Swine flu could hospitalize 2 million in U.S. this winter — latimes.com — It could be this, it could be that. DO all these vague comments make us confident in these agencies?
As many as 300,000 could clog intensive care units in heavily affected regions, a new report says. But the CDC director notes that the H1N1 outbreak also could be much milder.
Nearly 2 million Americans could be hospitalized during this winter’s novel H1N1 influenza pandemic, with as many as 300,000 clogging intensive care units in heavily affected regions, according to a report released Monday by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
Overall, 20% to 40% of the population could develop symptoms of the strain commonly known as swine flu, and 30,000 to 90,000 could die, according to the report. During a normal flu season, the virus kills about 35,000 Americans.
So, to summarize, they really have no clue.
#27 I agree that there would seem to be an increase in factors contributing to possible pandemics. However, there are also other factors working to stop pandemics: sanitation, public health, and unknown environmental factors. Having worked in areas afflicted with endemic diseases I sincerely hope that there is not a pandemic anytime soon if ever; the experience is particularly heart-wrenching even for the most callous.
some think that the next “big one” will be caused by bacteria carrying a prophage, others champion the role of ‘in the wild’ viruses or prions, while a few others think environmental mutagens will be to blame. I’m not sure.
Anyone who is really interested in the research about infectious diseases, possible outbreaks, and the field of epidemiology and public health should check out the free journal Emerging Infectious Diseases published by the CDC. Don’t let the government publisher put you off, there are articles from pretty much every prestigious school of medicine around the world; and information on stuff that flies under the media’s radar. Funny that the CDC seems to be respected more in foreign countries than the USA.
Also, I don’t really consider myself an expert as I don’t even have my PhD yet — is there even an end!?
There is a large amount of free information and introductory texts on infectious diseases, and public health in general. Try to not take popular titles like “Demon in the Freezer” too seriously, fun but slightly sensationalist — need to sell books you know.
My favorite intro text is “Epidemiology” by Leon Gordis and the “Brock Biology of Microorganisms” Brock, Madigan et al (might need a little knowledge of organic chemistry for this one).
I might try and cajole one of the docs to post here; however most of them are overworked, afraid of litigation, and not technically savvy — “blog?? do you mean bog??”
#32–wumpus==thanks. I was thinking bacterium would be too easy to defeat so finding out about prophages will be interesting. Those fresh stream water flesh eating protozoa sound awesome. Why things like that just don’t “take over” is beyond me.
To give you the novice view, I think of sanitation and public health NOT as pandemic stoppers but as density contributors. ie==without those things, we would have smaller populations with smaller pandemics. Its only with the advent of sanitation and public health combined with known environmental factors ((eg-more food)) that unsupportable freakishly high densities of human flesh can be maintained to provide meat for the truly horrible world wide pandemic.
I don’t know what the unknown environmental factors are. (smile.)
Thanks for the reference:
http://cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/index.htm
#33
I guess I am on the nursing-computer science-epidemiology side. Public Health is truly an integrative discipline, we need more maths and CS folks.
Wow, bobbo, you have some issues.
The few times I’ve been allowed to fully understand the personal history of anti-religious bigots, there was some religious person who screwed them over, bad.
If that is your case, I am truly sorry. (for what that’s worth.)
My own religious group was horribly victimized by atheists — driven from our homes, imprisoned, starved, even murdered in an effort to purge society of the supposed cancer of our religion.
As I listened to these first-hand stories from our elderly about unimaginable hurt at the hands of atheists who considered themselves superior, I marveled at their ability to forgive and be free.
I’m not sure why I am telling you this except, perhaps, because you seem like a decent guy who maybe doesn’t understand that Christian-atheist conflict is a two-way street.
#36–Greg==I thought about it, and posted anyway. You see, as I stated, your response, right THERE in #36 is what irritates me. The waste of a brain turned to mush by what I can only assume IS this religion you claim to have.
I don’t need to have been “hurt” to develop this antithesis to ignorance. I’m just not coddling you. Just like Einstein.
* big·ot
* Pronunciation: \ˈbi-gət\
* Function: noun
* Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
* Date: 1660
: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance /// Well, its not race or ethnicity so is it still bigotry? If I am a bigot, then what are you? What is your god?? So, its not your membership in a group/any group I object to. Its the soul destroying stupidity of your belief system that dehumanizes man that I object to. Its not just religion, the same applies to all similar ignorant belief systems==politics, astrology, vegans, Mother Gaia, all sorts of things. Religion is just a very rough first filter. This was telegraphed when I equivocated between liking/not liking you. I’m much more open, yet closed, than a mere few hundred words can explain.
I assume you and I could get along quite well until . . . . x,y,z arose. I don’t know what subject would ruin us. Some disparaging remark about a gay person, some desired rule against a woman’s right to choose. I’ve never met a person who wanted to pray over food that didn’t also have something really disgusting they wanted to impose on their fellow man in the name of their good christian love.
I don’t have to experience the gulag to say I don’t want to experience the gulag. I can read. I can think. I can extrapolate.
This is SO STUPID I can’t believe you can’t stifle yourself and its why I dislike you: “you were victimized by atheists.” Yea, and thats why I am afraid of you. You discriminate against a whole group of people because of a label you choose to hang on them. Thats what religious people do. Not all religious people. Just the religious people I can’t stand.
“understand that Christian-atheist conflict is a two-way street.” /// I disagree. Its a one way street. People who believe they are the one and only way do evil to other people. Doesn’t matter if they are religious or atheist in their motivating ideology. Its the same mechanism. Believe as I say or I will punish you. Atheism hardly ever demands that submission for atheism alone==always for something else like collectivism or your land, money, military servitude==but not for atheism. Religion is almost always just exactly that. God for instance. Submit to me or burn forever.
I understand YOU, and in that understanding know that you don’t understand much of anything. It can be hidden it casual interactions. Get over 3 dozen words and the facade is usually cracked.
I mean this in the highest of mutual good will. There is a “surface” and a deeper appreciation. What do you really deeply think of people who ride pink unicorns? What do you really think of sublime mysteries???
Ignorance is to be avoided no matter how sweetly it is encouraged.
Sure they have a clue. If you are in fragile health the flue may kill you.
#38–do-ill==you’re talking regular flu. This flu is a worry because it favors the young and healthy–those 50 years and younger.
Knowledge is power.
Ignorance is . . . . . . .
Good basic SCIENTIFIC review of swine flu and fairly readable too. Course, it is a “government source” so tin hats should be strapped down tight.
# 14 McCullough:
“Personally..getting the flu doesn’t bother me.”
“It’s just the sniffles and a sore throat for crying out loud, stop being such a pussy.”
Then what you have is not the flu. The flu is ten or more days of misery with the occasional life-threatening pneumonia complication.
By the way, this blog is THE ONLY PLACE I have heard any talk of forced vaccinations.
# 23 Sagrilarus & #24 wumpus:
Thank you — you put it better than I was able to.
Our local paper mentioned that the regular seasonal flu vaccine will be available here in two or three weeks. I plan to get one as soon as I can get down there, and to get the Type A/H1N1 vaccine as soon as it arrives.
Who here has been vaccinated already?
What movie is that from?