Let’s be serious for a moment: Barack Obama will not bomb Iran. This is not because he is a liberal, or because he is a peacenik, or because he doesn’t have the guts to try and “save his presidency” in this time-honored manner, as Daniel Pipes has urged and Sarah Palin said she would like him to do.

The president will not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations for precisely the same reasons that George W. Bush did not bomb Iran’s nuclear installations: Because we don’t know exactly where they all are, because we don’t know whether such a raid could stop the Iranian nuclear program for more than a few months, and because Iran’s threatened response — against Israelis and U.S. troops, via Iranian allies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and Lebanon — isn’t one we want to cope with at this moment. Nor do we want the higher oil prices that would instantly follow. No American president doing a sober calculation would start a war of choice now, while U.S. troops are actively engaged on two other fronts, and no American president could expect public support for more than a nanosecond.

But even if Obama does not bomb Iran, that doesn’t mean that no one else will. […] The defining moment of his presidency may well come at 2 a.m. some day when he picks up the phone and is told that the Israeli prime minister is on the line: Israel has just carried out a raid on Iranian nuclear sites. What then? […] Although they keep all options on the table, they have so far concluded that bombing raids aren’t worth the consequences.

At some point, that calculation could change. Because Americans often assume that everyone else perceives the world the way we do, it is worth repeating the obvious here: Many Israelis regard the Iranian nuclear program as a matter of life and death.

Should We Bomb Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?

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  1. Phydeau says:

    Osama bin Laden said right up front, he wanted to destroy America by luring it into endless unwinnable wars in the Middle East. Here we are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, and clueless wingnuts want us to start another war, while our military is stretched to the breaking point.

    A Republican wingnut is Osama’s best friend. Way to go, guys.

  2. Benjamin says:

    If we nuke their nuclear facilities, we can just say their nuclear bombs accidentally went off by themselves. That’s what happens when a country (Iran) tries to build nuclear bombs when they don’t know what they are doing.

  3. GF says:

    If the Israelis feel threatened enough they’ll attack, maybe with their own nukes. Iran is the tipping point for the next world war and if they continue to act reckless they will cause a crap load of misery for a whole lot of people.

  4. GigG says:

    What! No “let Israel do it’ option?

  5. Every_Single_Time says:

    Every time I see a poll like this a shockingly high number of people seem to favor bombing this country. We never seem to learn.

    * Iraq would be a pushover compared to Iran.
    * Iranian reformist movement will all but be obliterated with the first bomb.
    * Iran would retaliate. With extreme prejudice.
    * Iran would disrupt oil supplies sending prices to over 200/bl. The would almost certainly be a worldwide recession
    * Iran would terrorize Israel for years to come.
    * Iran would redouble its efforts to get the bomb. It will become ultra-cautious and it would succeed. I guarantee it.

    Look. Israel is governed by 70s commandos. They are men who believe in action of the lethal variety and when you’re a hammer everything looks like a nail.

    Israel is committing slow suicide and it is determined to take the USA with it. All because of your stupid God and your stupid racism.

    The absurdity of it all is that Israel has 220 warheads. Illegal warheads. Israel will not disarm, but it is very happy to whine to the UN about Iran.

    Wake the fuck up.

  6. Robart says:

    FTA: But even if Obama does not bomb Iran, that doesn’t mean that no one else will.

    If Israel bombs Iran it will be with the administrations blessing. Israel won’t do anything without our approval. Trust me.

  7. Dallas says:

    I’m torn. I can see a case for both sides but satisfied we don’t have the Cheney administration making the decision.

    The reason we are in this mess is Bush removed the only counterbalance to Iran with Iraq. While he took out Saddam for calling daddy Bush a pussy, we are now in this mess.

    Ideally, the UN should do the deed although they are not set up that way.

  8. harold says:

    Israel is the only country that wants to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability and they probably want the US to do it for them. Unfortunately most of our representatives are AIPAC whores and Hillary is one of the biggest. I wouldn’t be surprised to wake up one morning and hear that we have attacked Iran and essentially started WWIII at the Behest of Tel Aviv.

  9. Phydeau says:

    #5 Well said, but good luck getting the wingnuts to comprehend it.

    Just goes to show, if you talk about crazy things long enough, they start to sound not so crazy to some people.

  10. Ah_Yea says:

    Ha! Ha! Ha! Dallas makes another funny!

    So the Iranians weren’t going nuclear when Saddam was in power? HA HA!

    The reason, and the only reason, Iran is still on the nuclear bandwagon is because Russia and China want Iranian oil.

    What Obama should do is place the blame squarely where it belongs, on Russia and China.

    He needs to explain to everyone, in detail, what the Russians and Chinese have done to circumvent or water down UN resolutions which would have pressured Iran into reasonable consessions.

    Never will happen. Talk about a pussy.

  11. Phydeau says:

    #10 Maybe you haven’t noticed… China is buying our T-bills, lending us money to keep our economy afloat.

    We won’t be pissing them off any time soon. We’ll be saying yes sir, no sir, whatever you want sir.

