You got your red, and you got your blue
Election Projection – 2004 Edition
I. Purpose
This formula’s intent is to give a general sense of how the President would fare if the elections were held today. As we move closer to election day, its usefulness as a prediction tool will increase.II. Objectivity
In developing the formula, I made every effort to be objective, rather than biased toward Bush. Yes, I am a huge supporter of the President, but this formula does not, in any way, falsely inflate Bush’s standing.
Electoral Vote has been doing a similar job latelty too (with very similar numbers), and they have a syndication feed.
This site is far superior to that one: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Much more information and laid out in a logical manner. And while he’s pro-Kerry, because he updates everyday, his numbers are more reliable. Indeed, the last day that election-projection updated, electoral-vote.com had the same tallies. However, with some new polls which the site I suggested incorporates, but the one Dvorak has not, both candidates go down as two states hit undecided.
Pretty good site. Personaly I prefer electoral-vote.com. It’s interesting that the two have nearly indentical numbers.
Someone complained about the lateness of these posts…sorry for taking so long to moderate. But it’s now even more interesting that three posts showed up promoting the competitive site.
So does this mean a lot of democrats will be seeing red on election day?
Not a vote-guess site, but election related:
http://www.fundrace.org/
Interesting to see one effect of requirements to register campaign contributions – since you can search by zipcode, and see names & addresses for contributors, and how much they contributed.
I believe President Bush will be re-elected this year. It will be a tight race, but Senators Kerry http://kerry.senate.gov/ and Edwards http://edwards.senate.gov/ are not risking much by running for office while still serving in the U.S. Senate. This should give Bush a few points. That may be enough to help pull out a win. The commercials are already screaming about missed Senate votes. It’s not a big issue, but it’s one of those things that makes people think. I might be totally wrong as well. I think this whole absent from the Senate, missed ‘key’ votes drum will keep getting louder. Being a senator is nice, but it won’t help Kerry become president. It can only hurt his chances. It seems like a retarded political strategy.
I’ll be taking bets right after the Republican convention…
Abe Lincoln ran while in Office and so did Kennedy, FYI. Who cares?
Anthing could happen. I’m not saying I am supporting W, but Sen. Kerry has a job in front of him. The Dems are united, but W can spread the wealth. Homeland security is handing out big checks. This is not political. Right! But when Tom Ridge or his reps show up at your firehall or local police station with a big Publishers Clearinghouse sized check with lots of zeros on it, that has a way of getting people interested in what you are doing and your agenda. We just got some money locally for new fire equipment and the law needs a new cruiser and how about a Homeland Security grant for some new 9mm autopistols with lazer sights. W is going to be spending and the people in communities receiving federal grants will care. The Dems will take the money as fast as the government can print the checks. The police in our area could use new tactical gear, I’m sure. Tom Ridge said he is sure his buddy would win the election and Mr. Ridge knows how to move public funds around very well. Pittsburgh got two new stadiums and a new convention center because of Gov. Ridge. The man is effective, as PA’s guv he had all the Dems in our city marching in lock step behind his economic agenda.
Something funky will happen towards the end of October or maybe even the last weekend before the election.
Could be something like they “caught Bin Laden” or unconfirmed rumors that Bin Laden’s location has been pinpointed. All sorts of events or rumored events are available to bump the vote close to the election, maybe even a terror alert.
Endless possibilities + politics + close election = inevitable surprises
I like the idea that Senators can be hurt by running for office, while in office – by missing votes – but that a President can’t be hurt by running for office, while in office.
No votes to miss, but what other urgent matters is the “War President” putting on the back-burner, during his campaigning?
And remember, there is no Politics involved in Homeland Security – so don’t impune Mr. Ridge (a political appointee?) by suggesting that distribution of any HS funds is politically motivated – else you may attract the attention of Mr. Ashcroft!
Rats, that “War President” jab gives me away, doesn’t it? 🙂
The war on terrorism will continue, regardless of a Bush or Kerry victory next November. So we get a war president either way. Kerry keeps talking about this need for an international coalition and that stuff isn’t a big seller here. The UN was in Iraq and pulled out, so I’m not sure of how this international coalition should work. The UN seems about as international as you can get and it appears prone to corruption. ABC has a story, which says that a, “pay-off scheme in which some 270 prominent foreign officials received the right to trade in Iraqi oil at cut-rate prices.”
See Monumental Rip-Off?
Allegations of Widespread Corruption Involve Saddam Hussein, U.N. Senior Officials
April 20 — At least three senior United Nations officials are suspected of taking multimillion-dollar bribes from the Saddam Hussein regime, U.S. and European intelligence sources tell ABCNEWS.
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/WNT/Investigation/oil_for_food_ripoff_040420-1.html
“We are going to investigate these allegations very seriously,” Annan said during a press conference. I’m sure these international folks will get to the botom of things real soon. It’s like another Enron investigation. Maybe Kerry could expose some of the fraud involved when international big shots cut strange oil deals. That would involve political risks, so it’s better to talk about international coalitions and what we should do together as a world of nations. Oil prices are heading for record highs, according to CBS News tonight. $49.40 for a barrel of crude today. Gasoline should be getting more expensive, which can’t help Bush gain votes. It won’t help me keep a few more bucks in my pocket. The country is busy talking about Vietnam. I wonder how those 270 Iraq oil traders are doing. We shouldn’t think about that, we should be debating Vietnam like the war is still going on in Vietnam or something.
John Edwards did not help the Democratic ticket. Kerry should of found a governor to run with him, who wasn’t a lawyer. That was the combination that worked for Clinton-Gore, only the other way around. The Dems are all lawyered up with no place to go!
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