Not to steal blogger Marc Perkel’s comment stream, but at least let’s base this debate on something measurable rather than speeches by Bush, Obama and the bloviation you hear on MSNBC, CNN and FOX. Look at these numbers!! And of course the real growth market is in the Department of Homeland Security and drone manufacturing.
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Avast, there be numbers here matey!
Excellent charts and analysis—-thanks.
I skimmed but it looks to leave out the notion that while the absolute number of jobs has about recoverd, the American Market needs X number (what about a million or more a year?) of jobs per year to match the population growth–thats why the unemployment numbers are so high.
That, and this IS NOT A NORMAL BUSINESS CYCLE RECOVERY. No–its a reset. Its a new normal. Manufacturing jobs are gone===not to return until market advantages favor America again. Blame the internet, computers, and cheap oil.
………google…….1,050,000 jobs a year needed to keep up with pop growth.
Our fearless leader is opposed to cheap fossil fuels. He prefers clean energy that way we can all prosper on those green jobs just like Spain.
well do-ill, I guess that is responsive in some way. But not being a member of your choir, the exact connection escapes me.
I will respond in like manner and for only the third time mention:
IF WE HAD A MAGIC SPIGOT that provided all the oil we wanted for free==the immediate question would be how much can we use before we poison ourselves from the toxic products of combustion.
That question is not obscured/obviated just because in real life there is a profit motive.
The move to green energy is about the most important quest we are facing. Doesn’t surprise me at all that too few recognize it and that too many are off charging in the exactly wrong direction.
Silly Hoomans.
I’m not sure where your going with this but consider the following. All the easy to get and cheap oil is gone, we sucked that out of the ground and burned it up a long time ago. The only oil left is the hard to get, out of the way, deep in the oceans and expensive to recover oil. The only reason the price of oil takes these temporary little dips in price is to keep you hooked. It’s like a drug dealer giving you some cheap drugs to keep you hooked.
The reality is the financial world and big business know the future is in clean energy. For them clean energy, solar energy is the best because they can charge you whatever they want without having to purchase a raw material. They don’t have to purchase the sun like they have to purchase crude oil so the profits are going to be even bigger in the end. Big business is investing ever-increasing billions of dollars in this market. Last year averaging $30 billion a quarter. Slowly and quietly they are increasing (by 25% per year) their holdings in solar. BTW China is the largest manufacturer of Wind turbines in the world.
This is just another bait and switch deal. They keep us all focused on oil will they buy up all the solar.
http://www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/G-20Report-LOWRes-FINAL.pdf
Right that’s why the price of natural gas has fallen through the floor with almost all the fracking being done on private land.
We don’t actually have a shortage of fossil fuels at the present time. We aren’t allowed to use it but it’s there.
The amount of natural gas tied up in various locations is super staggering and we have absolutely no shortage of coal but the EPA is determined to prevent the use of coal in the US for any reason.
The oil companies claim we could become oil exporters again but the EPA and Obama won’t let them drill over much of what the US controls. If it isn’t there I don’t see any reason they’d want to drill for it.
Despite the increase in population, we have fewer people working now than before. The lower unemployment rate is because people stopped looking and took the unemployment benefits Obama was offering, as well as the food stamp increase and signed up for disability benefits from SSI.
that’s what Honey Boo Boo said
It’s obvious both historically and presently how fiscal policies of “Fiscal austerians” have worsened the U.S. enconomic crisis. In the last go around the economy tanked in 1937 because government spending declined, as OMB numbers show. What the “Fiscal austerians” want is Americans to be forced to work at Farm wages, and conditions!
It’s telling how Republicans have caused both the Great Depression and Great Recession and their answer(s) to both has been the same!
Screw the common class, socialize loss and privatize gains.
Nothing in history supports the Republicans, not even myths of Ronald Reagan! It’s Wall Street and Republicans who want to kill off American Manufacturing!
“Fiscal austerians”===excellent term.
It would be relevant/dispositive to show charts of how the countries following FA have done recently and in the past: uniformily a stagnant and slow recovery versus those countries that followed Keynesian theory: quicker recoveries.
Charts are good. They help you think.
