New evidence suggests that the correlation between atmospheric carbon and warming may not be as clear as previously believed

Global warming is an extremely sensitive topic. Some ardently believe that man is pushing our planet towards global ruin, while others believe that proponents of anthropogenic warming theory are pushing the global economy towards financial ruin. Surprisingly, though, the evidence is not as black or white as either group would like you to believe.

A recent study looking at atmospheric carbon when combined with a recent summary of global atmospheric temperatures over the past 30 years sharply illustrates this uncertainty.

Why do I have a feeling Al Gore won’t be happy about this part:

With the international community puzzling over expensive climate change legislation, it is important to consider carefully what landmarks by which to gauge “success” amid the uncertainty of cyclic variation. Furthermore, critics and proponents aside, the wisest approach seems to be to avoid schemes that throw money into the wind, such as carbon trading or carbon sequestration.

The Copenhagen talks are going nowhere.




  1. soundwash says:

    Does *anyone* know how to do their
    own research anymore? -or is it normal to just take what you are spoon-fed in school/academia and the media and never question anything ever again because “the experts”
    have spoken?

    In google you get 124,000 hits on “scientists baffled” and 74,600 hits “baffled scientists” -that’s a total
    of 198,600 times the people we rely upon to define our reality have been
    dare i say, confused if not outright wrong.

    A combined total of 23,120 times they have been baffled (read: bloody f’n clueless) –*in the last year alone!

    They were baffled no less than 63 times A DAY! -63x times.

    Funny, I thought the science was settled on everything from climate change to how the planets and the universe worked.

    Would you still entrust your life to the mechanic you take your car to if he responded to every question or problem you had with your car with,

    “-my god, I’m completely baffled as to why its doing that” -even after the 63rd question of the
    day??

    -and this after knowing he spent half his life in best schools of his trade..?

    Have you even asked your mechanic 63 questions in the past 5 years??

    No? -then WHY do you blindly trust what *any* gov-funded science study says..esp when it was founded on the “science findings” and desires of
    a politician?

    The simple reason why the CO2 levels don’t match government and IPCC fantasy models is because the oceans have been absorbing all the co2.

    –and now, the oceans are warming because the region of space we are passing through is highly energetic and causing all the planets to heat up from within.

    -In our case, this is causing the oceans to heat up and thus they are `giving up all the CO2′ they have been sequestering for the past 11,000 years or so, -including industrial humanity’s *very minor* contribution the past 100 years or so.

    (warm water cannot hold as many dissolved gasses as cold water can,
    Capeche?)

    -you know the bubbles you see
    when you boil water? -how’s that
    for a major clue?)

    This is in part, why the idiots in government funded academia and science cannot get their CO2 models
    to work.

    (the main part of course, is because they are paid not to..)

    They they also still assume the planet is an isolated body and nothing external to it effects
    the weather, -or anything else.

    They would not even allow “solar forcing” (ie The Sun) into the equations of their coveted math
    models!

    Imagine that! This essentially
    saying:

    “Ahhh yeah, The Sun has nothing to
    do with the Earth’s Weather system”

    Funny, it seems to me “common sense” would lead one to believe that without Our Sun, there not only would be no life, but this planet would be frozen solid and most likely not even exist in it’s current form! (-or iteration)

    –So yes, the sun has nothing to do with anything in our solar system, -please ignore it.
    -mmkay.

    The current mainstream man-made global warming and/or climate change hoax is based on models that only measure surface temperatures alone, and do not account for contributions from oceans, the estimated 3 million+ volcanoes IN the oceans, or the some 39,00+ having been found to be over a kilometer high (and active), with many lying on the tectonic plate
    fault lines)

    Climate change obviously exists,
    but not for the reasons we have
    been sold.

    Of course, space weather has
    nothing to do with is either.

    http://newscientist.com/article/dn12218

    The Co2 (and acidity) levels of the oceans are approaching what they were by some estimates, 100 million years ago. -If I recall, this “discovery was made back in 2006-2007.

    (Politics keeps you from the truth.)

    This is largely due in part, to the huge increase in underwater volcanoes (and above) in the past several years.

    Science has been compromised for profit, religious and political
    dogma.

    Our weather and the universe is 99%
    electromagnetic in nature.

    Consciousness, makes up the other 1% if not actually 50% or more of “Reality” –and is “the glue” that holds it together.

