The blog doesn’t usually feature produced videos of this kind since the way they are presented clearly shows a bias. However, when you consider what’s being said in the video and the recent outbreak of Swine flu, your mind wanders towards interesting and frightening conspiracy theories.
Support the Blog — Buy This Book!
For Kindle and with free ePub version. Only $9.49 Great reading.
Here is what Gary Shapiro CEO of the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) said: Dvorak's writing sings with insight and clarity. Whether or not you agree with John's views, he will get you thinking and is never boring. These essays are worth the read!
Put this ad on your blog!
Syndicate
Subscribe to Main Blog feed here:
Subscribe to Comments too (below):
Junk Email Filter
There is a simple solution to huge growth: EDUCATE WOMEN. Male dominated societies purposely keep their women uneducated, or less educated. The results are huge birth rates. The countries with low birth rates are all the ones that educate their girls equally as their boys.
Immigrants to these western countries, assuming they are not segregated and treated as second class citizens, end up fully adapting the countries culture within two generations. You see that with Hispanics here in the US. First generation speaks only Spanish, second generation is bilingual, third generation speaks only English.
Ultimately the message of this video is racism, and has nothing to do with religion.
#33 Alfred1 …the alternative lifestyles and blasphemies of the left only inflame Islamic fire.
Then to protect America we need more Gays and profanity– possibly nudity on broadcast television. It’s the only way to keep the Islamics out of our country. God Bless the Left!
# 35 Alfred1
Oh come on man!!! I have a ton more examples of profanity on this board. It is more than inconsistant it is selective.
Gosh, all the way to the last post to have my questions asked: What is the call to action?
How is “religion” not a demographic?
Where is the bias? Getting a few facts wrong, if they are, is not bias, it is an error.
If the true replacement rate is 2.5, then the lack of sustainability situation is even worse==that might be a bias against the central point of the video?
Regardless of error or bias, one can “model” demographic changes with assumptions to guage the minimum and maximum ranges. This video may indeed be somewhere in the middle.
So==look around. There are “other” factors, but what do societies look like that are all or mostly Muslim? What would have to happen to make Western Europe any different?
Does religion make a people/culture any “different” in a way that matters beyond prejudice?
We can all have our own fears/predictions but it would be silly to think that “change” would not result. Change maybe that you and I could not tolerate. Change that would be seen as normal by our children, moreso the agents of change?
And we all know that change is constant.
#38 Alfred1 …if you love America and its freedoms…there is no alternative to having our own children raised in it.
Yes. Because as Americans, we want our children to be raised in a Christian Theocracy and not a Muslim one.
We want out women barefoot and pregnant, not wearing a silly hijab.
So, what do we do now, wait?
# 41 bobbo
The 2.5 number is for high mortality rate countries and that number is PURE speculation based on assumptions. It is not based on observations. It is not a scientific model. It is a mathematical one.
“Regardless of error or bias, one can “model” demographic changes with assumptions to gauge the minimum and maximum ranges. ”
Yeah if you want to have a basis for fear mongering. It has no value in social science or science.
I’ll make the sacrifice and screw any willing non-Muslim. I think my boys are ready for action. Paddy-0-Alfie why don’t you two go after the Muslims and thereby we can be increasing their rot from within at the same time we strengthen our own pure bodily essences.
C’mon ladies, do the patriotic thing.
# 45 Alfred1
“J, its an imperfect, unjust world…”
That doesn’t make it right.
“Every day i see articles that disparage conservatives…and avoid questioning Obama’s stimulus or the Feds printing of money.”
Different issue and one that I disagree with you completly on. I think there is a pretty even balance here on the “for and against” debate.
I have some trouble believing the 8 kids per family statistic, but the overall message is obvious. And there is no solution.
Mark Steyn has made several videos on this problem.
One of the best videos is done by Roy Beck using gumballs to illustrate the immigration problem. http://bit.ly/a7N38
#46–J==is this “Chicago J?” You sound a bit hysterical for him, but who knows the quality of crack you have been on the last few weeks?
Modeling with assumptions is not fear mongering. Some will like the increase in Muslim types and others wont.
