 Peter Nicholson
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A new survey finds consensus among scientists about the reality of climate change and its likely cause. A group of 3,146 earth scientists surveyed around the world overwhelmingly agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising, and that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.
In trying to overcome criticism of earlier attempts to gauge the view of earth scientists on global warming and the human impact factor, Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman sought the opinion of the most complete list of earth scientists they could find, contacting more than 10,200 experts around the world listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute’s Directory of Geoscience Departments.
Questions used were reviewed by a polling expert who checked for bias in phrasing, such as suggesting an answer by the way a question was worded. The nine-question survey was short, taking just a few minutes to complete.
Two questions were key: have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures.
About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.
In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role.
Doran and Kendall Zimmerman conclude that “the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.”
Not that skeptics will care. Anti-intellectualism, anti-science convictions reflect hangups ranging from creationism to the good old favorite – “Al Gore said it and I hate his suits”.
So many climate experts on DU! I’m honored to be in such esteemed company.
I sure your kids will be thrilled that their future may well depend on your expert assessments.
MikeN, Gore claimed credit when all he did was support something others did. Not bad but claiming to be father of net was major hyperbole. He has a gift for it.
Climate changes. Climate has always changed. Climate will continue to change. It can and has changed very fast on occasion. When that happens people die. Empires fall.
I’m satisfied that CO2 levels are causing problems for some forms of sea life.
How it plays in climate change is harder to understand. The last claim I read today was that Anarctica is getting warmer. Yes Sir the mean temp is now all the way up to -58 degrees. Sounds like a regular heat wave.
If you ask somebody if adding CO2 to the air will warm the planet the answer is yes. How much what we have added will change the temp is a wild guess. They’re modals are so good they’v been off by at least 5 to 10 degrees to warm every day for at least a month where I live.
I’ve been told that at times in the past the atmosphere had as much as 2,000 times as much CO2 as it does now. The artic was temperate then and they claim a fraction as much will make it temperate now. I don’t think they have much of a clue.
The Boogeyman is gonna’ get ya unless you [-insert formula/obedience/lifestyle/affiliation here-]!!!
When hippos are once again able to re-populate the Thames, we ought to be getting to a more normal climate right?
I like how they’re so desperate to validate Global Warming, that they stoop to an opinion poll as proof! I’ll bet, right now I could take an opinion poll asking if George Bush was a War Criminal. And selecting skew the sampling to get an overwhelming YES percentage. Does that mean we should expect him to stand trial soon? Forget it. It ain’t going to happen. But the point is, what science usually labels as anecdotal evidence, when it based on peoples off the cuff opinion (and not unbiased test data). They turn around and embrace as proof enough to waste billions of dollars in public funds on. To me it’s like two flees on the back of an elephant. Arguing which course they should set for the beast’s day trip. As if they could have the slightest effect at all. Well the insect population of the earth far outnumber us humans. And probably have more of an impact on the earth than we do. But they don’t poll entomologists about their consensus of that!
I’ve noted that part of the G.W. advocates’ solution to the problem is to keep the 3rd world countries, like South Africa, right where they are as under-developed. Don’t let them ever acquire RELIABLE electric power from sources like coal or oil. Forget Wind, Solar. It barely works in countries with coal and oil, to fall back on. How’s it to work for these countries as their sole source of power. It’s a joke, and the scientists proposing it, know it is. But it’ll serve to keep these nations “in the dark” so to speak, for decades longer. And they’re labor costs will also be maintained cheap, for outsourcing industry.
Set them onto the road of industrial development. And just like the rest of us, they’ll eventually want to be paid better, and have an improved standard of living. Keep them in the dark, with crude power generation. And they’re too starving and ignorant to know better. That seems to be what this G.W. scare is really all about. And conveniently timed, as I’m sure it’s getting tougher to come up with reasons why the rest of the world should remain so backward.
What a bunch of useless crap!
I read 60 or so comments and found nothing worth the effort, with the possible exception of some interesting new info from dusan, and the folks who pointed out the obvious fact that we can barely feed the six billion on the planet now.
90% of responders deny simply for political reasons — “Dang hippie longhair eggheads!”
Also about 90% (not necessarily the same 90%) feel it’s all just made up to inconvenience them personally.
The top arguments so far:
* It didn’t predict when I broke my toe last year, so it’s junk.
* When their models don’t agree with observation, they tweak the models!
(Of course they tweak their models! Who wants models that don’t work?)
* [Someone, usually someone whose name ends with an “o”] is a poopyhead and eats shit.
(Predominant topic in the comments section on almost every news story on this blog.)
* Flawed. Needs more study.
(Bush 43’s response to every treaty the U.S. ever signed.)
* What difference does it make?
(Remember how suddenly food cost twice as much as it had just a few years before? It has gone back down a little now, but imagine that happening year after year after year after year. Imagine six billion hungry people, some with access to weapons, and some with access to even MORE weapons…)
* The person who called me a poopyhead is a nimrod and should eat bugs.
———-
You know, there was a time when I used to read the comments on this blog in hopes of learning something. Was I dreaming? Or am I just cranky today?