Before things went south when their credit ran out 40% of all Greeks were working for the government. You are assuming this business modal will work better for us than it did for them I presume? You are aware that you can currently rent the Parthenon out for two thousand and hour for weddings and such which is about the same as renting out the Lincoln memorial and that aspirin is often unavailable as well as medication for malaria in what was once a modestly prosperous country? Spain has the same problem and less debt than we do.
We think with words (supplemented by charts, analysis, trends, numbers and history) and flower with ideas (what we conclude, advise, what religions we join, who we vote for).
Really: one of the best questions asked in a long time AND with charts that are actually relevant. “Is this real life?” Ha, ha.
Its even a better than the obvious question of when did that auto plant close that Ryan lied about: the words were all true but the idea was a lie. >>>>>>>absolutely sublime.
Two keys words/ideas are included in this simple question and your answer–both have been discussed but not focused on in the popular media, so I give them Kudos:
1: Who is the “you” in the question? Each individual answering the question or you as in the People of America?
2: What does “Better Off” mean? In conjunction with Q#1–is this simply whether or not you have a job, worse job or again with variation is it whether or not the People of America are facing a financial abyss and another World Wide Depression?
So–one question asked with at least 4 very different reasonable interpretation to react to. The question actually demands that all 4 variations get answered then weighed and contrasted to one another?
AFTER, or if you enjoy being relevant, you can skip to the question that is actually the one that SHOULD be the basis of your vote this year: who most likely, on the evidence we have, will make you (same two questions there) better off (same two questions there) 4 years from now?
You see–the past is over, or the past is prologue: whats important in life, religion, politcs is THE FUTURE. Not the past.
Only idiots vote on the past. Only liars, shills, and tools focus on the past. All you have to do is look: the Pukes are focused on the Past while Obama is a mixed bag. All bad vs half bad.
Oh Lordy: its an even race. Just like the American People: half all bad, half half bad.
Yea, verily.
I’m focused on:
* what happens when our credit runs out. Our actual numbers are actually worse than Spain’s when the the debt spiral hit them (Increasingly higher credit costs due to perceived risk of not getting paid back.)
*The consequences of his anti fossil fuel policies.
*The stagflation caused by his anti-business policies. I don’t think it was a gaff when Obama said the private sector is doing fine, it’s the public sector that needs to grow. I think that is what the man believes and is reflected in the budgets that nobody in Congress has voted for in the past two years.
You aren’t focused at all until you provide a reasonable long term alternative.
This is a problem with zealots. They think they have done something useful to point out what is obvious to everyone.
The world has a lot of problems, and a lot of zealots. Fewer solutions.
Do you think 9 billion people can burn all the oil they want to?
Obama said this is the moment when the oceans stop their rise and the planet begins to heal, and in fact sea level is down and carbon emissions are down in the US at least. Overall global emissions are up as China is the big player now.
Hopefully Obama goes out like Carter.
Ohhhhhh McGuyver—no point by point refutation? Ha, ha. No. No point by point refutation. Spent all your lies on Global Warming huh?
Ha, ha.
Hopefully Obama stays in like Clinton! Neener neener
JCD–you did hijack Marc’s post. You did so though with an excellent question/set of charts. RHIP.
Regarding Obama’s performance and for how long can he blame Bush===that line of propaganda to be fair needs to start with Uncle Dave’s point from Marc’s thread: just how long would it have taken ANYONE to fix what Bush (and Clinton) handed over to the New Pres? At the time, I said 10 years and as above cautioned this was not a business cycle recovery.
Here is an oversimplified example of this question: if you spend 10 years walking a straight line into the forest, how long should it take you to walk a straight line back out?
Its only an analogy, and by definition, all analogies fail at some point of similarity===otherwise they wouldn’t be analogies.
Ha, ha. Yeah–the pukes are out to line their own pockets by taking bribes from the SUPER RICH to make the SUPER RICH even RICHER all out the the hide of the middle working class.
Why can’t you clowns see this? Its right there………. just look.
JUST LOOK!!!!!
A law was repealed under Clinton that many believe caused the banking crises but after getting his knuckles rapped by the repubs in Congress Clinton moved to the middle and handed off a surplus so exactly what did you mean by you comment? An honest collections of what Bill and H. Clinton think of B. Obama would blister paint.
