Researchers from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory said asteroid Apophis has just a four in a million chance of hitting Earth, while previous estimates of impact were pegged at one in 45,000.
Apophis has been on the minds of astronomers since 2004, when there was a 2.7% chance of impact in 2029 — the asteroid has a diameter almost three football fields in diameter. Given its size, it’s significantly smaller than the six-mile-wide asteroid believed to have impacted Earth and eliminated dinosaur life on the planet.
After the threat of a 2029 impact was reduced, astronomers believed 2036 is the most likely year it could hit our planet.
According to the calculations calculated by the University of Hawaii 88-inch telescope and 90-inch Bok telescope, Apophis is expected to pass within 18,000 miles of Earth in 2029.
>>According to the calculations calculated by the University of Hawaii 88-inch telescope and 90-inch Bok telescope
Where can I get one of those calculating telescopes?
Dan
PS I think tonight I will look at the moon through my calculator.
Data is improved resulting in new results. So?
I don’t see how they can be so precise with their calculations, how can they have an idea of apophis’s mass. Asteriodes have been known to have varying densities, do we know it’s mass? No, from spectral analysis they assume that the surface will reveal internal density, a pretty dangerous assumption if you ask me. If not how can they possibly make such precise calculations. In any case it’s a low probrability, great, but these people trying to demonstrate how smart they are by calculating a precise probability like Spock in Star Trek. A little humility’s in order here.
Well, that sounds SO much better than 1 in 250,000.
Apophis is expected to pass within 18,000 miles of Earth in 2029.
Viewed on a scale the size of our solar system, 18,000 miles is a bullet missing you by the length of one days shave.
Didja notice that since the scientists have developed the means to track and spot near miss asteroids, there have been more of them than you would ever imagine, given the history of civilization? I mean, up until now, nobody cared or worried about it. Now it is a big fucking deal only because somebody can find all these rocks that have been whizzing around forever. Look at the moon. How do you think it got that pretty look?
#6 ” Look at the moon. How do you think it got that pretty look?”
Teenage Acne?
#6 Look at the moon. How do you think it got that pretty look?
Bible says the sun and the moon were set in motion on the 4th day. Then God created the earth’s natural resources needed for life.
Nobody really knows why the moon was created or why it looks like this. Is it a spare? I have no idea.
Alfred1 – can you shed some light on this mystery?
Good point Mac Guy. Why didn’t they just say 1 in 250,000?
Nine comments and no one yet noticed (now a bit exaggerated):
“…the asteroid has a diameter almost three football fields in diameter. Given its diameter, it’s significantly smaller in diameter than the six-mile-wide in diameter asteroid believed to have impacted Earth and eliminated dinosaur life on the planet.
…
According to the calculations calculated by the University of Hawaii 88-inch telescope and 90-inch Bok telescope, Apophis is calculated to pass within 18,000 miles of Earth in 2029…”
Look at it this way. If that thing where to hit the US it shouldn’t take out more than a few states. As long it’s the West coast who cares? Okay so I’d have to find a new place to post because no more John but I shouldn’t have to miss a day’s work.
#12 deowll
Not funny! It’s just a matter of time before something like that should happen… Millions dead in an instant. Environmental impacts that could kill millions more the following years. Not funny at all.
Ok,
First they talk about the 2036 collision.
Then mistake the Flyby of 2029..
Then discuss the 2029 collision, NOT HAPPENING??
What happened to 2036??
OK..
GO READ the short article..
SOMEONE severely edited this post.
“After the threat of a 2029 impact was reduced, astronomers believed 2036 is the most likely year it could hit our planet.
According to the calculations calculated by the University of Hawaii 88-inch telescope and 90-inch Bok telescope, Apophis is expected to pass within 18,000 miles of Earth in 2029.
The close pass could later alter its future trajectory, which has astronomers extremely worried the asteroid could make another pass at Earth.
“We’ve all but ruled out” the collision in 2036, according to JPL Near-Earth Object astronomer Steve Chesley. “The deflection caused by the 2029 encounter will be significant. We’re not worried about 2029. We’re worried about its future trajectory.”
NASA and other space programs, along with university researchers, are putting more research into tracking distant asteroids and other bodies that could one day hit Earth.”
Uncle dave said..”I feel so relieved. ”
So you used the restroom??
another expert another prediction
just like
the war in iraq being a quick war
the financial mess we are in
global warming and unusual weather events
almost as many experts as asshats
“the asteroid has a diameter almost three football fields in diameter.”…
For those of you who don’t understand that scientific lingo… it’s just over 5 official hockey rinks or 12 baseball diamonds in diameter.
FYI, the speed of light in a vacuum (Hoover Vortex) is 10,929,100 baseball diamonds / second.
#4 Mac Guy is right…
Why not 1 in 250k? How is that different than 4 in a million?
Considering how close it comes, those odds, and the massive downside if we “loose”, this actually is not all that happy of news.
#18 and the rest of you..
READ THE ARTICLE…
AS I posted in my comment.
It does not say ANYTHING about the 2036 impact..
Its a HAPPY NOTE..to make you feel better.
Why do I get the feeling people from the G.O.P. are already building super strong bunkers?