#72–Uncle==to fill it in a bit more:
“* When their models don’t agree with observation, they tweak the models!
(Of course they tweak their models! Who wants models that don’t work?) /// Thats the whole point==THE MODEL doesn’t work so they tweak it to make it work AND THEN they claim it works. That kind of backfilling gives no confidence.
“Al Gore said it and I hate his suits”.
Oh, thank you. Now I have a reasonable motive for this loonies. I was always thinking what it is that drives them.
# 72 Uncle Patso said, “You know, there was a time when I used to read the comments on this blog in hopes of learning something.”
I am happy that you know more about this subject than an atmospheric physicist. ROFL. Go away troll.
#64, Cow-Paddy,
You are getting much better. As pointed out above though, the Climate Change deniers are almost all in the pocket of big oil.
http://tinyurl.com/2k4p8o
Singer is the President of SEPP.
http://tinyurl.com/2kqysb
I’ve noticed that Tinyurl works whereas embedded links get caught in the spam filter.
paddytwat,
back from school so early?
you know just as little
# 76 Mr. Fusion said, “You are getting much better. As pointed out above though, the Climate Change deniers are almost all in the pocket of big oil.”
Too funny, you should read up on what Patrick Moore, founder of Greenpeace has to say about the enviro nuts and who infiltrated them, long ago, and why THEY are responsible for us still using fossil fuel.
You should research. Although, when you get the data you’ll probably die of embarrassment.
Anyway. Please ignore ANY scientist who receives gov or University grants as they are shill for the politically correct forces. Who do we then have left?
Give me a link when you have the data… I’ll wait…
# 77 jimbo said, “I am obsessed with Paddy-o and lacking any intelligence can only post in response to him.”
I don’t need to prove intelligence to an incompetent fool like you, and I post in response to you because you claim to know more than everyone else on EVERY subject.
It’s a natural response to annoy someone who acts the ass 24/7
I also notice you don’t post on anything you haven’t seen on tv…
Great intelligence begins with the smallest atom paddy-0…shame it skipped you out
# 80 jimbo said, “I don’t need to prove intelligence”
Yes, I know what the nice doctors told you. So, anything to add to the global warming debate, or are you just obsessing over me?
#75, Cow-Paddy,
I am happy that you know more about this subject than an atmospheric physicist. ROFL. Go away troll.
No where in Uncle Patso’s post did he claim to know more than a scientist studying climate change. Yet, you now claim he is a troll.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
yes….”nice doctors”…haven’t heard the “you’re mad” comeback before….well not since high school…
I find global warming to be out of all of our hands, inane and therefore pointless to discuss with someone who acts the scientist but isn’t one.
I will continue to annoy whilst you continue to spout nonsense…
You never did come up with proof for your claim of urban combat operations experience, but I guess you’ll avoid it again this time too.
#78, Cow-Paddy,
Anyway. Please ignore ANY scientist who receives gov or University grants as they are shill for the politically correct forces.
Do you have any proof that the “gov” or “University” (which one I don’t know) are biased. Please link to this silly claim.
… you should read up on what Patrick Moore, founder of Greenpeace has to say …
I’ve met Patrick Moore. I didn’t like him then, I don’t know why I should start now. If, however, you are using him as an expert, then why don’t you quote him instead of dropping his name like some asshole. Oopps, OK, now I get why you dropped his name.
hmmm, I think wikipedia must have frozen on Paddy-o…Oh well, no proof for us i guess.
Losing credibility Paddy
“Give me a link when you have the data… I’ll wait…”
hmmm, I think wikipedia must have frozen on Paddy-o…Oh well, no proof for us i guess.
Losing credibility Paddy
#78 “Give me a link when you have the data… I’ll wait…”
# 84 jimbo said, “I find global warming to be out of all of our hands, inane and therefore pointless to discuss”
Then quit trolling the thread.
Of course Global Warming is man-made. Men invented the idea. Men created the temperature measuring devices. Men repainted their containers with different paint that retains much more heat. Men ignored the fact that many temperature stations are now within (or much ,much nearer to) urban areas, asphalt, etc. Men make huge (and often incorrect) inferences from a single photo of a polar bear on an ice floe. Men are flawed.
So why is it so hard to believe that Men created global warming? Heck, if you look hard enough, you could probably find a consensus that men created the tides, too.
i’m trolling the thread because you are a liar and can’t admit it.
God damn fool
# 89 jimbo said, “i’m trolling the thread”
Yes, I established that fact already…
Hrmm, survey of 3,146 that say it’s kinda so vs petition of tens of thousands that says it aint. Mark twain said it best, there are three kinds of lies in this world, Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
I wonder if any of those 3146 scientists had anything to do with deciding where to locate the temperature measuring equipment?
http://tinyurl.com/azuzcx
# 42 amodedoma said, “Paddy O, yeah I know, but our ancestors didn’t live in our society, did they?”
No, their highest technology consisted of stone knives and bear skins. We currently posses much more technology to adapt our environment to what we need.
take that nay sayers
Wow, now scientific fact is being established by polling. It’s a lot cheaper than research.