This is why pundits should be more careful about making predictions. It’s easier than ever to check back on them.

Here’s a couple of the Top Ten from Foreign Policy magazine:

#1 – “If [Hillary Clinton] gets a race against John Edwards and Barack Obama, she’s going to be the nominee. Gore is the only threat to her, then. … Barack Obama is not going to beat Hillary Clinton in a single Democratic primary. I’ll predict that right now.” —William Kristol, Fox News Sunday, Dec. 17, 2006

Weekly Standard editor and New York Times columnist William Kristol was hardly alone in thinking that the Democratic primary was Clinton’s to lose, but it takes a special kind of self-confidence to make a declaration this sweeping more than a year before the first Iowa caucus was held. After Iowa, Kristol lurched to the other extreme, declaring that Clinton would lose New Hampshire and that “There will be no Clinton Restoration.” It’s also worth pointing out that this second wildly premature prediction was made in a Times column titled, “President Mike Huckabee?” The Times is currently rumored to be looking for his replacement.


#4 – “[A]nyone who says we’re in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of ‘recession.’” —Donald Luskin, The Washington Post, Sept. 14, 2008

The day after Luskin’s op-ed, “Quit Doling Out That Bad-Economy Line,” appeared in the Post, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, and the rest is history. Liberal bloggers had long ago dubbed the Trend Macrolytics chief investment officer and informal McCain advisor “the Stupidest Man Alive.” This time, they had some particularly damning evidence.

Click the link up top and enjoy the rest.




  1. chris says:

    Although we’re in a ‘recession’ – Luskin is partially right. People talk abotu how bad things are and yet they’re still talking on their cell phones, eating out, etc. For anyone to even compare what is going on now to the Great Depression is absolutely laughable.

  2. Mr. Fusion says:

    #1, chris,

    Around these parts, roughly 10 to 15% have lost their jobs. They aren’t talking on their cell phones, or eating out, or buying gas, or shopping for Christmas. For many, the biggest reason they aren’t sleeping under the stars is the Sheriff refuses to deliver the eviction notices.

    Very true, many have a spouse still working. In too many cases though that is less than half the income before Bush did his number on the economy.

  3. Mr. Fusion says:

    For the predictions,

    Some appear to be more wishful thinking than actually based upon anything. Others are just stupid.

    Looking for Kristol’s replacement? Can’t come quick enough. He is too FOXinized to be reputable.

  4. Mr Diesel says:

    And once again we hear from the Bush Derangement syndrome crowd…..

  5. Paddy-O says:

    # 4 Mr Diesel said, “And once again we hear from the Bush Derangement syndrome crowd…..”

    I know. These guys don’t realize that we could have had NO gov’t actions over the last 8 years and the financial meltdown would have still happened.

  6. Sea Lawyer says:

    If you can influence expectations, you can influence the economy. These people who have been declaring to the public how bad things are for the past few years are just as dangerous as the Pollyannas who swear nothing can ever go wrong.

  7. Mr. Fusion says:

    #5, Cow-Paddy, Ignorant Shit Talking Sociopath and Retired Mall Rent-A-Cop,

    These guys don’t realize that we could have had NO gov’t actions over the last 8 years and the financial meltdown would have still happened.

    Only it would have taken two or three times as long.

  8. Paddy-O says:

    # 8 Mr. Fusion said, “Only it would have taken two or three times as long.”

    Nope. The banking industry (Fed included) has been heading for a crash for decades. A year or two either way is all that would have happened.

    Obama won’t restructure the Fed & banking infrastructure either. Politicians are in control of it.

  9. ElephantBoy says:

    How come Dvorak’s prediction that McCain would win did not show up on this list?

  10. Mr. Fusion says:

    #9, Cow-Paddy, Ignorant Shit Talking Sociopath and Retired Mall Rent-A-Cop,

    So now you are predicting what Obama will or won’t do. We can look forward to seeing your name on this list next year.

    How has the banking industry been heading for a crash for decades? Since the Fed and later the FDIC, SEC, and other regulatory agencies been put in place, the whole financial sector has run fairly smoothly. It has been since Bush took his economic philosophy to Washington that the shit hit the fan.

    This didn’t happen under Roosevelt, or Truman, or Kennedy, or Johnson, or Carter, or Clinton. It did happen under Hoover, Reagan and now under Bush. Maybe because the two Presidents most in favor of NOT regulating and keeping oversight are the ones that had the crashes on their watch.