Treas Sec Tim Geithner said in 2010 that the recovery had begun and America was back. Since then, George Bush managed to wreck the economy again, and the last two years and the next four are all his fault.
Geithner is Iago to Obama’s Othello.
Obama did chose a BAD economic team: it was Bush’s.
I will always “wonder” what woulda happened if all the Banks were allowed to fail and “market liquidity” was provided directly by the Feds operating themselves and/or thru the surviving small banks and credit unions.
Never heard it discussed and too big to fail is worse now than before with the unregulated activities continuing as before.
……………………..tick…………………….tock.
Old and wise JCD is. Talks weekly to Bizerkowitz and has done for years. Cares enough to hijack a thread an post charts.
I’d think/hope/admire a forum chief/moderator who on rare occasion at least took an active hand in contributing his expertise/accumulated wisdom.
Posting the charts and asking the question as you do only raises the inference you are a Puke. Why not directly challenge libtards like myself and tell us what we need to know? You might change some minds, crack a few shells?
Pros and Cons to all we do.
Win, lose, or draw, a battle in the market place of ideas will only make you stronger.
silence is for weaklings.
Not his style. He starts conversations; he doesn’t participate in them. And if it’s interesting to him, he’ll stoke the fire with a one-liner. But never more than one. After that, it’s no longer interesting; he doesn’t like to involve himself more than once.
Agreed….before I posted.
deowll testing his mettle says:
9/4/2012 at 11:35 am
A law was repealed under Clinton that many believe caused the banking crises /// who in the world doesn’t believe that?
but after getting his knuckles rapped by the repubs in Congress Clinton moved to the middle and handed off a surplus /// yes, it was a confluence of events
so exactly what did you mean by you comment? /// exactly what I said.
An honest collections of what Bill and H. Clinton think of B. Obama would blister paint. /// Even if true, so what?
Well, its a start deowll. I congratulate you for taking the first few steps===getting your private thoughts out from under your rock. It can only make you stronger.
Does this compute?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/04/massachusetts-judge-approves-taxpayer-funded-sex-change-for-inmate/?cmpid=cmty_twitter_fn
No it doesn’t compute. Mass can do what it wants to. What does that have to do with National Politics?
After how many years how have you failed to computer to delete the www. after you copy and paste a link?
Says way too much about you. But I’m being snarky…… still a slow start.
As posted by a buffoon who pontificates non stop but never links.
This is exciting, isn’t it? To imagine that economic policy is set in DC and that you somehow have a say in matters depending on the different scumbags you and your clueless neighbors vote for.
Pull your collective heads out. That’s not how it works.
How it does work is:
1) Make sure most Americans are perfectly ignorant economically so they can’t how or by whom they are being screwed …
Once you do pull your head out of your ass….all you have to do is look:
dumbo’s are bad, pukes are worse.
Vote all the Pukes OUT because they are directly trying to kill you. Then, vote the dumbo’s out as they are ineffective and wishy washy in their fumbling attempts to maintain power.
As the question intimates: if you vote your own self interest, the politics and economy CAN recover. Defining your own self interest is the discussion of this very thread.
To the idiot low information values voters: recognize that the Pukes may advocate what you wish while the Dumbo’s are going to roast in hell for sure… BUT neither political party has diddly direct squat to offer on these issues: its all the supreme court. Bush appointed Roberts who gave us Obama Care.
See how it works? JUST LOOK!!!!!!! Vote your own self interest… but understand what it is.
mmmmm kay?
Okay, the Dumbocraps suck and the Repubes are just as bad…
You’re making my argument for me…
No—very plainly I say what is obvious: the Pukes are WORSE. not the same.
Going for selected government is silly/cartoonish. Join us here on Earth for real world solutions will ya?
Too easy to get lazy and go with ideas that may sound good in some way…BUT DON’T WORK.
Engage your intellect, not your echo chamber.
I know who is screwing me.
When you are being raped you are expected to find a way to enjoy it.
Then you have to kiss ass to stay in the good graces of your masters.
Been that way for 100,000 years.
Who is screwing you Orchi?
I know I’m probably wasting this clue on you experts but Ben Bernanke was put in under W and rules today “under” Obama debt Laden.
Been kind of down hill the whole ride.
