I asked the chief strategist at the McLuhan program at the University of Toronto about the Death of Newspapers column that seems to be getting a lot of attention and got this elaborate reponse, well worth reading for you students of media.

Dear John C. Dvorak,

I think you’re spot on, on (at least one important aspect of) this issue. Here are a couple of supporting comments:

Using the McLuhan “reversal” law of media, we know that any medium, pushed beyond the limit of its potential, will reverse what were its original characteristics. Advertising used to support the news in a newspaper. Pushed beyond the limit, the model now flips to the news supporting the advertising. This “retrieves” (another media law) the weekly shopper, as you correctly point out. [Another fun probe is to recall that newspaper was once used to wrap fish, which is only good when it’s fresh. The news – what is “wrapped” in the newspaper – is only good when it’s fresh, too. Today, with ubiquitous instantaneous communication, fresh news is available in the zeitgeist – implemented through a variety of technologies and media.]

Another probe: Advertising exists primarily in the presence of relative affluence and abundance. Where there are shortages of commodities, there is no need to advertise, because people will acquire and consume whatever they can get their hands on, irrespective of advertising – hence its redundance in conditions of scarcity. Western society in general, and North America, specifically, is experiencing tremendous abundance and plenty, especially relative to the rest of the world. Thus the growth (infestation is probably a better metaphor) of advertising is merely indicative of relative economic plenty. All mechanisms that convey advertising therefore overflows with that plenty: Newspapers that are mostly advertising, TV shows that are primarily product placement vehicles, movie titles that are more about branding than the movie (eg. not “The Phantom of the Opera,” but “Andrew Lloyd Webber’s The Phantom of the Opera), and likewise sports arenas, major events, and so forth. The revisionist cynic in me asks whether at some future time, we will be remembering the tragic event in New York City as “CNN Brings You 9-11.” But I digress…

The fourth law of media is “obsolescence,” which means that the medium loses its ability to really influence behavior and societal/cultural dynamics. One sign of a medium in obsolescence is ubiquity – it’s everywhere, and always. (You can see where I’m going here, right?) That advertising is ubiquitous, for instance, taking up 75%+ of some dailies – also means that it is obsolescent. Many people – especially those who are, say, under 50 – filter out advertising, or alternatively, see advertising as entertainment or an art form. What this suggests is that a great deal of the money spent on advertising is wasted – a result that was recently reported by the Advertising Research Foundation. See this blog entry.

The obvious question is, so what to do with newspapers?

Having them do what they did before, as you suggest, is probably not the thing to do for the long term: That approach has never worked for any medium in history, so it’s unlikely that newspapers will set a precedent. Original, first-person reporting is being done, but in a new way that is consistent with the notion of consumers reversing to be producers – blogging is but one example. Here’s a clue: A common dynamic for an existing medium that is being pushed aside by a new medium is to take on an aesthetic, artistic or recreational aspect. So perhaps (this is an off-the-top-of-my-head guess) the new position for the established newspapers, with their editorial infrastructure and mentality, is to focus on the aesthetic quality and craft of the writing, give up the facade and myth of objectivity, and provide a more reflective and culturally engaging approach to events that occur in the world. Given the instantaneity of the news in the world today, they certainly have the time.

Regards,
Mark Federman
Chief Strategist
McLuhan Program in Culture and Technology
University of Toronto

Federman’s McLuhan Program blog, What’s the Message?