Can we weather another ‘dip’?
If housing is the primary force behind the U.S. economic cycle, then the recession early warning bells just started ringing.
Sales of new single-family homes recorded a shocking fall in February, tumbling by 16.9 percent, to a seasonally adjusted 250,000 annual rate, hitting the lowest such figures since records began in 1963.
[…]
Put simply, far from being an engine of growth after several years of contraction, investment in housing looks to be a drag on the economy in 2011.“We continue to believe that this dip in housing will translate into a double dip on the overall U.S. economy, further rolling forward any stimulus-exit plans set by the Fed, and setting the stage for an announcement of QE3 in July,” said said Douglas Borthwick of Faros Trading. “Jobs and housing remain the focus for the Fed, and both areas continue to face severe difficulties.”
[…]
The number of properties in foreclosure hit a record 2.2 million in January, according to Lender Processing Services, while something on the order of one-in-five homeowners with a mortgage are in negative equity, with mortgage debt exceeding the value of the house. In Florida 20 percent of dwellings stand empty, a statistic implying not just a few quarters of slump in building but several years.This matters to the economy in two important ways. Firstly, housing activity, from building to buying to outfitting, is one of the prime drivers of the economic cycle. Secondly, if a slump is deep and protracted the bad debts it will produce will once again threaten to capsize the banking system.
[…]
“Of the components of GDP, residential investment offers by far the best early warning sign of an oncoming recession,” Leamer wrote.
A condo your Uncle Dave used to own in Reno is selling for less than 1/4 of what I sold it for seven years ago. With large numbers of unemployed giving up even trying to find jobs, who can afford even that?
#36 TeaDud
A Tax?!? To influence the behavior of business??!? Not letting the “market” decide how best to screw the public?
You crazy liberal you.
# 17 Rider – Foreclosures are down in Florida because of the collapse of the “robo signers”.
#44 TeaDud:
What, did you forget how to do the the pea/razorblade insult?
Remember kids, ideas are only good if they come from conservative/business icons – Taxes are slavery unless Trump says its ok.
#43 alf I attack idiots for fun not profit. I shit you not, your my favorite turd.
In the US, for every job five people looking for work there is one job right now.
Simple fact, during the last economic growth period (2000-2007) the richest 10 percent of Americans received 100% of average income growth. The richest 10 per cent of Americans are in good shape and there is plenty of economic activity there – so according the last 20 years of popular economic theories then the wealth should just trickle down, right?
From WW2 until 1980, the top 10% accounted for 30% of income growth. That was real “trickle down”.
Real wages have been decreasing in the US for the last 20 years, even if the tax rates have gone down to near historic lows (e.g. last 75 years). The reality is that the US standard of living is on the slide and this correction will take another 10-20 years to sort out.
Taxes have little to do with it (sorry alf) but the level of personal and governmental debt is the problem. Expect the best and brightest in the US to start leaving, expect service level jobs to be the norm for college grads, expect housing prices to drop in price until it matches current income levels. The market is correcting, and it’s going to hurt.
I’m so happy I don’t have a mortgage. My problem is that the city still taxes the crap out of me for my house even though the value has dropped significantly.
49 Poor alfie if that’s the best you can do I am disappointed. I might have gone this route for example. I once had a little dog. He was rather yappy and hard to house break. He would spew feces and urine where ever he chose. It took time and patience, and more than a few swats with a newspaper, before he got the idea to do his business outside. Someday with those same attributes your parents my have you potty trained too. Of course once they do, they will probably expect you to move out of the basement.
Oh as another note, do I recall you previously stating that you ARE a BUSINESS man and PROPERTY OWNER? Some what contradictory are we? So hard to keep those multiple stories going?
PS remember its the St Louis Regional Office. Hope to chat with you.
There is a correction to be made.
But they wont do it.
I have said it since the Late 70’s and early 80’s..
NO MIN WAGE..
ENFORCE a TOP WAGE.
ALL persons PAY INTO Social security..
AND the GOV. should run the RETIREMENT contracts.
HIRING a person should be a CONTRACT, not a UNION.
1 more thing…
They LOVE to do it to us, lets do it BACK..
FORCE international pricing.
AVERAGE the buying power of each nation for a SELL price. then they can sell it in the USA.
The USA is one of the biggest markets in the world. Prices should be reasonable..
AS prices FALL, people wont Bitch as much about wages.
#57, let me explain this in terms you can understand. God doesn’t want you to be rich, and all of your efforts to accumulate wealth are a futile battle to contradict God’s will for YOUR life. He already knows that you have no intention of helping the poor, but frankly it doesn’t take an omniscient deity to see that. No one would ever be confused on that point.
Whether or not America prospers, God wants YOU to learn lessons that can only come from poverty, so stop fighting it. Do you really think you deserve to be more wealthy than the Virgin Mary, mother of the Christ child? You really seem to think a lot of yourself.
Can I get an “Amen” or a “Praise the Lord”?
#22’s comment wins the thread.
-s
>Real wages have been decreasing in the US for the last 20 years, even if the tax rates have gone down to near historic lows (e.g. last 75 years).