    In order for “true” science to understand anything, -and for you to finally get a clue, –as scary as
    it may sound, it has to combine electromagnetic science, and spirituality as one body of
    work, -one body of science.

    “They” are currently trying to
    explain it (and our future) to you
    in the last five year’s+ worth of “entertainment” -pay attention.

    You can start by understanding
    the Electric Nature of the
    weather here:

    http://holoscience.com/news.php?article=9eq6g3aj

    Will you take the next step and
    search out how consciousness plays
    a role? -and how Time, -is not
    linear, -but a thing in part, that can be molded by your will, that you can step outside of, -if you allow
    it?

    Learn how to overcome it, -and your spirit will survive intact, no matter what adversity lies ahead.

    -s

  2. MikeN says:

    Some e-mails from climate scientists that were supposedly hacked and put online. CRU, the organization that was allegedly hacked, has changed all its passwords.

    “Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…
    What do others think?
    mike

    “From: Phil Jones
    To: “Michael E. Mann”
    Subject: IPCC & FOI
    Date: Thu May 29 11:04:11 2008

    Mike,

    Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
    Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment – minor family crisis.
    Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t
    have his new email address.
    We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.
    I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!!
    Cheers
    Phil”
    “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. ”

    “From: Kevin Trenberth
    To: Michael Mann
    Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
    Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
    Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer

    Hi all
    Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in
    Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We
    had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it
    smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a
    record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies
    baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing
    weather).
    Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global
    energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27,
    doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained
    from the author.)
    The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
    travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008
    shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing
    system is inadequate.”

    So either this is very damning for some prominent scientists, or possibly the most elaborate hoax of all time, since the total is 62 MB.

  3. Ralph, the Bus Driver says:

    #65, MikeN,

    I’m not too worried about ocean absorption. It isn’t acid being added to an ocean, it is CO2

    CO2 in water becomes acidic. This acid dissolves limestone and is a major reason so much marble and limestone facades on buildings are being eaten away.

    which is what is needed to build the shells that are supposedly thinning

    Nope. Calcium carbonate is the chief component of marine shells. The most readily available form is known as limestone. In the presence of acids, calcium carbonate will dissolve.

    Calcium carbonate will react with water that is saturated with carbon dioxide to form the soluble calcium bicarbonate.

    CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O → Ca(HCO3)2

    This reaction is important in the erosion of carbonate rocks, forming caverns, and leads to hard water in many regions.

    So the sinks have been been absorbing larger additional amounts each year, showing no signs of saturation.

    When you change the conditions in any environment you also change the environment. Even your example of thinning marine shells, using the oceans as a CO2 sink does have consequences.

  4. Ralph, the Bus Driver says:

    #68, MikeN,

    Again you post bogus crap. I just spent some time searching for this and the only reports are coming from paranoia blogs. Even the university in question wasn’t interviewed. No reputable news source has even reported on it.

    Can you say bullshit? Well why not say more bullshit.

  5. #65 – MikeN,

    I’m not too worried about ocean absorption. It isn’t acid being added to an ocean, it is CO2, which is what is needed to build the shells that are supposedly thinning. Those shells are always being shed, and they get replenished by additional CO2.

    Actually, when the CO2 mixes with the water it makes carbonic acid. It is acid being added to the ocean. We’ve already dumped 575 billion metric tons of CO2, the equivalent of 287 billion full sized cars, into the ocean. It is having a measurable effect on PH. It is adding acid to the ocean.

    And, like climate change, it is not equal around the globe. Cooler waters dissolve more gas than warmer waters. So, the same high latitudes that have more oxygen and hence more life and are the main ocean fisheries are also absorbing more carbon dioxide, forming more carbonic acid, and becoming disproportionately more acidic.

    The point is that the increase is not from 280 to 385 ppm, it is from 280 to 700 ppm, with 315 of that 700 gets absorbed. Another 6ppm the next year, and 3 more get absorbed. So the sinks have been been absorbing larger additional amounts each year, showing no signs of saturation.

    Wow. What a complete and utter piece of bullshit! Yes, a lot of carbon is being absorbed by the ocean, thus causing a potential crisis there, but there is also still a lot more carbon in the atmosphere causing a potential crisis in the air. So, instead of one crisis, we have two. And, because of that, you are willing to ignore both?

    The fact that WattsUpWithThat links to a paper, makes the paper worthless? Then I guess he should just link to all the papers RealClimate links to, and you will become a skeptic!

