Oh, so close…
John recently wrote a column in PC Magazine about the iPad 3, indicating that he isn’t sure what, other than a faster processor, could be in an iPad 4 and beyond. The next version of Mac OS X (called Mountain Lion) will drop Mac from the name and have features from iOS added to it. More iOS devices (iPads and iPhones) were sold last year than all Macs ever sold. All of this, someone suggested (argh! Can’t find the article right now), means that Apple will eventually drop the Mac altogether. Someone pointed out this is silly because despite all that, Macs comprise a smaller, but still significant percentage of revenue.
While desktop Macs should be around for a looong time (multiple monitors, anyone?), what about the Macbooks? There is still a need for many for a real keyboard which the iPad lacks without an external keyboard. And what about those needing multiple programs running at once on the screen in multiple windows? You need a notebook for that. Unless…
Take a future gen iPad with a quad-core processor. Then, as a separately purchased add-on for those who want it, Apple introduces a snap-on panel (the iPanel?) that has a keyboard plus USB and DisplayPort ports. Without the iPanel, the iPad works like a regular iPad. If the iPanel is attached, it works like a Macbook. Two current-day devices in one that makes the regular Macbook redundant. Sounds like a winner to me.
So Apple, when you come out with the iPanel, you know where to send the royalty checks! What? You’ve already patented this? Argh!
a snap in panel… you mean a dock..
yes now apple will claim they have invented it
the idock coming soon!
Hmm. Sounds good, Unc. Although, on second thought, it sounds a lot like you’re building a clumsy, less portable laptop…
They’re pretty much dropping the “Mac” from everything and replacing it with “i”. Personally, I think they should have just moved to another orchard. iPad is just dumb. Now named after a pippin apple, a PipPad – that’s got some pizazz. Of course, they’d have to avoid poor choices like Granny Smith. (Samsung ad: “It IS just your Granny’s tablet!) And they might run into some copyright trouble with the FujiPad while the Pink Lady (PinkPad) would certainly find a market though some conservatives would insist the “pink” moniker was obscene…
NBC’s Pink Lady and Jeff awesome TV!
So you think they mean to turn their flashy car into a bastardized truck?
They can name it iCamino.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1972_El_Camino_SS.jpg
Actually, Apple already patented a computer monitor latch device. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s part Uncle Dave’s prediction.
What I predict is that Apple will discontinue the Pro line of their desktops and laptops since the iVersions are much more profitable and people actually believe that the dual HDD mac mini is a good replacement for X-serve.
Right now, the pros who supported Apple through thick and thin are being displaced by Grandpa, Grandma, Duckface Facebook girls, Chavscum boys, college poser kids and wealthy gays.
Angel, let’s not forget that Microsoft has also demo’ed a multiscreen tablet computer. So far, they have not gone into production with it but it just goes to prove:
Apple invents nothing. Every thing they’ve ever done is based on prior art. They’re just damned good at redesigning gear and creating a market for it.
FWIW, I think both MS and Apple are screwy for thinking a touch screen laptop or desktop will do away with the keyboard. Almost everything is faster and/or more accurately done with a keyboard, a mouse or a stylus. I snicker every time I see one of those big touch screen displays on a TV cop show. Maybe Homeland security is paying for them…
From the cops and deputies I’ve talked to, the “Barney Miller” squad room is closer to the truth than, say “NCIS Los Angeles”.
This blog article reeks of many different kinds of ignorance all at the same time.
Apple has 25% of the notebook market by revenue and makes money hand over first on them. For starters.
And why link iPhones into a comparison with computers? WTF. iPad sure. iPhone … what does that have to do with desktop/notebook market?
And Apple barely sells any desktops. 75% of sales are the notebooks. WTF #2
I could go on.
This blog is terrific for people who really don’t know what they are talking about to share ideas with other people who also don’t know what they are talking about, I guess.
The only correct thing about this article is that iPad in many ways represents an alternate portable computer market and Apple seeks to cross-feature successful strategies amongst the 2 platforms it maintains. They may eventually be just one platform, sure.
But this is a company that sells notebook computers for a ton of markup and sells tons of them too. The idea they would stop doing that is like McDonalds stops selling french fries.
Again, they’re not going to stop selling desktops and notebooks altogether.
It’s their Pro line that’s going to vanish. See how virtually every product in their consumer lines are refreshed very often and see how the MacPro line is still dragging behind. And don’t pull that “It’s Intel’s fault for delaying the release of the Xeon Sandy Bridge line!” excuse. They might as well release a Mac Pro with the Sandy Bridge-E series and get done with it since Ivy Bridge will also use the same LGA2011 socket.
New mac pros within a month. Intel is finally releasing new Xeons at CeBIT on March 6.
Hmeyers2 says:”Apple has 25% of the notebook market by revenue”
That statement says tons. They certainly don’t have a fourth of the market share by number of units sold. Though that’s almost surprising since macfans replace their equipment on a much more elective schedule than Windows users. Which reminds me, my laptop is nearing seven years old. Thanks, Lenovo.
Apple has 25% of the notebook market by revenue and makes money hand over first on them.
Overpriced hardware built by Foxcon “slaves.” You would think Apple would have tons of cash.
tHERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT really NEED TO BE FIXED IN BOTH.
Computers are great, except the video card really hasnt changed ENOUGH.
It Needs to run the desktop..NOT windows.
It should DO the processing, not the CPU.
the GPU is fast enough, now it needs to Do something besides RENDER.
under windows drivers arnt dynamic enough. they STILL take to mcuh room and power. PUT the driver ON THE CARDS..
All windows did was create a Generic control interface(DirectX) but thats software to take processing away from the CPU.
GPUs are very good for certain kinds of computation. The CPU is designed to be a good all purpose processor for many different calculations. Different tools for different jobs.
The song was right. Stop making sense.
Technology is killing me. Just freaking get to it Apple, and make the damn iphone to work with a monitor and and a keyboard. All of which can fit in your pocket.
Computer technology to avoid incest needs to get around entering data via the key boar or a virtual one. Find a better way to enter data that doesn’t require a keyboard of any type. Thereby eliminating the keyboard completely. And a durable, yet flexible expanding monitor. That way you can carry a computer around absent of all the restriction currently being faced.
Apple will always need the Mac, iMac and MacBooks for its developers and content providers. When you’re coding below the End-User UI you need the CPU/GPU keyboard monitor combo.
That will always be a small but indispensable market.
But for the consumers environments, they don’t need or want to saddle them with those kinds of interfaces.
They will continue to develop iPods, iPhones and iPads but the form factors are set by biology more than technology. The stuffing of bigger and faster chips will of course continue but at some point soon, it doesn’t make sense to keep on adding processor cores or gigabytes of memory.
The challenge will come in the home environment.
Apple has looked at projectors that would take care of monitor size arguments and at better than 1080p resolution, that would be “good enough” to project movies. (Need a bigger screen? Back up.)
Apple is standardizing on its own A series of multi-core processors. (They’ve gone through Motorola, IBM, Intel and now they’re making their own. Their track record at operating on multiple platforms is a proven one.)
Apple is incorporating multi-touch, gestures and Siri to provide user controls of the H-MI.
Apple is using its own implementation of 802.11N to link all of the system components wirelessly.
Look for an Apple “home environment” to consist of microphones*, cameras**, monitors***, projectors, speakers, “Time Machine” backup drives, a “iControl” box, all linked to the Internet for external communications.
The future for Apple is going to be a long and profitable one.
*) For Siri, iChat and speech-to-text input.
**) For game and haptic controls and for alignement to correct for optical misalignment between projector to reflective surface.
***) an iPad would be used to implement “control surfaces.”
I think John C Dvorak has serious game. I read the columns. I love the opinions. Even better on the podcasts.
But I think you’ve got a blind spot on this one particular product.
Everybody is assuming you’ll even need a keyboard in the near future. NLP is the future.
I think designing a complicated spreadsheet would be near impossible without a keyboard and mouse. A couple of clicks and a few seconds time or “Copy formula Column D row 67 to column G row 84” And, of course, it’ll put the formula in column E row 94…
You are assuming a spreadsheet is the most efficient way to organize data.
I agree with you — a spreadsheet would be near impossible to utilize without a mouse and keyboard. It was developed with the keyboard in mind. The mouse just made it easier to use.
But . . . somewhere out there . . . is the killer app that will replace it when NLP becomes commonplace.
I hope you’re right. I also hope I live long enough to use it.
Me, too. I don’t want to die because I want to see all the cool stuff coming out!
I think NLP (with individual voice mapping for collaborative work) and hand gestering into a no-glasses 3-D display will be the winning combination for the future.
And someday, haptic and force feedback devices might show up. Imagine the virtual sculptor!
The pr0n industry will fund much of the development. They have deeper pockets than Apple.
Thanks, LibertyLover,
Saved me the trouble.
I think at some point, people will point to the introduction of Siri as the best proof that Jobs was way ahead of his time.
Hence, he KNEW that the iPad needed neither mouse nor keyboard. Genius!
But they’ll all need bluetooth headsets so each iPad will hear only “his master’s voice” over which phrase, they’ll sue RCA.
For all the tech in these phones, why isnt SOME of it used in computers.
SOME of these phones and pads are showing some GREAT features.. So why do we have computers that create enough heat to warm your house in the winter..
Im going to check out the Raspberry..see what can be done.
For those that understand BASIC computer. Why do you need $400-700 worth of machine to wonder the net? Collect Email? to DO the basics.
A good $100 computer to DO the basics would increase the internet use by 100 times. Having good hardware and OS would be the major part of this.
We have those: netbooks.
Tablets should really be that cheap given what they are, but they are too much the fad right now. They’ll get cheaper once the new wears off some.
Yes, as soon as they bring out the 17inch Ipad, and the 17inch idock, I will replace my MacBook.
I see the iPad evolving to just be better at what at does now. There is no need to reinvent the laptop clamshell formfactpr, Intel is already doing that with Ultrabook.
There is alot that can happen with tablets – flex screens, higher res, 3D, gesture recognition, Siri , 3D imagers, ….. and simply better apps that take advantage of this!
Something really cool would be an iNose (for better shopping and porn). Also, something of a personal assistant (Siri like) that keeps one from doing stupid things – like watching Fox
A Persim, in other words.
Dallas – I have waited patiently, listening to the promises of voice recognition, for years. Siri is a joke. Very little more than what Android has been doing for three or four years. I want a software robot. From a pleasant voice alarm in the morning to reminders of my schedule. Something I can ask a question without pushing a damn button first. If it could learn to make a decent latte, that would be nice, too. It seems true voice recognition is always. just around the corner. I can dictate my emails and SMS with Android but does it think to remind me that the person I’m writing to has a birthday next week? Basically, I want HAL. (“You seem tense today, Animby. Is there anything I can do to help? I could close the pod bay doors…”) When the Android voice recog popped into existence, I was really thrilled. But, now, just like Siri, I find it easier to just go ahead and type what I want.
But, true voice recognition is just around the corner…
Like Fusion power and flying cars…
Agree with you there. I will say speech recognition software is pretty darn good now but context and interpretive technology is still poor.
I totally agree that a computer at home to act on what I say would be great .
Smells like apple blossoms in here.
All depends on future track of Apple. If they stay in the ruts of Almighty Jobs following is inevitable:
1) Never, ever, ever a “dock” by Apple for iPad. Never. Particularly not one with anything but Apple proprietary connector and maybe display port.
2) Desktops disappearing on a “soon” scale. Not just Pro. All, including all-in-one (though one could suspect that those will live some alternate future as smart TVs – but aimed at being TV, not a desktop PC).
3) Laptop lines morphing into a single line of semi-pro devices aimed more at the sleek design than best computing abilities.
Finally, if they stay in that path I predict that between Dec. 1st 2012 and Dec 31st 2013 there will be a moment when Apple stock (and hence company performance) will hit 50% or less of the highest value they record in 2012 (say if the latter is 500$ -> at one point in above interval they will hit 250$ or below). Reason: Almighty Jobs path relies on two fundamental repetitive processes that can’t be sustained forever: 1) Pumping action of new products. Substantially new products, not upgrades. iPod->iPhone->iPad… They need a new field so there will be iTV this year. 2) Level at which consumers are willing to be abused for new shiny products via Apple specific Jobs restrictive manias (buttons, USB, Flash,… just to name obvious). At one point those two will not mash and instead of new product pumping there will be a new product drop, painful one. iTV seem perfect candidate.
As for “dream tablet” – it already exists in several forms on the Android side. Side that is not encumbered with manic grand visions. Side that will evolve to fill all niches of tablet computing by the very lack of principles and reliance on selection process by consumers.
Apple is enjoying a real home adoption wave for iOS devices.
If Apple can do same with business adoption then it will enjoy a wave approaching the titanic size of the previous PC wave of the last 20 years.
Modularity is part of the keys to this particular game. Apple’s iOS ecosystem modularity is very strong only on one thing: Apps.
Apple might cede this wave to Google. The excellent modular interface separating the app developers from the computer maker Apple — will it be enough?
Time will tell.
Actually Microsoft might still be in the game due to its exisiting and not quite yet extinct channel in the business world. Microsoft has a chance to become the business part of the tablet wave since Apple is ceding the initiative, but only if Microsoft can get in before Apple squeezes Microsoft out of the ecosystem permanently.
The business world always lags, which is normal as businesses do not feel the need to upgrade or discard the systems they have invested in without good reason.
Mainframes and AS/400 systems were common well into the desktop era of the late 1990s, for instance.
Businesses will eventually move to a pure-client server model using web services, where data is accessible on any device one is using.
Versus being reliant on some in-house VB6 app from 1998 or some IE6 in-house system.
There is little reason for Apple to step backwards in time to fix poorly what forward progression will fix correctly.
Dallas, unless “Linux” ever determines some way of funding they will never be able to even chase Microsoft.
Pedro, Microsoft has been reactive rather than proactive in every market except the XBox.
Microsoft even came out with a tablet 8 years ago and then abandoned it.
This is why Windows phones have gone nowhere, the Zune died, and few people “Just Bing It”.
Microsoft does not believe in earning wins these days. They believe in entitlement, like a Democrat voter. Which is why they lose.
Microsoft wants to become a legacy company and is trying very hard to get there.
I was with you until that political jizz. just keep it in your pants. ok?
I am communicating with Pedro, therefore I am trying to relate with him on his level and from his perspective.
So that complex thoughts become digestible to him.
Apple doesn’t like to make clunky things like that. If you want a great prediction, go read what I wrote when rumors first started flying about Apple making a phone… http://www.kossome.com/?q=node/8
Did that hurt your arm?
Anyway, you make the mistake of assuming that Apple products are easy to use for everyone, and hit the sweet spot between power and simplicity.
Not for everybody. Not by a long shot.
Really? Apple is too hard for you? Wow. My grandma can’t even use a mouse, but she can use an iPad. How easy does it need to be for you to use it?
I have doubts if Apple would do something old like this idea…. And I hate apple….
Agreed. I don’t think Apple will design “The Homer”.
Well, all the Macs ever sold were WAY OVER PRICED !!! So is the iPad, for what it is, an Apps Toy, but way CHEAPER THAN ANY MAC !!! So maybe after all these years, Apple has found a SWEET SPOT for COMPUTER JUNK !!! But, Android will soon come to DOMINATE THAT SEGMENT, just as PCs pushed the MAC TO NEAR OBLIVION !!! ***PRICE MATTERS*** !!!
On cheap pieces of crap the caps lock often gets stuck. And the symbols keys spew out random crap.
That’s right! Just like cars. I buy cheap American cars that fall apart after 2 years. It’s so much better than those slightly pricier foreign cars that last 10 years. Price does matter.
Oh puleeeease… price matters? It only matters if you can’t afford it. Have you ever investigated just how much cash money and assets Apple has? Apple will easily survive android. Google has competition too, but there won’t be a search engine unseating them from top spot any time soon.
I have 3- 6 computers running in our home at any given time. 3 are Macs… older machines and soon to be retired. Even with Windows 7, Windows is still lagging behind Mac for common sense features and ease of use for the average person. In 15(?) years of trying, they have never caught up… close, but still not there.
That said, I can no longer justify the purchase of a Mac as I’m retired and have a very expensive illness, so I am now using a PC. It’s like driving a BMW after driving a Lamborghini. Still a very good machine, but the thrill is gone.
Sometimes I think I’m the only person around who likes a 30 inch monitor. Real easy on the eyes.
Nope, and 42 is better.
Uncle Dave, if I were at apple I would be trying to make a projectable keyboard. No extra hardware needed except a flip-out support so that the iPad could be placed on a table. It would use similar technology to Kinect… ya, I know…
I think the Asus Transformer Prime has prior art.
The next logical step for apple
http://tinyurl.com/7lzltk8
Hmeyers2 says:”Businesses will eventually move to a pure-client server model using web services…”
You might have been right, Except now the United Nations wants to control the internet. Just what we need, a global bureaucracy, in thrall with China, running the internet, and adding fees to support developing nations’ telecommunications. Just think of an per-click charge for accessing “international” content. And it would be expensive since nothing the UN does is on a tight budget. And has the UN EVER run a program without screwing it up? And the godawful security problems the UN would undoubtedly introduce would scare businesses away in droves. Hell, the UN taking over the internet could be the major factor in saving the USPS!
See an excellent editorial in the WSJ by an FCC bigwig. http://on.wsj.com/AdPQD1
That is an interest thought. That didn’t occur to me.
Still any remote connection is going to have to use the internet and any local connection is still going to be private network.
And web services and such via HTML5 would work the same and if the UN controls the internet and does so stupidly everyone is up the creek in either scenario.
“John recently wrote a column in PC Magazine about the iPad 3, indicating that he isn’t sure what, other than a faster processor, could be in an iPad 4 and beyond.”
What a visionary genius! Next you know this geezer will have a blog!
The brand name “Mountain Lion” has been in use here in Flagstaff for several years already.
You’d think they would check out stuff like that….rather than try to play catch up after they discover they are trying to steal the brand name of another outfit…
Correction….
Oops – the brand name in Flagstaff is “Mountain Line” but the graphic logo is of a Mountain Lion.
Still – as I have illustrated – it is confusing…