Nope. Top income tax rate from 1987 to 1990 was 28%, then 31% after Bush Sr. tax increase. Both are lower rates than now, and at that time state income taxes were lower.
#60 what a coincidence that your historical perspective seems to start at 1987 (the figure you quoted didn’t start until 1988, but I won’t split hairs). 1987 was the first year since 1931 that the rate paid on top-bracket income was under 50%, so it was a very convenient year to begin your history.
There was a 55-year period when the rates ranged from 50% to 94% for top bracket income of those people who prospered so disproportionately due to the economic environment of our country. They weren’t being punished, they were simply paying more to help maintain the prosperous environment from which they had already benefited so greatly, and would presumably continue to benefit. Maintaining that environment is not without significant cost.
There’s a chart near the bottom of the page here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_tax_in_the_United_States
#62, it’s ironic that you of all people would quote a Biblical proscription against haughtiness. That seems to be your stock in trade on this blog. And did you happen to read the rest of that chapter, the context surrounding the passage you seem to think supported your point?
Here’s just a sample:
“(8) But if we have food and clothing, we will be content with that. (9) Those who want to get rich fall into temptation and a trap and into many foolish and harmful desires that plunge people into ruin and destruction. (10) For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil.”
(1Ti 6:8-10 NIV)
You need to find a way to become rich from your outstanding ability to cherry-pick scripture and ignore context. And by the way, that’s not God’s commands to the rich, as you described it. That was written by the Apostle Paul, and it’s in the Bible because the Church’s council voted to include it when they compiled the Bible.
Finally, if you’re only going to refer to comments by their numbers, at least get the number right. You often look like a moron when, like here, you refer to your own comment’s number when writing your reply. #57 was written by YOU.
#66 TeaDud
You should really edit for fact and lunacy as well.
#69 you’re absolutely right tcc3, but Christians will quickly dismiss their hatred as “righteous” hatred of Satan’s footsoldiers. Writing a Satan character into the plot gives them a plausible foundation for what would otherwise be sinful if they followed the New Covenant that the jack-sandaled Jesus shoved down their throats 😉
#71, You failed to dazzle us with anything resembling brilliance in your choice of Bible quotes, and its relevance here is highly questionable, just as is your professed love of the American people. Jesus was merely pointing out that the kings of the earth collect taxes from strangers and not their own children. Your translation of the Bible quotes him as saying, “Then the sons are free,” but many other translations use the word “exempt” rather than “free” so that people like you don’t mischaracterize it as bondage. If anything, this passage merely supports equality or fairness in taxation and nothing more. Sons or other favorites should not be exempt.
In any case, rather than doing honest work to pay the taxman, Jesus performed a magic trick and made the money appear in the mouth of a fish, which is very similar to something I saw in Vegas once.
#75, your interpretation of “freedom” for God’s children shows just how progressive Christianity really is, especially when compared to Judaism. You say “it is wrong to require anything from their hand,” but that certainly wasn’t always the case. My, how things have changed since days of yore. The richly adorned temples where God’s children once worshiped weren’t built out of your type of freedom, and neither were their public works and palaces built entirely with the plunder taken from the various tribes they attacked. Sadly, your god must have approved some sort of taxation on his people at some point.
Yes, Christianity certainly trumps Judaism in terms of freedom. Strong’s Concordance implied as much in explaining one definition for “ELEUTHEROS,” using the phrase “free from the yoke of the Mosaic Law.” That Mosaic Law was quite a yoke that God had placed on his chosen people, but he wanted his Christians to be free!
I’m delighted that although you recognize your God-given right to be free of all tax demands, you still pay up anyway almost out of sheer courtesy, lest you “stumble them.” You even make it sound like an act of charity on your part (though not given the least bit cheerfully) rather than any sort of real obligation to pay for maintaining the environment in which you’ve prospered.
It’s amazing what one can believe when they have a mind that fights logic at every turn. Perhaps if you moved to your spiritual home in Israel, God’s people there would recognize a Christian’s right to be free of all taxes, plus you certainly wouldn’t have to put up with America’s liberals anymore. You could finally be happy.
Gary, of course I used a narrow timeframe. I was responding to the idea that these are the lowest tax rates of the last 75 years, and pointed out that this is false.
If the housing slump were to actually end, liberals would continue their war on the middle class and push to make housing more expensive. They hate ‘suburban sprawl’ and would prefer people live in apartments and took public transportation.
#77 MikeN wrote, “Gary, of course I used a narrow timeframe. I was responding to the idea that these are the lowest tax rates of the last 75 years, and pointed out that this is false.”
You shouldn’t have been responding to that idea because that wasn’t what foobar said. He said they were NEAR historic lows, and in a range of 28% to 94%, I would argue that 35 is NEAR 28. And your use of a much narrower time frame than the 75 years that foobar stated seemed so unnatural as to be purposeful. However, if your exclusion of the many years when the rates were above 50% was completely inadvertent or you somehow thought it was irrelevant, then I apologize for assuming you did it with purpose.