  11. Paddy-O says:

    # 11 Mr. Fusion said, “So now you are predicting what Obama will or won’t do.”

    I can tell when the truth starts to hurt you.

    Anyway. No, Obama will not try to gain control of the Fed and eliminate it & the corrupt banking system.

    Obama knows what happened when Executive Order 11110 was attempted.

  12. pcsmith says:

    You can’t call this one a bonk yet.

    #7-There is a real possibility of creating destructive theoretical anomalies such as miniature black holes, strangelets and deSitter space transitions.

    The collider never got up to speed and is currently under repair.

  13. MikeN says:

    No it happened because for two decades they’ve been pushing housing for poor people, and started cajoling banks to do more.

  14. BillM says:

    Where is YoMammas prediction that the increase in troops in Iraq would not result in reduction in violence?

  15. ECA says:

    Im sorry #1..
    The recession has been going on sence about 1999..
    The only difference is the Percentages.
    1. the Diff. in wages from the bottom to the top.
    2. the diff. of wages compared to OTHER NATIONS, for those on top.(USA CEO makes over >100 TIMES foreign CEO’s) Think about the profit difference..
    3. the OLD style Business plan, was BASED on the idea that the TOP took its wages from the PROFITS, not wages/benefits/air planes..

    Lets do a few numbers..
    Candy bars and theater tickets..
    ALL have gone up 10 times in the past 30 years.
    WAGES?? HAVE NOT gone up 10 times..
    Cup of CHEAP coffee, 30 years ago, was $0.10 and ALL you could drink(mostly)…NOW start at $1 per cup, and GO UP..
    When the lower levels are making $15-20 per hour..and the TOP people are making $40-50 THEN we can talk.

  16. Paddy-O says:

    # 16 ECA said, “Lets do a few numbers..”

    What else do you expect from hyper monetary inflation caused by a inherently corrupt & unconstitutional National banking system?

  17. ECA says:

    what do I expect from a banking system that THINKS money is EVERYTHING..
    Banks should be investing there money in GOODS and services..NOT holding on to it..

  18. Paddy-O says:

    # 18 ECA said, “what do I expect from a banking system that THINKS money is EVERYTHING..”

    Umm, where does the Fed get money?

  19. Mister Mustard says:

    #12 – Paddy-RAMBO

    >>Obama knows what happened when Executive Order
    >>11110 was attempted.

    Oooh yeah! Wasn’t that when the evil snipers of the banking industry hired Lee Harvey Oswald to gun down Kennedy in cold blood? Then hired Jack Ruby to kill Oswald? And then hired a clandestine pathophysiologist to induce cancer in Jack Ruby?

    Yep, Obama’s a smart guy. He won’t open that can of worms.

  20. Wretched Gnu says:

    William Kristol is the poster-boy for wrong predictions about national and global events. If he says one thing, the reality always turns out to be the opposite.

  21. jealousmonk says:

    Here’s hoping Bill Kristol dies so they can name the life-time achievement award for bad predictions after him.

  22. Sean O'Hara says:

    Surely someone’s been taking notes on No Agenda, Cranky Geeks, and TWIT and can put together a Top 10 list for Dvorak predictions.

  23. Mr. Fusion says:

    #12, Cow-Paddy, Ignorant Shit Talking Sociopath and Retired Mall Rent-A-Cop,

    Anyway. No, Obama will not try to gain control of the Fed and eliminate it & the corrupt banking system.

    Still making predictions.

    Point of fact, the problem here wasn’t the Fed. It was the oversight agencies that allowed the Banks to get mired in bad mortgages without proper oversight. Then when Bush allowed the rest of the economy to fail, the whole house of cards came tumbling down.

  24. optimist says:

    >># 13 pcsmith
    >>The collider never got up to speed and is >>currently under repair.

    Then I guess there is still hope.

  25. Paddy-O says:

    # 24 Mr. Fusion said, “Still making predictions. ”

    Yes, Mr ConFusion, just as yesterday am I told you the auto bailout was DOA in the Senate and you protested that it was alive & well.

    For a small fee I can replace your faulty news sources. I only charge $1,500 per question asked.

  26. James Hill says:

    Meanwhile, no one has equated the job losses to punishment for not voting for the right.

    If you’re going to hype the right being about business, you’ve got to go all the way with it.

    #23 – He’d have to get 10 right in a year to do a 10 best list.


0

Bad Behavior has blocked 11535 access attempts in the last 7 days.