Fear mongering is complete projection on your part. Also, you all but expressly admit there are replacement fertility rates that vary based on mortality/morbity factors and male/female rations. It probably will be between 2.1 and 2.5 and this video chose 2.1 which really is a “bias” against the fear mongering position, or was it just more subtle creep?
Speaking of creeps, I await your response. (smile–just word play J-J)
#30
> It is manifest legalized and
> encouraged Abortion is a
> disaster for both Europe and
> the US…analogous to a plague.
FFS, are you serious? You are blaming the population growth rates on abortion? The number of abortions, legal or illegal, is so small that it is ludicrous to compare it to the birth rate. Why don’t we ban condoms and encourage more sex to “stimulate” population growth? That is equally ridiculous to blaming abortion.
> “get pregnant now” campaign
So, you want tax payers to provide encouragement to other tax payers for having babies? Yet another reasons for having a small, financially weak central government: the tendency to do social planning.
> Personally, I think Jesus
> returning before “Islamic Day”…
> BUT, while you secular cowards
> quake in your boots and grant
> them Sharia law and schools
> of their own…lest you be beheaded
So, let me get this straight. Your mythical deity will return before Muslims “take over” and do absolutely nothing about it. What a guy!
#43 Alfred1 So you better smell the coffee, stop pouting the loon propaganda we are as dangerous to you as Islam…and start having babies.
I’m flattered. Really. But you’re not my type.
I do however agree with you on this one point… I would hate an Islamic Theocracy.
But in this thread you have said that only Conservative understand freedom, and have implied that only true Christians can be conservatives. No? So maybe you don’t want the Pope as President, but do you want the 10 Commandments made into law? Outlaw those godless gay marriages? Outlaw abortions? Do you support laws that go against the scriptures? That’s a Theocracy, buddy.
Christianity run amok is as dangerous to non-Christians (or even Christians who disagree with the majority) as any other religion. Shall we talk of the Jews in 1930’s Germany? Or Mormons in the 1800’s?
Seems that on more modeling, without this Muslim religious/political pressure the world population collapse by overbreeding would have occured 20 years later.
Damn, so close!
Falsehoods in the video.
First of all the video starts with a very large falsehood: “Research has shown that a culture…” This is false. 2.1 children per woman is the replacement fertility rate for a COUNTRY or a REGION, NOT (and this is very important) a culture. There is a very large difference between what a culture is an what a country is (you can read more online if interested).
The video states that Islam is a culture. A religion/ethnicity is not a culture. Moreover, even if we assumed Islam was a culture, which it’s not, there’s as much (or even more?) variation politically, economically and culturally in the Islamic world as there is in the “Christian” world (where Christianity and Catholicism are the dominant religion).
Falsehood: (Minute 03:25) “In 39 years France will be an Islamic Republic.”
Here they are deliberately trying to confuse the viewer. The phrase “Islamic Republic” is used normally to refer to theocratic states, such as Iran or Saudi Arabia. In many countries Islam is the dominant or even state religion, but they’re NOT a theocracy: Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Turkey, etc.
And also, the premier anti-clerical French state becoming a theocratic state? C’mon! If that doesn’t raise a huge red flag, I don’t know what will.
Falsehood: I was reviewing the latest figures for “Total fertility (children per woman)” at the U.N.’s database (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) and there are several noticeable differences with the numbers presented by the video.
On cultural change:
All cultures change over time adapting to new endogenous and exogenous developments. The flux of immigrants is not the only (or even the dominant) vector in the change of a culture. Among the endogenous factors, there is always a flux of different subcultures within a country and as some subgroups are economically and politically dominant, their subcultures become dominant. Although numbers are important there are many instances all over the world where being economically dominant is more important to determine the dominant culture, and even in this case there are many cultural traditions that coexist and interact over time.
Lower population rates associated with western advanced countries are also associated with larger resources going into the education, health and general well-being of the child, which ultimately leads to a higher level of productivity in their future life. As such, these children have a much better chance of getting the best and most high-paying jobs in the country, accessing the political and economic cusp and in turn favoring (though not necessarily imposing, not consciously at least) their own cultural tastes as part of the dominant subcultures adopted by the media.