    Actually, you didn’t link to anything. So, I didn’t go to that lay person’s amazingly stupid blog yet again. If you want me to read a paper, link to the paper.

    Here’s an example of why I don’t read that particular lay person’s blog. It’s because the author is an idiot who does not even know how to read a simple graph.

    http://tinyurl.com/y8c7sxk

  6. #66 – 01001010 01101001 01101101 01010010,

    Re#46, Mis Scott, Your post #29 Is as much BS as any of the charts I posted. There is no indication of the original source of the data, who the independent statisticians were, and if they were arms length from the IPCC, or NASA. The data was presented from the Associated Press. Very scientific and trustworthy. (Not)

    Perhaps. However, there is indication that they had no idea they were looking at climate numbers. So, perhaps you missed the point that they could not possibly be biased.

    “Published peer-reviewed scientific research generally cites temperatures measured by ground sensors, which are from NOAA, NASA and the British, more than the satellite data.”

    Satellite data gives cooler temperatures, so let’s NOT use that data because it might screw up our unbiased high temperature data.

    Funny. I thought we were concerned with surface temperatures, being a surface bound species.

    Your lack of comment on the real trend as shown in my second posted chart in post #44 speaks volumes on your biased agenda.

    That graph is not very detailed around the present. There is also no source and no indication of what the present date is. Did you make it yourself? Please post the article from which you got the graph. A little context would help.

    Lastly, do you dispute that CO2 is what keeps our planet at a balmy 15C rather than a frigid -18C? CO2 is the blanket that keeps our planet at a comfortable temperature. How could increasing it from 280 to 385 ppm not be having an effect? It simply makes no sense.

  7. #67 – soundwash,

    When you do “your own research” if a google hit count can be called research, you might at least try Google Scholar.

    http://scholar.google.com/

    Using ordinary google will get people’s opinions that, just like your own, are worthless.

    The rest of your post further shows your own ignorance. The ocean is not boiling. The sun is accounted for in climate models (high solar activity has been responsible for about 5-15% of the warming we’ve observed, the other 85-95 is us).

    The Co2 (and acidity) levels of the oceans are approaching what they were by some estimates, 100 million years ago. -If I recall, this “discovery was made back in 2006-2007.

    Um … I think you mean either 55 MYA or 250 MYA. 55 MYA was after the KT extinction. Once the temps began to cool from then, we got an explosion of life. 250 MYA was the P/T extinction, the worst this planet has seen.

    Warm periods are strongly associated with and recently being proven to be the cause of mass extinctions with the exception of the most recent which was due to cometary impact. Though, even in the last, note that the number of species did not bounce back ’til the earth cooled.

    So, how much warming does it take for mass extinction? The worst of all was the P/T extinction with a temperature just 6C warmer than today, well in line with our worst case estimates for anthropogenic climate change.

    And, keep in mind, humans have never survived a warmer period than today. We don’t know that we can. It is warmer now than for all 200,000 years of human history.

    Let’s just see how warm we can take it. It’s not as if our lives depend on the outcome … oh wait … it is.

    Oh, and when the popular press says scientists are baffled, that’s code for “we need more readership”. They do the same thing with other sciences as well. Some minor detail is questioned like whether our common ancestor with chimps was more chimp like or whether chimps also evolved a lot since 6-7 million years ago, and they report that evolution is in question.

  8. MikeN says:

    Scott, no it isn’t acid being added to the ocean it is CO2. As you say, the CO2 then forms acid, but that is quite different from acid being added to an ocean.

    Ralph, the calcium carbonate is being shedded all the time, and gets rebuilt with more CO2. The shells are not built once in time like limestone buildings, then being worn away.

  9. MikeN says:

    Scott back to the CO2 carbon sinks. Let’s look at it with some numbers.

    In 1959 there was .95 ppm CO2 added to the atmosphere. Actual carbon emissions were higher than this, about 2 ppm.
    CO2 emissions have been increasing, and CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been increasing as well, roughly in step with each other.

    So we can say that in 1959, the oceans, forests, etc absorbed the equivalent of 1.05 ppm CO2.
    Then in 2007, the carbon emissions were much higher, the equivalent of 4.5 ppm CO2.
    So if nature absorbed 1.05 ppm CO2, then that would cause an annual increase of 3.45 ppm CO2, but instead the increase was just 2.2 ppm, the same ratio as before.

