Losses from extreme weather could top $1 trillion in a single year by 2040, a partnership of the United Nations Environment Program and private finance institutions has warned.
Speaking at a major UN climate meeting in Kenya, they said the estimated cost of droughts, storm surges, hurricanes and floods reached a record $US210 billion in 2005.
Such losses linked to global warming were expected to double every 12 years.
The new report was modelled by Andlug Consulting for UNEP FI’s Climate Change Working Group, whose members include Dresdner Bank, Bank of America, Swiss Re, UBS and HSBC.
The Andlug study said it seemed likely there would be a “peak year” of losses of more than $1 trillion before 2040.
“Since so much development is taking place in coastal zones the figure may arrive considerably before 2040,” it said.
“This is not an environmental doomsday scenario. This is simple, empirical work done between UNEP and the financial services sector.”
Financial institutions of this import don’t make structural preparations based on myth or rumor. They take as much or more convincing than governments. Not that the politics that drive the latter pay much attention to science, anyway.
Sounds like it won’t be a good year to be self insured.
yeah, but how many of those estimated dollars is inflated? I’ve had storm and other damage…and the estimates for repairs can be silly, outrageous and out-of-your-mind high, since the contractors know insurance is paying for it (with little or NO oversight) and the homeowner, typically has no clue what construction costs are.
So, yeah, want to see my neighbors 12,000 fence, or my 190,000 repair? Heck, we had water damage once, and the contractor tried to charge $500 a DAY for three fans (that don’t even cost 200 bucks to purchase!) The sheetrock removal was slated to cost $7,000. for one 12×12 room. Based on MY experiences…..these estimations are akin to the thousand dollar can opener sold to the Navy.
2. You are dead on. I too have lived in a hurricane ravaged area. I watched a neighbor who had (maybe) $5000.00 dollars worth of damage, and wasnt even going to report it (our insurance for wind storm is $500.00 per month, and afraid it would rise), change his mind when his attorney found him an insurance adjuster claiming $180,000.00 damage. The adjuster got 30% of the loot. Not sure what the crooked attorney got. The same neighbor bitches about the cost of insurance.
meetsy — please, we’re supposed to support FEMA pricing — aren’t we? You wouldn’t want these clowns have to get an honest job.
Prices do climb through the roof after a natural disaster. I live on the Carolina Coast part of hurricane alley. There is a labor and material shortage that drives up cost. Contractors ship crews in, and you’re paying extra for their boarding. Even then there’s months worth of waiting. I’m not saying there not gouging going on, just that there are some legitimate costs increases.
“#2”
also, I’m a carpenter’s son, I’m skeptical about these estimates also.
wouldn’t people just stop living in those areas that are hit the worst, i mean the main reason the damage costs are so consistent is that people go back and rebuild, but if its reaches a certain point it’ll be too risky or pricey to live in those areas due to damage costs
Well mike, if you got $12,000 for a $600 fence wouldn’t you build another one?
WokTiny, your father is a descendant of Noah, right?
There’s a solution… bring in all the materials needed to rebuild, hire professionals to oversee the projects and get the people to donate their time and rebuild. “Habitat for Humanity” proves it can work.
8. You are talking about ALL of the Caribbean, Southeast, and East Coast as far North as NYC. Where would they go, Houston? The thing to do is build as strong as possible. My house was undamaged because its built from 12 inch native stone, with concrete posts, reinforced with rebar. People who rebuild the same way are asking for trouble. Yet even as strong as the house is, my insurance (in the USVI) is over $450/ mth for $200,000.00 coverage. I cant afford more than that. our insurance isnt subsidized by govt the way it is in the states, (at least used to be, I dont know if they still do that).
I guess we’ll just have to hold off on letting the third world upgrade those tents a little while longer.
Global warming, right. Aren’t we supposed to be having hurricanes left and right. How many have we had this year?
The climate and enviroment go in a continous cycle. Are we trying to stop or reverse this cycle? Looking through history, our present wheather cycle isn’t that bad, that’s without going back to the Ice Age or to the age when Dino’s were supposed to roam the earth.
Why wouldn’t storm damage continue to rise in cost. Aren’t we trying to improve the live and living standards of other countries, at the cost to our own living standard, doesn’t it follow that the cost in the buildings and other structures will also increase. Look just here in the US at the increasing cost of a house, just within the last couple years.
To the current administration, more big disasters would be a good thing: more no-bid “reconstruction” contracts to Halliburton that never actually have to be fulfilled.
Traxx,
Don’t think you understand…..it costs a set dollar amount for materials, and labor. It’s a manufacturing process…..and the costs might vary from area-to-area, but not by much. When something happens…(and I don’t mean just hurricanes…and natural disasters, what happens if say your waterheater bursts in the middle of the night flooding your downstairs rooms)…there are people “on the take” that swoop down like vultures, or more precisely, like attorneys chasing ambulances….and up the cost, find some expert to make outrageous claims, and everyone makes a tidy little sum.
The result…everyone wants a piece of that action….and the contractors who go crooked get hooked by greed, and the attorneys get their fees, and maybe the adjusters get some “kick backs”. This is how these numbers get inflated.
When it comes to a natural disaster (or other disaster) there need to be some oversight. The reality is….there is no reason that something like plywood should suddenly skyrocket in price, that something like nails should triple in cost, and certainly no reason that a schmuck with a hammer should charge what amounts to $400 dollars an hour!
Happens though.
So, I just said….that the “estimates” in the article presented in the blog are probably way inflated….
Inflated estimates, apocryphal neighbors, crooked lawyers, strong buildings, and windstorm stories? Has this forum has taken leave of its senses. Rainfall and storm surge account for 70 percent of weather disaster dollar losses and eighty percent of the deaths. Sixteen inches of rainfall combined with a twenty foot storm surge doesn’t leave a lot of house behind to repair. Growing coastal development plus a shrinking coastline means a watery equilibrium.
“Last month, US President George W Bush rejected the Kyoto agreement, declaring the plan dead since its targets for cutting emissions would harm the US economy.” (BBC, April 2001 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1284530.stm)
How much do you think it will cost the US economy to have Los Angeles, New York and every other coastal city six feet under water? Or to move them to higher ground?
so why are we mad again..
land barons are used to th shaft
#9 with equal surety as everyone else’s father. Yes, that is a logically meaningless statement. Also, I don’t see how it matters. My dad personally built 18 houses, so, as a family, we know a bit about building and building costs. I tend to think (as mentioned earlier in #2 & #3) that the costs are high because of insurance companies… just like medical costs.
#8 & #10 … don’t you think there should be laws (building codes) enforcing stronger structures in such areas?
Global Warming(TM) is easy to solve. Set off a few nukes to begin a Nuclear Winter effect. Balance it just right and we’re fine.
18. #8 & #10 … don’t you think there should be laws (building codes) enforcing stronger structures in such areas?
Absolutely, and they did in the Virgin Islands. Unfortunately the building codes up to 1995 (Hurricane Marilyn) were a joke and they cannot make them retroactive. So most of the structures, some built in the 1600’s, and protected as historic buildings, will never be updated. When I built, the codes were strictly enforced. I hate the insurance companies, but understand that fraud is partly to blame for the extravagant premiums.
#16 – got 2 sets of 2 words, you choose which one to go look up
shield wall
coffer dam