But we shouldn’t be too harsh on the Bernanke he has had to think about saving the Euro-zone at your expense – or should I say at the expense of your grandparents, children and grandchildren.
Bernanke does not act alone. There are other banksters feeding his head.
I am confident the economy won’t crash catastrophically.
The 1% depend on the money that flows up as much as we depend on trickle-down economics.
The whole “keep Bernanke in office” meme was baffling to me. Leave him in there because he failed to public once, and therefore he’s the best person to correct the failure…?
I’m not a GOP or Dem; they are two sides of a double-faced coin. Their only difference is approach. And no, I don’t/won’t vote. There is no honest candidate. When there is at least one, then I’ll gamble with everyone else. Till then…
Join the club.
Praying won’t help you and crying won’t do you no good.
The whole “keep Bernanke in office” meme was baffling to me. Leave him in there because he failed the public once, and therefore he’s the best person to correct the failure…?
I’m not a GOP or Dem; they are two sides of a double-faced coin. Their only difference is approach. And no, I don’t/won’t vote. There is no honest candidate. When there is at least one, then I’ll gamble with everyone else. Till then…
Bernake is irrelevant, just a bureaucrat/tool. Whats important is what he is told to do. THAT is where the screw up is brought to you by Congress and the Pres.
You take pride in not voting heh? Not voting===just like a slave. Unlike a slave, you like it.
Weird.
Sorry for the double-post… no way to edit here.
The question doesn’t fit the illustration but whatever…
The graph is clear. Under Obama’s 4 years, we are doing far better than under Baby Bush’s last 4. The slope of the curve is indisputable
You’ll find the chart you want in the link shown in the first post above.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/03/in-looking-back-four-years-voters-have-short-memories/#more-34025
4 years ago, Honda unveiled a hot cheap hybrid car to rival Toyota, Samsung announced BluRay dead in 5 years, and HP produced a bag that doubles as a shipping box for its laptops. All these were posted on this site.
Is there a pony in there somewhere? I don’t get it.
Unemployment above 20% is more likely.
I consider somebody that works at a fast-food restaurant for minimum wage when they once had a paying job as still unemployed.
I know a couple of people with computer science degrees that lost jobs that paid $70,000+ and now they do tech support from their home for $9.00 per hour. Those people are unemployed, or the new meme is “underemployed.”
Then there are the others that had their workweek chopped in half or their base salaries reduced by 30% in order to keep their jobs.
So how exactly is anyone going to do any better in this environment of scorched earth politics?
Better, ‘schmetter’… I’m happy now to have just survived and be vertical.
Congress voted on everything that has transpired. They better figure out how to fix it or we’re hozed.
Am I wrong in this?
They can’t hose the middle class without hosing the 1%.
The 1% will have nobody to exploit if the economy tanks completely.
One hand feeds the other. I hope they work it out soon.
If the economy tanks, the 1% will be fine. They will always be able to hide their wealth, and choose their place of residence if people try to take it from them.
They have outflows as well as inflows.
They are no different from us, just larger scale.
If the inflows stop, their net worth tanks.
Wealth is relative as well as absolute. The SUPER RICH will wallow in their porcine excess and be happy as long as they have more than you and me.
Its the way of the world. Something to guard (ie – regulate) against.
Pigs is Pigs.
The new `mericajn poor will continue to support the 1%. Law and “for profit debtors’ prisons” ensure it.
Such a refreshing debate on an interesting topic. You’re slipping!
I fell and bumped my head this morning.
Orchi and Skeptical==you two are being too passive. Congress and the 1% are more than happy to rule over a shrinking cess pool than loss “power” or “money.” With the current meme of viewing both dumbo and puke as essentially the same, the voters have allowed the status quo of no performance and blame the other party to calcify.
Nothing will change until those voting exclusively to benefit the SUPER RICH are turned out of office. THEN we go after the dumbos.
I know its stinks—but its up to us. NOW.
RICH = CRIMINAL.
vote your own “actual” self interest.
****************************
vote your own “actual” self interest.
****************************
You sheepled up. So go ahead and vote R or D. This is what sheeple do. And that is why we have what we have. They didn’t hire themselves.
Spare me your pathetic “real world” or whatever lecture. You are fucking busted.
