Giampaolo Giuliani told locals to evacuate their houses and posted a video on YouTube in which he said a build-up of radon gas around the seismically active area of Abruzzo suggested a major earthquake was imminent.
Several tremors had been felt in the medieval city of L’Aquila, around 60 miles east of Rome, from mid-January onwards, and vans with loudspeakers had reportedly driven around the city spreading the warning. But instead of heeding Mr Giuliani’s advice, the local authorities reported him to police for “spreading alarm” and he was told to remove his findings from the internet.
Even after he was proved right, civic leaders effectively dismissed him as a maverick whose accurate prediction was little more than a fluke. As the row escalated yesterday, the Italian president, Silvio Berlusconi, was among those having to fend off angry questions about whether the area should have been evacuated in the light of the warnings. Maria Francesco, a survivor of the earthquake who lives in L’Aquila, said: “It’s a scandal what’s happened. For the past three months there have been regular tremors, and they’ve been getting stronger and stronger. The authorities were well aware.”
Mr Giuliani, a researcher at the Gran Sasso National Laboratory near L’Aquila, has now demanded an apology over the attempts to gag him. He said: “There are people out there who should be offering me apologies – and whose conscience should bear the full weight of what has happened.” He added: “It is not true to say that earthquakes cannot be predicted. We have been able to predict events for almost ten years in a range of 120-150 kilometres from our detectors.
“In the last three days we saw a large increase of Radon. Large increases of Radon, above safety thresholds, mean strong earthquakes. “Even classic technology could have been used to predict it. My seismograph indicated a strong earthquake and we had it online, everybody could watch it, and many did and realised that the tremors were increasing.”
This story reminds me of Jim Berkland, the California geologist who predicted in the newspapers the 1989 quake in San Francisco one day prior to the event. Suspended from his position and told not to make any more predictions, he resigned.
Radon is 8 times heavier than air. It is unlikely to seep UP. Interesting theory though.
Remember, economists have predicted 24 out of the last three recessions.
Seriously, my point is — what is this guy’s record? Has he predicted earthquakes that didn’t happen? I mean, if every year he predicts an earthquake, and then finally one year one happens, I wouldn’t be too impressed with his predicting powers.
#1. From the EPA:
“Radon detection kits are inexpensive and easy to use. You can purchase a kit at your local hardware store or other retail outlets. Contact your state radon office, local American Lung Association exiting EPA or contact a “qualified” radon professional for more information on where to purchase a test kit.”
Also plans for reducing Radon gas seeping into your home.
http://epa.gov/radon/rrnc/index.html
Radon correlation with fault line earthquakes has been pretty much debunked by seismologists. It has been closely studied in many countries and there is no reputable or consistent argument that it works. This fellow was lucky, for want of a better word.
What did he expect them to do? Evacuate the city?
If he predicted an earthquake for tomorrow and the precise time, and everyone get ready – and his prediction was 5 minutes early – so they all went back inside, and its hits 5 minutes later.
Yep, there is not big example of a Bible Thumper silencing scientists.
This post is fascinating for me because I lived near St. Helens before it blew.
I remember how authorities just couldn’t keep people off that mountain, even though there were multiple signs that it was going to blow big-time.
The body-count would have been MUCH larger if authorities had poo-poo’d the scientists.
# 3 McCullough said, “#1. From the EPA:”
So, what does that link have to do with a gas that is 8X as dense as air, climbing miles up a fault line?
The guy is an idiot.
To all the really brilliant pseudo-scientists.
I have rocks surface in my garden all the time, water comes out of underground bores and oil gushes hundreds of meters into the air when released from the underground pressure. I am pretty sure they are heavier than air.
The guy got it right and I do not think he had ever been arrested before for freaking out about impending doom (and trying to save people’s lives) so why be cynical?
#8. No, I think you are the idiot. Not surprising. It seems the gas can be detected above ground which has been known forever. Did you bother to look at the site and how to protect your home from the “rising gas”…. Maybe the pressure forces it to the surface? But please, as a geologist amongst all your other talents, enlighten me.
LOL.
How certain must a warning be in order to give up your house/home/business? (Italy).
Much different than going to a different vacation destination. (Mnt St Helens).
“You can’t predict earthquakes.” That being the case, should we all move to locations at least 50 miles from any fault line?
So, lets keep the scientists at it and when radon gas plus pre-shock patterns can be reported with the odds of a major quake within X days can be predicted==then reasonable people can determine their risk comfort.
The remainder can continue to follow their favorite sports team or pray.
#10–McCullough==I’ve never paid attention but isn’t the idea of radon detection mostly for basements? Or, leaking out of walls on the way to the floor?
So–Paddy is right that radon is heavy and will sink but also completely wrong about how it can be a precursor to earthquakes and/or detected by above ground instruments.
Paddy-O-Zero==striving with every post to demonstrate that a little knowledge in the wrong hands is pretty much worthless.
#11. Exactly. Let the scientist’s do their job…and the people decide. End of story.
#12. Yes, but it is particularly a problem in mountainous areas where “pressure” and hot springs are prevalent.
I also like the work of the above named geologist who uses many factors including tide changes and the random disappearance of pets as a precursor to an earthquake event.
It’s a science…interesting, compelling, and maybe to be proven at some point.
I will tell you if we had known that an attack was coming against the United States, that an attack was coming against New York and Washington, we would have moved heaven and earth to stop it.
— Condoleeza Rice
Mr. Clarke writes you a memo on September the 4th, where he lays out his frustration that the military is not doing enough, that the CIA is not pushing as hard enough in their agency. And he says we should not wait until the day that hundreds of Americans lay dead in the streets due to a terrorist attack and we think there could have been something more we could do.
ROEMER: Seven days prior to September the 11, he writes this to you.
Source: CNN.COM
# 10 McCullough said, “Did you bother to look at the site and how to protect your home from the “rising gas””
It primarily collects in basements from surrounding soil/rock. NOT from seeping UP from MILES down. Idiot. Study some geology.
#16:
It typically moves up through the ground to the air above and into your home through cracks and other holes in the foundation.
http://epa.gov/radon/pubs/citguide.html
#16. Gee really? That’s the best you got??? My 14 year old nephew could clean your clock.
Har!
#10, McCullough
Cow-Patty now a geologist?
Shit, how can I add that to his header, …
🙁
#19. Looking forward to that.
# 18 McCullough said, “Gee really? That’s the best you got”
That’s all I need. Do you have verified data showing radon is being pushed up from miles down into houses?
Thought not. I can imagine what your nephew cleans for you. LOL
More on the subject in “Science”: http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/04/more-on-quake-r.html