In a globalized world people are not only competing locally, but on a world basis, and the best educated in a country will become local as well as world elites. At the same time, the cultural products consumed locally are not only produced nationally but imported from the world’s cultural, economic and political center. For decades now, the U.S. has been the world’s premier exporter of culture, and influenced cultural changes, even though immigration from the U.S. has not been that important. Another example is India, a large exporter of movies and cultural tastes in Asia. Growing up in Peru, I remember my mother buying me children’s books produced by USSR or China’s cultural ministries (children’s adaptations of Journey to the West (the Monkey King) or Tolstoy’s children stories) while I only wanted to watch American-produced cartoons. I also remember the first tape I bought, Iron Maiden’s Number of the Beast. This is to show that while migration is a very important vector in cultural change it’s not the only one and that assertions as to the fate of a culture require an in-depth analysis of all the other determinant factors.
The only thing that can be said from the “facts” presented in the video is that yes, the cultural traditions of these countries will start to incorporate elements from the different Islamic cultures (which one will depend on what country does the migration come from), as they have also incorporated elements from the American culture during the last century. Nevertheless, according to my experience and anthropological training, and except for the cases of a successful invasion, most cultures incorporate new elements from other cultures on their own terms.
# 53 bobbo
Yeah it is me. I woke up on the wrong side of bed today, it is raining, and let out a few expletives in my posts.
I, the real me, haven’t been posting for a while and I noticed the other day that someone was using the name J. I hope they have been true to my nature. The post I saw pretty much was. I know the folks a DU know that it isn’t me.
“Modeling with assumptions is not fear mongering.”
No, but it is useless and being used for that purpose.
“Fear mongering is complete projection on your part.”
Oh come on!!!!! That video is propaganda fear mongering at it’s worst. Not to mention they LIE about the 1.9 and 1.3 numbers because there is nothing to support those claims. Not even mathematically.
“Also, you all but expressly admit there are replacement fertility rates that vary based on mortality/morbity factors and male/female rations. ”
Only mathematically. In the real world where nature can be observed these numbers and models don’t hold up. Observation is a key in science and the study of nature. These numbers do not come from that!
“It probably will be between 2.1 and 2.5……..”
Mathematically yes but those numbers come from a model that makes many assumptions about nature and human behavior that are not predictable. They don’t arrive at them through observation or study but purely through math.
# 55 Alfred1
“J, so bias is in the eyes of the beholder?”
What the hell are you talking about? Did you ask that question so you could write your follow up because it makes no sense based on my post?
“Yes, it is…and its an unjust world, imperfect…we must still exist.”
So I guess you support slavery and torture?
“Moderation of any board seems like an overwhelming (and thankless) task and I’ll not join you in complaining about any deficiencies.”
I am sure it is. No one is asking you to join anything. Get off your ego!!
Overall feeling: So what? It’s not like catholics, of which I am one, are any better or worse. I don’t get what the big deal is.
Oh, and what action are we being called to? If you think about it, muslims and cathlolics could use the same video for their own causes.
#61–Chicago J==glad to have you back, hope you stay awhile, especially if you post so as to get yourself banned. We need you passion to counter the cold mathematical precision of Paddy-O-Alfie.
I don’t “get” the distinction you make between a “model” and real nature. Real nature has a replacement rate. Approximating it as best we can with measurable factors is the best we can do, always measuring and correcting predictions against performance. There is no other alternative.
Besides, the actual/real numbers time frame is a quibble. THE POINT is, poor uneducated people have nothing to do but procreate, poor uneducated people can have their heads filled with religious idiocy of any type, the type right now is Muslim, and the open question is can idiot religious types be civilized over time or will their Luddite fantasies swamp the world politically before their numbers will ecologically.
Paddy-O-Alfie is under the impression it is better if we all die off from simple over population than from edicts from the wrong god.
The end will always be the same under all scenarios. Spin the roulette wheel often enough and 00 is going to show up.
“The world we live in will not be the same as the world our children and grandchildren live in…”
True. But the world we live in is not the same that my grandparents lived in either. We’ve got iPods and Pr0n. They had gramophone records and dirty postcards.
Why haven’t the Palestinians figured this out? If they just kept quiet for 20 years, they’d easily outnumber the Israelis, and could take over without firing a shot.
Hey #59==well said, but dribble. You are engaged in the worst of logical failures in argument and life: the FALSE either/or dicing of an issue. Low reproduction doesn’t matter because those children will capture/control the culture because of the jobs they get?
