AP Photo by Alex Brandon
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It often happens that the pundit “scoring” of a presidential debate ends up quite at odds from the polls of viewers that soon follow.
We’ve seen it again with Friday night’s debate, which most pundits (on TV and in print) scored very or fairly even, with perhaps some recognition that Obama made some small gains because he pretty much held his own on McCain’s turf. Of course, as we now know, virtually every poll taken by the networks and outside sources gave Obama an edge — and not a small one. He easily swept surveys of undecideds, even carried a Fox focus group. At least in the polls, it was no contest.
We’ll see if and how it affects the head-to-head matchup surveys in days ahead but for now we have to ask: Why did so many mainstream pundits blow it?
Of course, there is always the striving for “balance,” the effects of pre-spinning, and in some cases their favoring of McCain from the outset. And, to be frank, McCain gave a pretty good account of himself.But many pundits threw out the window what they, and others, had said beforehand, about Obama needing to appear presidential and seem expert on international matters. When he did just that in the debate, they suddenly forgot the importance they had placed on it beforehand.
But here’s the key to the viewer/pundit disparity. It took awhile for McCain to build up to it but then he hammered it home near the end: Obama, he charged, lacked the “knowledge and experience” to be president…
But the pundits barely recognized that the “experience” charge was a non-starter — and that’s why they scored the debate fairly even even as viewers seem to have rated it a landslide for Obama.
I didn’t watch the so-called debate. But, I am a news junkie and, spending the time I do wandering the minority of newspaper sites truly concerned with news, I agree with Greg Mitchell – that the “undecided” are simply starting to make up their minds.
Obviously, that doesn’t include the pundits.
# 10 jbenson2 –
Yes McCain’s spending offer is intriguing. Will he change his economic plan to reflect this freeze?
McCain’s current plan is more expensive in that it adds more to the deficit than Obama’s. “Senator Obama’s plan would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt (including additional interest costs) while Senator McCain’s plan would add $4.3 trillion.”
I thought that McCain did well in the debate even though I was very impressed with Obama ( and already lean that way). But afterwards the pundits were pointing out factual errors that McCain had made. so it surprises me that now it is seen that the pundits rated it as a tie.
BTW, the posting style of this article is odd. It is in quotes with no direct reference where it came from. There is a link inside the quote itself. I did a google phrase search to understand that the link went to the same place.
The answer is simple:
Media pundits make more money if the race is tied.
@21 isn’t that more a reflection of the readership of the Drudge Report?
I mean look at this:
http://mediacurves.com/
All the Drudge poll tells me is that a lot more Republicans probably read that site the Dems.
Also, I think the pundits score it a draw despite polling data because Independents skew Dem (and aren’t as likely to vote) so all the data was in conformity with what is typically shown. Not breaking expectation is a draw.
No one should’ve really thought a KO blow would land, either. It could happen in the VP debate, but it wasn’t going to happen in this one. Their both far too crafty to make a big mistake.
#33 – accurate. When interviewed for this month’s VF, Murdoch said he’d like Obama to win…why? Because it will sell more papers.
@35
eh
Murdoch leans liberal, as can be seen in the contributions to liberals by Newscorp.
It amuses me that the parent company of Fox News puts more money to Dems, and the Fox News arm gives more money to Republicans (mind you the contributions by Newscorps are way larger than the contributions by Fox News, they don’t balance out).
The difference is they take opinion polls from people who obviously didn’t even watch the debate. McCain won this one hands down. Anybody who watched and has a brain has to agree.
The pundits have to be liberal so they called it even. People who like Obama think he won. Pundits who have to keep their jobs call it even. Everybody else knows McCain won. Business as usual.
#11 – J. Benson II
>>Obama’s ritualistic invocation of early
>>childhood education as deserving ever more
>>funding is a reminder, of the immaturity of
>>contemporary liberalism. (gimme more, gimme
>>more!)
And this differs how, in principle, from the Wall Street Welfare Babies? The billionaire CEOs and their golden parachutes?
Everybody wants something. Government has to do SOMETHING with all the money they have. And at least Obama’s plans benefit Americans in some way, unlike the continuing hemorrhage of money into incompetent, overpaid Wall Streeters and CEOs lining up for government Food Stamps.
#28 – Helz
>>stinkers like saying “John is right” 50 times
Come on. You’ve been watching McBush’s attack ad too often.
Anyone who watched the debate knows that when Obama said “John is right” (and he didn’t say it anything close to 50 times), he was just being polite. “John is right” on some minor technicality, but he went on to point out how he was completely f&cking delusional on the main point.
The only criticism of Obama that sticks is that he didn’t pay enough attention to slime tactics (like the Swift Boat Liars) in the last election.
He won’t be making that mistake again.
“None of it really matters. We’re all screwed and gonna die.”
I think that says it all.
Whoever takes the helm should be ready to handle the next big thing which will be Russia’s serious attempt to put “defensive” long range weaponry in Central and South America countries, ala Cuba (1962). History does indeed repeat itself.
meh.
skip the polls, skip the pundits, check the various parimutuel betting sites and futures markets and see where people are putting their money if you wanna know what people really think.
# 39 Mustard.. During my career I prepped many people to speak with the media. One of the first things you tell someone going on TV is not to say something that can be clipped into a great soundbite for the competition (or in Obama’s case, your rival). I noticed Obama saying “John is right” throughout the debate. Obviously ’50 times’ is an exaggeration for effect -the point is, saying it at all not only gave McCain a great soundbite (I knew that ad was coming the second Obama said the words), but also didn’t send a great message. There were other ways Obama could have said the same thing.
You can support a candidate and still see the flaws in their public speaking technique. You can bet his media relations people have already coached him on this and he won’t do it next time.
Obama clearly won the debate, overwhelmingly. Obama has consistently demonstrated clarity, intelligence, ideas, steadfastness, a command of the issues and of ways to resolve them, which will work effectively.
Why is it that McCain never responded to any of Obama’s shots at him? Because they are true, based on fact. On the other hand, Obama had to frequently counter McCain’s falsehoods. Although he was forced to waste time, doing so, he still had plenty of time left to make a cogent case.
I appreciate the CNN coverage, but I’m disappointed when I hear that they find Obama is not an inspiration. I think that the president needs to present a clear plan, demonstrate a reliable, calm and responsible approach and work for Americans. He is not an entertainer. I was inspired because I appreciate his outlook and attitude. I appreciate his preparedness.
He does not insult the American public by suggesting that a person who graduated bottom of his class from military college would be adequate to lead such a great country. He does not insult us by choosing a running mate in a snap decision –a woefully ignorant person.
Obama does inspire. If elected, he will be the greatest president the U.S. has ever had.
#43 – Helz
Looks like Obie learned his lesson. Not only did he not say “John is right” once (although McBush DID say it one time about Obie), but he DOMINATED McBush in last night’s debate.
The little “opinion graph” under the picture on CNN showed Obama pegging the redline many times among the undecided voters (both men and women); McBush’s reception was tepid at best.