The apparently successful launch of an Iranian satellite looks very different from Washington than it does from Tehran.
For the Iranian government, it is an important milestone along the road to reclaiming Persia’s ancient claim to major power status, which it feels the jealous west is trying to deny it.
It is also enormously significant in Iranian internal politics. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad got elected promising economic benefits for the common man and modernisation. He has made a complete mess of the first part of that mission. Delivering the second is important for his prospects of re-election in June, in the eyes of both the average voter and – even more importantly, given the controlled nature of Iranian democracy – the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
From Washington and some other western capitals, the launch is seen primarily through the prism of Iran’s nuclear project. The capacity to put an object into space together with the feared capability to build a nuclear device, spells – for some at least – the eventual threat of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US.
For that reason, the satellite launch has a direct and immediate bearing on the debate over the US missile defence scheme. Barack Obama has announced a review period during which the whole project will be weighed up, in light of criticisms that it is unnecessary, or does not work, or both. That decision brought immediate benefits in the relationship with Moscow, which felt threatened by the deployment of missile interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic. The Bush administration insisted the system was a shield against Iran; the Russians saw it pointing at them.
Analysis: How world leaders view Iran’s space ambitions | guardian.co.uk — Is this the predicted “surprise” for Obama?
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I wonder if all the flags surrounding the lauch pad caught fire.
There goes the neighborhood…
Excuse me? We know all about their nuclear ambitions and how many centrifuges they have but somehow they managed to build a space vehicle and a launching facility and we haven’t heard a word? There better be some heads rolling.
A less important question: Is this just a Sputnik that will go beep-beep for a while then burn up? Or have the Iranians launched something that will be there for a while? Comms? Spy? What the hell is it? Guess I’ll have to go look. The Guardian didn’t bother to tell us.
I read a while back – although I would be hard pressed to produce it now – that the real reason Russia was against the missile shield in Eastern Europe was because it reduced Russian leverage in the “Breakaway Republics”.
Russia still considers these republics as part of their “sphere of influence”, and rightfully theirs to control. The Russians also know that they cannot directly threaten these republics without serious consequences. So how do they influence these republics without looking like the bad guy?
Let someone else do the bullying/threatening, someone the Russians have close ties with but where they can still claim “Plausible Deniability”. Someone, say, like Iran.
Let Iran indirectly threaten Eastern Europe (and the rest of Europe as well), and then watch as the “good” Russians “intercede” on Europe’s behalf.
With a few concessions, of course.
Let’s be very, very clear on one point. Putin is not a nice guy. It is not above him to assassinate reporters/opponents/anybody who gets in his way. He was the head of the KBG. A little cloak and dagger could go a long, long, way.
But along came Bush and ransacked those best laid plans.
Let’s be very, very clear on this. The American missile shield is all about not allowing Russia to politically or economically re-annex the Baltic States.
# 3 Nimby said, “but somehow they managed to build a space vehicle and a launching facility and we haven’t heard a word?”
Umm, no. This has been known for a long time. YOU are just reading about it today.
Things are going well for the Iranians. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a noisy little guy that deserves watching. I hope our intelligence was onto the launch before it happend. A launch pad is hard to hide, specially for these guys. Unless they got their handws on some old soviet mobile launchers and missles, for example the OTR-21. Now that would be scary. Nuclear warfare in the middle east could be just around the corner. Hope that missle defense system is worth all the tax dollars it absorbed.
Speaking of “world views” being different, I wonder if the world will view a second election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the same way they viewed the second election of BushtheRetard?
Any nation that would elect a proven loser like that is pretty well showing the world its evil intent. We should let Israel have its way with Iran should that happen. Wait a month if its someone else.
Ah Yea,
Jesus H. Christ dude!!! Get a metal helmet on quick like. WOW, is that some wild ass claim you made there.
You know, I once read a book about this dude. I don’t remember the title but there were lots of pictures. And so anyway, the dude got hit on the head by something and he became firmly convinced that the sky was falling. The dude went scurrying around telling everyone that the sky was falling. And no one would listen. They would only laugh st him.
So Ah Yea, HA HA HA HA
#8 LOL. Good one.
ANOTHER step to the ICBM..
Add GPS and controlled reentry and AWAY WE GO..
#8 Mr Fusion
Ah Yea actually is pretty close to spot on with his assessment. I have recently seen some information that backs up what he says.
If you don’t believe that Putin and his regime don’t want to exert their influence over that part of the world and try and rebuild the USSR then you are sadly mistaken and uninformed.
Seriously uninformed.
To this story, I say so what? Unless and until Iran does something offensive with the rocket, we shouldn’t do anything.
We should concentrate on our own defensive technologies (yes, the missile shield would be at the top of that list).
But if those nutjobs do something damaging to us, we should punish them with all we’ve got and essentially destroy the country and make it unlivable (even more than it is now).
So Iranians are not allowed to have satellites? There is zero evidence that they have any plans to attack any legitimate, peaceful country. But if another country is threatening them, it’s self-defense, no?)
Now that Obama has opened negotiations (a long-overdue step for peace), I think we have little to worry about.
[Duplicate comment deleted. Please don’t double post! – ed.]
Maybe we should open up tourism between our two countries. We could flood them with decadent westerners. That would destabilize their dictatorship pretty quick.
So let me get this straight. Iran’s plan is, in true Boris Badenough style, to acquire nukes, laugh maniacally and then launch them at Israel or Europe? This is the current thinking? Are y’all serious?
Nukes are not a practical offensive weapon. They are mostly defensive in nature and offer the state a huge deterrent to invasion. Clearly Iran needs these to secure their own state against attack.
Now while this will alter the balance of power in the region, and probably not for the best, I’m not convinced that the threat is a launch from Iran. The perceived threat is that the West and Israel will lose the ability to attack THEM with impunity.
#15–Hugh==why would you not take years of Iranian Officials saying they want nukes to wipe Israel from the map at their word? – – “Never Again.”
Just another guys opinion to the same point here:
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/11/will_iran_launch_an_unprovoked_nuclear_first_strike_against_israel.php
#16 Bobbo
Seems to me its all just smack talk, much like Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ rhetoric, designed to rally their own population. Iran knows that if it strikes with nukes it will sign a warrant for its own annihilation. Those in charge of Iran might be religious nuts but they are not stupid.
I can see why Israel would be concerned with the ‘wipe them off the map’ rhetoric coming from Iran, but I think their real concern is that they will lose the ability to initiate a strike.
Of course their is always talk of a ‘4th Protocol’ type mini nuke being smuggled into a country and let off, but I’m really not sure how possible this is outside of fiction.
Wow, bobbo! Your link is excellent!
Scary, but essentially correct.
The Iranians are no more likely to launch a nuclear strike than anyone else, but…
One nuke in downtown Tel Aviv could ruin Israel while enormously enhancing Tehran’s standing in the Arab world, even at a horrendous cost to themselves.
“Just sing out a Te Deum when you see that ICBM”
According to NASA, the satellite has an orbit longevity of at best 2 months. We’ll see.
Har!