    Only the ppm CO2 numbers were accurate in the above example, as I have to find the paper. I suspect their methods were a bit more complicated, as the Mauna Loa numbers change wildly year to year.

  10. MikeN says:

    >No reputable news source has even reported on it.

    Well it only came out last night. SO give it time, or perhaps it will make the list of under-reported stories on this blog for next year.

    I’m going through some of the e-mails right now. You can download them yourself. Just search for FOI2009.zip, I got mine from megaupload.com

  11. #75 – MikeN,

    Scott, no it isn’t acid being added to the ocean it is CO2. As you say, the CO2 then forms acid, but that is quite different from acid being added to an ocean.

    How so?

    In either case, we add something to the water that makes it acidic. In either case, the pteropods can’t form their shells and die. In either case, the ocean PH falls. In either case, most of the ocean food chain is destroyed.

    What difference does it make whether we dump CO2 into the ocean that then forms carbonic acid and causes this to happen or whether we actually dump in a whole bunch of already formed carbonic acid?

  12. #76 – MikeN,

    I see your point that there are carbon sinks in the world, and thus far, they are still absorbing carbon.

    What I don’t see is why you think this means we can continue to dump ever increasing levels of carbon into the atmosphere.

    Point 1: The atmospheric carbon is still increasing despite the carbon sinks.

    Point 2: There is a limit to the carbon sinks even if we haven’t hit it yet.

    So, what exactly is your point? Can we keep burning all the coal and oil faster than ever or not?

    I think not.

  13. Mr. Fusion says:

    #75, Lyin’ Mike,

    Here is a very good explanation for what happens when CO2 is absorbed in water.

    Sea chemistry

    This may have slowed global warming, but it also led to a change in seawater chemistry.

    According to Richard Feely, of NOAA, and his colleagues, that might make life pretty hard for some shell-forming marine animals.

    Corals, pteropod molluscs and some plankton (single celled organisms) pull carbonate ions from the seawater to produce their calcium carbonate shells.

    But, as the CO2 concentrations in the water increase, the carbonate ion concentrations decrease.

    This means the animals lack the materials with which to build their shells.

    And in areas where CO2 concentrations are particularly high, Professor Feely’s team claim, the animal’s shells can actually begin to dissolve.

    “Based on our present knowledge, it appears that as seawater CO2 levels rise, the skeletal growth rates of calcareous plankton will be reduced – as a result of the effects of CO2 on calcification,” said co-author Victoria Fabry, of California State University, US.

    Atmospheric acid does not occur until the base, such as sulfer, comes in contact and absorbs moisture. This then falls as Acid Rain. CO2 reacts the same way.

    #76, The point you miss is the oceans are absorbing only half the CO2 produced. The remainder is still in our atmosphere where it is acting to retain the planet’s heat. While ocean absortion may reduce the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere, it doesn’t eliminate it.

  14. MikeN says:

    #79 both of your points are valid.

  15. MikeN says:

    As an add on look at the first point. Why did CO2 go up earlier, if the total increase was less than what is absorbed by sinks in recent years? It suggests that the amount of carbon sink is also a feedback of higher carbon. The biosphere responds to higher levels of carbon by producing more trees or bigger ones, etc.

  16. Glenn E. says:

    I like that protest banner, “Rich Countries Pay Your Climate Debt.” Hmmm, does this include China? Good luck ever getting them to compensate for their ramp up of industrialization, and increased pollution. Forcing the US, UK, and France to pay up, will just move even more jobs to China. Only the small businesses and the lower income citizens will pay this climate tax. And undeveloped counties will only become developed enough, to handle the jobs that moved there from the already developed countries, that are saddled with the tax (and the undeveloped aren’t paying).

  17. deowll says:

    I think it is safe to say that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. How good a green house gas is another question and it is by no means clear that the slow and very irregular warming trend of the past 300 years is being caused by CO2. In fact it is impossible to even tell if CO2 is having a measurable impact.

    I still have a book stashed somewhere predicting we were entering a new Ice Age. Some of the leaders of that scare are leaders in this scare. To many of them are making money off their claims.

    Weather changes, climate changes. The modals all have holes in them you could drive a super tanker through.

  18. Rick Cain says:

    Thats because the ocean is absorbing it all, but there’s a tipping point.

    Not to worry though, there will be a mass human die-off which will correct things for the next 1000 years or so.


0

Bad Behavior has blocked 4455 access attempts in the last 7 days.