Hah!!!!
Its the jobless that revolt and send the ruling class to the guillotine.
Also key is you exchange culture for religion and in this case the Muslim religion–unique because it brooks no other culture/religion==not even variants of itself.
Quite different than the shallow hypocrisy of Christianity.
Societies/cultures change from time to time. Swaying to the good then the bad, then back. No reason not to think things can get worse for a while.
Change is constant.
# 66 bobbo
“cold mathematical precision of Paddy-O-Alfie.”
LOL I don’t know if that is how I would characterize him. I would say it is more like “the lukewarm drool of Paddy-cake the ignorant shit talker”
“I don’t “get” the distinction you make between a “model” and real nature. Real nature has a replacement rate. ”
Yes it does but it isn’t constant and doesn’t follow the criteria in the pre conceived manner set up to deliver those numbers. The method make no accommodation for larger number of female births it considers them to be even. It make no accommodation for a pandemic or mass extinction. This has many times in our history. It make no accommodation for genetic illness. It make no accommodation for war. The list goes on.
“Approximating it as best we can with measurable factors is the best we can do,”
No it isn’t and it a very poor way of going about it. It results in false numbers and allows asshats to use it like this. We are over populated by 3 times or more the sustainable limit of this planet and if we keep it up it won’t be a Muslim scare that ends us it will be nature itself.
“THE POINT is, poor uneducated people have nothing to do but ”
Too long of a conversation there.
“Paddy-O-Alfie is under the impression it is better if we all die off from simple over population than from edicts from the wrong god.”
Like I said lukewarm drool.
# 67 pedro
“Ah, a macfan is back”
Ah pedro just when I was starting to like you again you had to go and ruin it by being you.
J–so whats the alternative to modeling?
Your mind wanders towards interesting and frightening conspiracy theories if you are a F87King idiot. And your name is Adam Curry.
I for one welcome our new Islamic overlords. What is it we don’t like about the Muslim faith, anyway? It’s just as crazy as Christianity and less hypocritical too. There are examples of societies with Muslim majority that still entitle each individual to freedom of religion. This steady march toward world domination has been going on since the birth of Islam. There’s no stopping it.
# 72 bobbo
It isn’t a problem with modeling. It is a problem with the methods used and the lack of real world observation and study of nature.
They use a simple mathematical model. Which is like calculating you getting Swine Flu by using the U.S. population and your proximity to it as the only factor. Not how often you wash your hands. Not how many people you come in contact with. Not by how often you pick your nose. lol 😛 But only the population and your proximity to it.
Data achieved in this way is poor and can lead to fear mongering and is not anywhere near the real risk. Look at what is going on right now. They are acting like Swine Flu could be the downfall of man. As of yesterday there have only been 8 deaths.
umm…kill em all and let god sort’em out?
I’m glad I don’t have kids, what a shithole this planet is going to be.
#75–J==there is a 24 hour news cycle that has to be filled with something. Geography is easy to measure. Handwashing habits, not so much so geography is in the model and handwashing is not. Its the best we can do and I still don’t see your alternative.
Only 8 deaths so far. Ok. So how many people should die before anyone reports on it?
That town in Mexico had about 800 people who just about ALL got sick but only two babies died. Not very virulent strain – – – but – – -the 1918 flu did the same thing. The “first wave” was not very virulent but as it spread it morphed and the second strain rebounded and killed 50 Million.
Joe Biden said he personally would not travel in a closed vehicle if he had a choice.
We all have choices to make, from your post J, I don’t see on what basis you would make your choices.
Definition of Loon: The earth can easily handle 5 times the current population. All we need to do is sufficiently poison everything other than what we need.
The LACK of scientific orientation in flaming public display.
Religion aside, what an idiot.
#43, Alphie, the Evangelical, Sociopathic, Right Wing Nut, Loon, and Quaalude Queen,
A Christian theocracy will never exist…The Catholic Church’s attempt at creating one, was scripturally wrong and therefore failed.
Pray tell, would you name this Christian Theocracy the Catholic Church attempted?
“J”
Welcome back. Your wise and sage comments have been sorely missed.
I see you’ve met Alphie. Sorry.