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Not sure why I comment when I have nothing to contribute
Still waiting for Horror-witz “for certain” prediction of a crash by Fall of 2009.
In the mean time, I’ve enjoyed 30% ROI on my investment – especially international growth in 2009. When that 10% hit comes, I’m well cushioned.
Now that Obama and other world leaders stabilized their respective economies in 2009, we are positioned to get growth and jobs back on track in 2010.
Finally the disastrous Bush/Cheney house of cards fiasco is being cleaned up.
#2,
It appears to have started today on back to back bad real estate news and job news. Everyone I know in trader forums is 100% cash ATM.
#3 I’ll look but did the end start today? Really?
I just did a randon Google search and found this:
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20100105_realestateoutlook.htm
The outlook right now is a complete contrast: Home sales have been rising for months, thanks in part to the federal tax credit programs; new home starts and permits are up in most parts of the country; and prices generally are trending up in most of the markets that got shell-shocked in the bust.
Rise in US equities = carry trades.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-carry-trade-a-potential-probem-for-equities-2009-12-10
And when such things suddenly unwind, it is sudden and dramatic.
BTW, money markets with their paltry returns and no FDIC insurance are probably going to become something the government can freeze you from redeeming in the next crisis:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/government-your-legal-right-redeem-your-money-market-account-has-been-denied
Tiny excerpt:
…new regulations proposed by the administration, and specifically by the ever-incompetent Securities and Exchange Commission, seek to pull one of these three core pillars from the foundation of the entire money market industry, by changing the primary assumptions of the key Money Market Rule 2a-7. A key proposal in the overhaul of money market regulation suggests that money market fund managers will have the option to “suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets.” You read that right: this does not refer to the charter of procyclical, leveraged, risk-ridden, transsexual (allegedly) portfolio manager-infested hedge funds like SAC, Citadel, Glenview or even Bridgewater (which in light of ADIA’s latest batch of problems, may well be wishing this was in fact the case), but the heart of heretofore assumed safest and most liquid of investment options: Money Market funds, which account for nearly 40% of all investment company assets. The next time there is a market crash, and you try to withdraw what you thought was “absolutely” safe money, a back office person will get back to you saying, “Sorry – your money is now frozen. Bank runs have become illegal.” This is precisely the regulation now proposed by the administration. In essence, the entire US capital market is now a hedge fund, where even presumably the safest investment tranche can be locked out from within your control when the ubiquitous “extraordinary circumstances” arise.
#5 When I read your excerpt
“….the charter of procyclical, leveraged, risk-ridden, transsexual (allegedly) portfolio manager-infested hedge funds like SAC, Citadel..”
That was all I had to see to throw whatever message you had in mind into the toilet.
#6: Zerohedge authors are definitely not politically correct. If you want that, go to any of the mainstream financial media sites who totally failed to see the current crisis coming right up to the date the market crashed.
More financially correct comments from another politically incorrect site:
“This is the essence of “financial innovation” folks: IT IS A SCAM.
I can make a crapload of money selling you “auto insurance” for $100 a year. If I was to do so I would probably make $100 million dollars in three months! My initial books would look great – only a few of you would have accidents immediately and so long as I kept selling policies faster than people crashed everything would be fine.
But this does not change the fact that over the course of the year there is no chance I would be able to pay off on the claims. It is mathematically impossible for the full term of those contracts to be honored.
This is what the so-called “financial innovation” was, in point of fact. It was nothing more complicated than a Ponzi Scheme that INEVITABLY had to fail.
The bad news is that we have NOT removed the Ponzi – indeed, we are once again seeing things like PIK/Toggle bonds and the CDS monster has not been neutered.
As a consequence of these facts it is inevitable that a second crash will occur, as we have not learned a damn thing. We have not locked up those who made mathematically-impossible claims of performance and we have not barred them from doing so now and in the future. We have instead bailed out the mathematically impossible – this time – while allowing the scam to continue and in fact increase in intensity, which guarantees not only a second crash but a worse one.
This outcome is assured folks. It is simply the math of the matter – 2 + 2 cannot equal 6, no matter how many times someone tries to claim it does.”