Some folks (e.g., The Concord Coalition) are saying the 10-year deficit could be $14 trillion or more. If the deficit is anything even close to $10 trillion over the next decade, this puts us in largely uncharted waters, since it would represent the biggest deficit, in both nominal terms and relative to GDP since World War II. Deficits could range from 6-10% of GDP annually, far out of the range of anything we’ve seen in the post-war period.

So I began asking myself some tough questions, especially since I’ve been saying that the economy can grow 3-4% a year in spite of the ugly fiscal policy environment staring us in the face. Just how easily are these deficits going to be financed? Could they effectively absorb all or most of the savings of the private sector, leaving the economy with little or no private-sector investment? Could this be the real “crowding-out” of private borrowers that became a fashionable concern during the Reagan years but in the end proved overblown? How can the economy grow if the government—a chronically inefficient spender and investor—is commandeering nearly all the economy’s savings? Annual deficits on the order of 10% of the GDP are reminiscent of Japan in recent decades, and haven’t they led to a moribund economy and a crippled stock market?
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But these trillion-dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see are being driven primarily by a big increase in government spending. So that leaves us with the worst of all worlds, doesn’t it? How can one be optimistic in the face of this impending disaster?