4 years ago, sites like this one were only a few years removed from mocking the government for being worried about Iranian nukes, because of a few year old intelligence reports that said Iran was ten years away from a nuclear weapon.
Let Israel take care of the nukes in Iran. They’ve got our money and our weapons.
4 years ago, Bin Laden was doing podcasts. Now he’s in the Indian Ocean wrapped in bacon.
Well done. I couldn’t come up with a good non-sequitor. Is your new avatar a shopped you, Harrison Ford, or someone else?
Well, thank YOU for using ‘non-sequitor’ in a sentence. I admit I had to google it !
It’s an old avatar and it’s George W 🙂
I just googled it too. I meant to say something completely different! 🙂
“Are You Better off Than You Were Four Years Ago?” /// Strikes me the question assume the meme of a constantly increasing standard of living. Difficult to do when starting wars and increasing benefits on a credit card while off shoring jobs. Difficult to do when computers and AI eliminates whole categories of jobs. Difficult to do when the world flattens out.
Welcome to changing times.
the new meme may be UNAVOIDABLY >>> a downward slope. sucks I know, but things that go up, usually come down. The UNIVERSE works that way. The housing market was not exception, and neither is the entire economy.
so… if the reality is a declining standard of living the question might be reframed: “Are you doing not as poorly as you had every right to expect?”
Ha, ha. I hate change too.
A downward slope for us is a downward slope for the 1%.
They don’t like it either.
They won’t end up in the street or under a bridge, but they certainly don’t enjoy a change in status any more than we do.
Let the rich criminals duke it out, duck and cover, and when the dust settles be ready with a strategy for survival.
Again Orchi==you are being too passive. Yes, it is wise to let enemies fight among themselves, but not when they do so in your field of grain. Better to kill them both. This can be done by VOTING THE PUKES OUT OF OFFICE–because they are not duking it out with the SUPER RICH but merely trying to pick from their pockets the tithing they feel is due.
RICH = CRIMINAL
with their puke running dogs.
We are not on the same page.
I am talking about allowing the billionaire rulers to duke it out and figure out who will be the next President. The sheeple will follow the lead.
The Dimwits and the Repukes are opposite sides of the same coin. They will follow the money.
The rest of us get to adapt to the new situation.
That is slightly different than what I thought and posted to but it doesn’t change out situation and indicated need for action.
FOR THE LIFE OF ME—I don’t understand the “both the same”/two sides of the same coin mantra that obfuscates WHAT IS PLAIN TO SEE >>> the PUKES are worse than the Dumbos.
Vote the Pukes out of Office because they are WORSE than the dumbos. THEN vote the dumbos out of office because they are too similar to the Pukes===BUT NOT THE SAME.
They money has spoken: more SUPER RICH support Pukes than support Dumbos. AGAIN–more evidence the Pukes are worse.
STOP THE STUPIDITY.
Vote all Pukes out of Office.
I had insurance and a well paying job before Obama was President. Under his rule, I no longer have health insurance. I never did find a real job after I got laid off. I worked in a factory for over a year as a temp, but never in my field where I was making twice as much, so I am not better off than I was four years ago.
It is a given that 1 out of 5 people you see walking down the street are worse off than 4 years ago.
Are you convinced Willard Romoney will create jobs, jobs, jobs with his magic wand, or would he be another shot in the dark?
8 years ago, Obama said there is not a white America and a black America, and a Latino America, and an Asian America, there is the United States of America. 4 years ago he echoed the same themes while playing for race-based votes, including talking differently to black audiences, with a full mimicry of MLK in his convention address. Now he is explicitly playing races against each other.
4 years ago, Obama said he would change the game and put the people in charge. Now the Democratic National Convention opens with a video declaring we all belong to the government.
I think I’m a little better off than 4 years ago.
The bad economy forced me to be willing to do “underemployment” kind of jobs, which meant discarding my ego and vanity.
And I had to learn to budget my expenses better, get rid of expenses I didn’t need. Additionally, I’ve put tons of pressure on myself to learn new skills and try harder.
And to actively educate myself on issues of politics rather than largely ignore politics.
In many ways, times of “prosperity” are not better for your character and personal growth.
A couple of times, I had 3 jobs. It was brutal, but I enjoyed my time off more and got satisfaction of making through the week and found pride in being able to pay my bills.
