Geez. An incredibly gloomy gus.
Found by Wayne Bronikowski.
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Maybe this guy can get with your friend Horrorwitz and write “The Rupture” for sale to the religious crowd that likes this sort of doom and gloom.
Not only gloomy. Absurd!
We’re in the 70’s to date for 2009.
Tell him to get new batteries for his crystal ball.
This is Doom and Gloom when compared to the normal CNBS fare.
I’m amazed they let this guy talk. If he was sitting across the desk from Kudlow or Kneale or any of the other _________ (insert your own unkind adjective here) talking heads he would have been shouted down right out of the gate.
IMHO CNBS is reacting to criticism from the financial blog community and very gingerly sticking their collective toes in the reality pool.
with ALL these experts..
Why didnt they see what was happening??
And, of course, those that got government assistance because they were “too big to fail” are even bigger today.
Suckers!!!!!!!!
Thank you for this informative post.
And thank you for having one of the best blogs on the Internet.
That’s right and before 2000 the “experts” said DOW to 30,000; and before the meltdown in 2008 the “experts” said oil to $200 a barrel by Christmas (on Christmas 2008 oil was $34/bbl);
John you know as well as anyone media needs compelling content, sadly even financial news is becoming garbage. Notice how nobody in media ever spends a 3 hour special event titled “How media got xyz story so totally wrong.” They report all kinds of crap, if you don’t study it you don’t know what to think, and when they are wrong the just put it in a footnote and move on.
A good site to follow this is Calculated Risk. That site is doing a count as they happen and we are only up to 81, so far.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/Bank%20Failure
Not “gloom and doom,” a _mild_ version of reality unlike the typically simplistic partial story or even completely incorrect analysis of economic data coming from the mainstream corporate financial media. A huge number of banks are insolvent, especially the “too big to fail banks” and the fed is spending 250 BILLION dollars of _borrowed_ money every QUARTER to paper it over while the FDIC intentionally isn’t doing it’s job. This is all covered here:
http://market-ticker.org/
in great detail on a regular basis.
This is similar to the Japanese experience in their real estate crash and we’re doing much the same as they did: hiding the problem. Except for us, the problem is even worse and much more costly.
And, BTW, want to learn what’s actually going on. Read “Bailout Nation.” Best book by far that I’ve read on the subject. And spend the time to watch this UCLA Hammer Forum interview with William Black, former liquidation director in charge of investigating the S&L disaster who was instrumental in sending 1000 banksters TO JAIL at the time. He explains this mess, how it happened, how it’s being covered up, and why there hasn’t been a SINGLE indictment in the current crisis while there should be many tens of thousands:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2009/08/16.html
Once you become informed, if you continue to believe in “green shoots,” they must be the hallucinogenic plants in your back yard that you’ve ingested.
And here’s a shorter interview with William Black on PBS, much shorter than the one above, but still highly revelatory:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html
Bottom line on this ENTIRE crisis: FRAUD, massive, rampant fraud at every level allowed by the elimination of important regulations put in place after the Great Depression, nearly complete non-enforcement of remaining regulations by regulatory agencies because of the individuals appointed to be “in charge” (“in charge” of _nothin_g as it turned out), etc. Thousands of still very wealthy people should be under indictment right now, but they aren’t. Those who brought us the crisis should have been fired… but they’re all still in charge. Why no indictments or firings? Because if they reached the courts, the frauds and _continuing_ frauds (about insolvent bank “solvency”) would be uncovered and the market optimism which is currently based upon that continuing fraud would be destroyed.
I’m coming off a week-long illness, but this is making me sick again:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mary-schapiro-we-need-signifcantly-more-money
“As a reminder, The SEC’s budget is nearly $913 million dollars, spread over 3,600 people, or over $250,000 per person. Judging by the SEC’s phenomenal historical performance of achieving absolutely nothing aside from catching one plane-jumping self-admitted ponzier, and allowing the Bank of America bonus lawsuit to take a few too many turns for the surreal, it is a practical certainty that Wall Street will make sure D.C. allocates a few extra billion to keep the SEC happily efficient in its track record of catching exactly zero notable Wall Street based criminals. After all, that’s what shareholder/taxpayer subsidized fines are for.”
Yeah, Winston! William Black is absolutely the one to listen to on this. He helped lock up hundreds, how many charged in this(two orders of magnitude) larger bustup? ZERO!
The commercial real estate troubles are going to peak over the next three or four years. Small banks stayed away from individual risky lending, but they lined up to toss money at CRE developers. Smaller banks aren’t going to become zombie banks, they will get taken over by the FDIC as needed.
Over a few years it is not unreasonable to posit 1000 little banks going bust.
The big banks that are actually broke, but everyone pretends not to notice, are likely to be a stronger long term danger to the economy.
If the big guys got taken over (BoA, Citi, CapitalOne) everyone in the market would crap themselves. The next time an enormous bailout is needed it might not be politically possible. Stock up on wet wipes now!
I’d like to be cheerful but I’d say you guys have done your homework.
In a lot of ways I like the little banks better than the big banks. The people at the top of the big banks are scum which may of course explain why they have so many good friends in Congress and the Present Administration. They have the money to pay big bribes though I think they prefer to call them donations.
Expert?
Bwahahahahaha…
My mates made a movie about this like 2 years ago:
1000 banks
the film that changed the minds of mexico
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhjIKiGrweo