BP may not know where oil from the Gulf gusher will go next, but Intel does. The Xeon-powered Encanto supercomputer, located at Intel’s Rio Rancho campus, is one of the fastest supercomputers in the world. And all of its 3,500 quad-core processors are devoted to tracking the potential paths of the BP disaster.
Encanto started working on the oil disaster just a few days after it began, but progress has been slow-going. The first six simulations alone sucked up over 250,000 hours of computer time using the Parallel Ocean program, a 3-D ocean circulation model design at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Intel researchers plugged in the latitude and longitude of the Gulf disaster to see where an electronic “dye tracer” dropped in the water might land. The results aren’t encouraging. Once the oil moves past Florida to the Gulf Stream, it could carry oil up to 3,000 miles each month–to the East Coast and beyond.
Maybe if it were to reach the UK, that would motivate them.
Obviously this is in “fake” time units because 250,000 hours is more than 28 years.
Probably this is 15 minutes of real time.
250,000 hours of computer time. Probably something like 3500 (processors) x 4 (cores) x actual hours.
Did they factor in jet stream steering?
Makes a big difference, just look at the unusual weather the world over since the Gulf oil leak started.
Tin foil hat may not be needed since it seems our Govt previously admitted altering the jet stream, hence hurricanes making minimal landfall since Katrina.. . .
Yes it sounds crazy, what do you think?
This computer model is worthless unless it’s validated by real observations, no matter how many cores they ran the simulation on.
What’s so special about the Gulf oil that it will disperse like a tracer dye ?
If the oil is in large gobs it will turn to tar – heavy tar sinks and goes nowhere; light tar floats and is driven by surface currents and wind. If the oil is emulsified it will be broken down by microbes.
This model sounds about as realistic as the hysterical ones they use for global warming. Good for funding and scaring people for political/financial gain.
I’ve been wondering if we wouldn’t be a lot better off with just the oil and not the dispersant. On No Agenda they said that something like 1500 people have needed treatment since the clean up started and I don’t think natural oil is that toxic.
If they left it alone we would end up with tar balls/asphalt. The same stuff they use to make roads with and they aren’t screaming about how dangerous our paved roads and highways are. They don’t threaten to arrest and fine you 40,000 for using them.
How can this be even remotely accurate when it dosen’t even seem like it’s hitting Louisiana, when we know it already has?
Models like this are statistically approximate. No, it won’t go exactly like this animation; it will just develop “much like” this animation with this eddy or that curlycue looking different. But if you are crossing the Atlantic after it hits the Gulf Stream, your boat is going to get dirty, no matter what pixel you think is real or not.
A computer simulation so nice, they played it twice.
Man that disclaimer screen sure flashes by really quickly.
The comment to this story was:
“Maybe if it were to reach the UK, that would motivate them.”
I disagree. It’s not a matter of “motivation” since clearly the billions BP will spend on the gulf spill doesn’t seem to affect them, but rather a matter of COMPETENCY!
I mean, “top hat” and “garbage clogging” are the best immediate solutions they could come up with? REALLY?! It sure makes me wonder what the other big boys are doing like Exxon, Shell and any of the other IDIOT companies who have been in similar situations. Is anyone looking?!
HELLOOOO! Mister “reporter”! Are you asleep at your typewriter again? Or don’t any of those other stories fit your “agenda”?!
Wake up and stop continuing the myth please.
Aint ‘British’ anymore matey, hasn’t been for years.
Start looking closer to home – MUCH closer in fact. Try looking at who will be using this oil in their cars as well. Isn’t us.
Also. Look at your own blogged map of the worst oil disasters, this one is WAY down the list. Also, whilst you are at it. read what the people in the declining living areas most affected were earning before the disaster, weren’t doing too good it seems.
I’m not excusing what is happening, it is bloody awful for those affected, but take out the Obama effect (i.e. don’t look at me cocking up look at others, it takes the heat off me) also look at the others who were profiting from the BP well and please, the co-owners and things certainly look a bit different.
I’ve got no time for BP at all, a right shower they are and have been for years. but please kick the right arse, makes us believe in you more. I forget to mention Bhopal by the way – that’s for later.
The worst thing about that map is that given a map of the currents just about anyone could have used a crayon to draw a mark showing about where to expect the oil to show up given a few months. Sometimes more computer power doesn’t help all that much.
They have only just discovered that Blue Tuna breeds in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean. Don’t know if those fishies are smart enough to avoid the oil in their orgasmic frolicking, or their fry as newborn dots.
In the main, I think the model only covered “surface spread.” Need a more complicated model for the middle and bottom layers?
And its good thinking to note that this model thrown together overnight for grins will be referenced as just as valid as the climate modeling that has been labored over for years.
Like pollution, some arguments are just oily.
#10. I believe it’s your ex Prime Minister that’s being positioned to take over the helm of BP. Does it hit a little closer to home now? And since this is a minor spill, how about getting you arse down here to help with the cleanup, mate.
“Maybe if it were to reach the UK, that would motivate them.”
But you Americans are just a bunch of whinners…
Look at all the wars/heavy indutries/polution/etc you guys DUMPED on all the developing countries and you people didnt come to do anything.
Get a grip.
This has been forecast since the spill began. Nice animation tho. Looks like a good time to invest in Pacific seafood…
So far reality hasn’t matched what is projected. All five American States have had some oil wash up.
As far as the oil breaking down, the warm Gulf waters are better. Well, maybe not if you live, work, fish, vacation, etc. there. Once the oil hits the cooler Atlantic waters, the oil will clump more and break down much more slowly.
PATH of Destruction
Look at the Ocean and the Beach
Or deeply within?
[Fail! 5-8-5 – ed.]