Strap yourself in: We’re in for the return of Cold War politics, the rise of new dominant powers, and a full-blown space war, according to a new book. What are the chances his dire predictions will come true?
Written in 20 year increments, The Next 100 Years by George Friedman looks out over our coming century, with an eye towards geopolitics and international power. In the next twenty years, Friedman predicts that the global war on terror, which he terms the US-Jihadist war, will be winding down, a smaller conflict that will have little consequence after all is said and done.
Instead, numerous problems will crop up in the former Soviet bloc as Russia works to regain its former power by reclaiming older territories through economic growth and outright bullying.
[… A] major point of conflict in the next century, especially in the next fifty years as populations begin to drop, won’t be over immigrants illegally entering countries, it will be over which countries can lure in the most new workers to help prop up their own economies and lagging workforces.
While the major powers around the world such as the United States and Russia will have economic slowdowns during this stretch, smaller nations will use this opportunity to rise on their own.
Lots, lots more, if you read the full review. Or the book.
Definitely interesting book, when you reading it as an illustration of general mechanism – and not as a prediction.
Even expert opinion is only right about 50% of the time.
Are we headed for a new cold war in space? My own crystal ball says no.
Capitalization is going to get tighter and tighter to the point where the space age may soon be over, as no country can afford the luxury to launch. High speed fiber communications will eliminate the need for satellite communications and cell tower triangulation will be just as good as GPS satellites. US’s replacement for the Shuttle is still not ready, and the ISS is set to be decommissioned in 2016 with no plans of any replacement. Thus the high cost and lack of need could eliminate our interest in space all together.
Resource depletion is going to be the key factor over the next century. Ugly, messy, and deadly resource wars are far more likely than “cold wars”.
Qualifies appropriately as science fiction.
I imagine he’ll sell well to the same people who still are searching for a miracle diet.
Or miracles in general.
It’s good to hold the high ground. Space is the high ground.
Cell tower triangulation is great when looking for a Starbucks. It’s pretty much useless when looking for Pitcairn Island.
I got a prediction for ya – in 3 years the sun’s gonna fry almost all the earth’s technology in an intense CME. Everything electronic that’s not prepared for an EMP is gonna be burnt. Hopefully that means people are gonna behave and help each other. Unfortunately balistic missles and nuclear weapons are hidden in protected bunkers. We’d be lucky to have another cold war.
Paper covers rock, scissors cut paper, rock breaks scissors, global warming melts cold war.
“Russia works to regain its former power by reclaiming older territories through economic growth”
Isn’t this part a stupid prediction?
Russia is in the midst of steep population decline and will only have 50% of its current population in 50 years.
How can a decline in population — which is a decline in workers — have economic growth or even enough disposable men to be playing “war games”?
(A “cold war” with China is reasonable, but I don’t see China named).
Read the book. Manned battle platforms in space using energy weapons. Turkey to become a super regional power. Mexico to become U.S.’s long term major threat. China to break up because of ancient regional conflicts. 100 years is a long time to put all these assumptions back to back and see the future world landscape. Good read if you realize the author and most of the readers will not be able to verify most of the predictions.
George Foreman has the same correct percentage rate on his predictions.
From the book synopsis:
“Japan, (on Thanksgiving day, around 2050) will attempt to destroy one of these orbiting platforms from lunar initiated strikes, to maximize the shock value and surprise, in a move reminiscent of the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941, propelling the countries into war”
^^ Ok, that’s flat out silly.
In Space? We can’t even get into space. This is all BS. No advancement in space technology = no war. War is a good reason to jump start it again however so I’m all for it even if it’s not going to happen. Who wants me to help spread the word around and get everyone scare? 🙂
Whoever controls the moon can control the earth. It is the most important strategic location available anywhere near earth and the Chinese weren’t even in the space race when all those ‘No War in Space’ treaties were signed. Even if they signed them I’m sure they wouldn’t hesitate to violate them and neither will anybody else.
Robert Heinlein wrote about how the moon can dominate earth by magnetically lobbing large rocks in tin cans in the 1950s.
Whether we understand this or not the Chinese do and that makes Uncle Sam nervous as hell.
Read a book written about 100 years ago with predictions for the 20th century. A lot more fun.
Futurologists are all alike: they have no fucking clue.
So there will be war in cyber-space, outer space and the astral plane. Are we missing something? How ’bout the sewers? I bet you could have a war in the sewers!
Space is cold. – PadmĂ© Amidala