    Doesn’t matter how many aircraft carriers and jets and missiles we have. The world order is changing.

  12. Phydeau says:

    Dang that was referring to #10, not #9

  13. Let’s forget the moral implications for a moment. Purely based on history, a US attack or invasion of Iran is likely to have negative consequences for the US.

  14. Phydeau says:

    And let’s not forget that attacking countries that are not an immediate threat is the hallmark of rogue states. Cheney took us there with Iraq. Let’s hope Obama has the sense that Cheney didn’t.

  15. Dallas says:

    #9 You buffoon. First, Russia ranks 83rd on oil imports and falling because they are one of the largest producers.

    It is already in history books that the “Bush pussy revenge” is why Iran is out of control in the region. For decades they had Iraq as a counterbalance.

  16. Dallas says:

    Oops..direct at #10

  17. Bastian says:

    Who will finance this war? Let me guess… the oil from Iran will.

  18. Ah_Yea says:

    Yes Dallas, there is a buffoon here, Dallas.

    http://tinyurl.com/mtslf4

    So why don’t you Obamapologist acknowledge that Obama is an international pussy? That he will NEVER call out Russia and China for their roles in this fiasco?

    Hint, it not Phydeau naive T-bill argument. That’s just plain stupid. Hey Phydeau, what would happen to China if China stopped buying US T-bills?

  19. Phydeau says:

    #18 China will be hurting a lot less than the U.S. will be hurting. Wake up and smell the coffee, pal. The American empire is coming to an end.

  20. dusanmal says:

    @#14 “And let’s not forget that attacking countries that are not an immediate threat” – Let’s see what is Iran typical offensive strategy: finance and arm proxy groups close to their enemies and activate them at will.
    If Iran gets the nuclear weapon, who is likely target? Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait…? No. Israel and USA. Expected strategy: give Hezbollah self-mutilating nuts couple for Israel and send few in container ships to USA, than jump of joy when resulting nuclear attacks send their main enemy – Western Democracy in tail-spin.

  21. cfk says:

    Amused to see that an ad for a “Muslim Matrimonial” site appears on the same page as the survey results. Planned or part of the Anti-Great Satan conspiracy? 😉

  22. Phydeau says:

    #20 Take a deep breath, change your Depends, and get a grip. We had the huge and powerful Soviet Union pointing thousands of nuclear warheads at us for decades and we managed to survive.

    North Korea has nuclear weapons, and they haven’t used them against us.

    Just calm down, crawl out from under your desk, and let the adults do that diplomacy thing that has worked so well in the past, OK?

  23. bac says:

    It is assumed that once Iran obtains nuclear weapons they would immediately use them on Israel and the USA. So far, no country that has obtained nuclear weapondry has used them on another country except the USA.

    With all this talk about how bad it would be for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, this proves that Iran will have great bargaining power once they do announce they have nuclear weapons.

    Would Iran be ignorant enough to blow all that bargaining power away by immediately attacking countries?

  24. Who Bothers with Reseach anymore? says:

    It’s amazing that nobody has brought up the fact that Iran has no plans to build nuclear bombs. They would like to come into the same century as the rest of us and have nuclear power. The bomb story line was created by Israel and the US. They have even said they would welcome UN observers to inspect their operations to ensure they are only using them for power supply. The US, (as a puppet of Israel) ignores Iran’s invites to inspect their operations by saying “we will not carry on any dialogue with terrorist nations”. Iran is like the little kid in the school yard who the bully has decided he wants to beat up: no matter what the kid does or says, the bully has set his mind on beating him up…. and all the stupid people keep believing what they see on CNN…..poor lost souls.

  25. Phydeau says:

    #23 Good point, bac. And as many have pointed out: The only member of the “Axis of Evil” (sheesh) that Cheney didn’t see fit to pick on was North Korea… the one with nuclear weapons. And we wonder why these countries are trying so hard to get nukes?

  26. stan0614 says:

    Need another option – Can’t we just use the earthquake machine mentioned in NoAgenda on Iran?

  27. jccalhoun says:

    The concern over nuclear weapons is misplaced. If they get nuclear bombs then what? Who are they likely to bomb? Israel? Guess what, they probably already have enough conventional missiles to flatten the country. The only difference would be radiation. Which way do the prevailing winds go in the middle east? Is Iran upwind from Israel or downwind?

  28. B.Dog says:

    Mr Research#24, you have a real good point. The logical next step is to take a look at what they are doing and find out if Iran is set up for making weapons grade or reactor grade material, and take it from there. If it is reactor grade, we can taunt them for using that questionable technology when they sure don’t have to. If it’s weapons grade, well that’s the last straw — we blockade the Persian Gulf until the assorted fools in the region start seeing things our way.

  29. bac says:

    #28 — The USA is good at Intelligence Fail. Did you ever here about the convincing evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction?

    #27 — The prevailing winds could carry the radiation over Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. May be even as far as India and China.

  30. MikeN says:

    That’s a total waste of time, as this has already happened as well as a general war and invasion. I learned this from Seymour Hersh and the editors of dvorak.org who told us this was going to happen years ago.


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