Sure it was tough, but I felt very alive.
That is good. You did not rely on the government to make your situation better. You deserve recognition.
You learned how to cut everything that is not an absolute necessity. You pushed yourself to learn new skills and adapt to a new situation.
That is what humans do. You will survive.
Thanks!
Yeah, I had to overcome my weaknesses and my fears. I so much didn’t want to.
I look back at how I was before, and that guy I was doesn’t hold a candle to me.
You can imagine while I was working 3 jobs, how I felt when someone said “There are no jobs!” I refrained from saying, “I have of 3 jobs”.
HMyers – for making the best of his circumstances = +1.
Still leaves the question of WHY there are worse circumstances for all involved unexamined.
Let’s not conflate separate issues that happen to have a few common words in their truncated recitation.
Not being a Calvinist, I find no reward or heroism in overcoming adversity. What you did in adversity, you were actually more capable of doing in times of plenty.
The universe doesn’t care – – – only YOU care===when, where, how, etc.
Same as it always was.
Because the real-estate and refinance bubble was letting everyone charge “it to their mortgage” because “home values always go up”.
This wealth of excess credit created a booming (and superfluous) service oriented economy with few exports, which was revealed for what it was after the housing market collapse.
Plus we let Mastercard and Visa and Bank of America write the laws these days, since bank deregulation allows multinational behemoths and these companies get to fund our political system now.
And it is both parties, Obama did tons of sucking up to Chase Bank.
It is going to be a very pronounced and long economic malaise.
But that is quite the boring conversation, really. It is what it is.
Far better to have these problems than dying from malaria, typhoid and the problems of the 1800s or having a war.
All and all, our problems are rather mild by historical standards.
Exactly so HMyers. A little perspective, a little history, a little humility, a little less ego and what we realize is that life can always be better, but can always be a whole lot worse.
Few people ever in history have had the lives we have experienced…… I always think of being a coal miner or a galley slave in the Roman navy.
Perspective.
Now you need to tell your story to the Republicans.
Corporate welfare needs to come to an end.
Corporate personhood needs to be abolished once and for all.
The people will take over from here.
Tell your story to the Democrats.
You don’t need their welfare or their food stamps.
You don’t need their condescending attitude.
You can stand on your own. You can think for yourself.
Congratulations.
I agree with a lot of that, but I understand that politics is a difficult and grimy business with complications that those outside likely don’t fully understand.
I won’t claim to understand international trade dynamics or how to work within this broken system we have to “get things done”.
My mission, like others, as you clearly stated above is merely to survive and maybe come a day when I can think about more than that in this very unstable environment.
I think we have a broken system of government and I also do not think I have the “answers”. This country did not find itself in this situation overnight, it took decades.
And with automation and technology, I’m not entirely sure that the past economic model with near full employment can exist in this country in the future.
We will see …
It all needs to start with you, and others like you.
You need to be the spark that starts the fire.
Don’t be timid to say, “I have 3 jobs.”
Don’t be reluctant to share your pride in your accomplishments.
You have crossed over to the realm of possibilities and opportunities.
You have found within yourself something that was lost in your complacency and satisfaction with the status quo.
Shake things up. Demonstrate by example.
You are a goddamn American.
You don’t need political parties to do your thinking for you.
You don’t need corporations to tell you what you need or what you want.
With you and ten million like you, the tide can be turned. Maybe not next week. Maybe not next month.
But the tide must turn, and it all starts with you.
Your sentiments are valid and correct.
No, I felt better when there was at least a pretense of rule of law in Gitmo Nation.
The rule of law is the will of the people.
By people, I don’t mean corporate persons. Corporate persons are a farce and a sham. A figment of a judge’s imagination.
Human beings are persons.
I defy anyone to point out where the Constitution says that corporations are persons. The Fourteenth Amendment freed the slaves, not the corporations.
Corporate Personhood
Learn about it, discuss it, and abolish it.
A republican democracy is rule by the people. It is a bottom-up proposition. Corporations have no place in politics.
Absolutely. That huge unemployment surge happened before Obama signed his first bill…so kinda hard to blame him for that (unless Democrats have a secret time machine). Under Obama my 401k has doubled, and unemployment in Seattle is down and our economy is cooking. Yes, I am better off. Thanks!