Turnout made the difference. Historically, black Californians have voted in about the same proportion as their population, in the 6 percent to 7 percent range, while Latinos, although more than a third of the state’s population, have been about 13 percent of voters.
Last week, however, 10 percent of voters were African American while 18 percent were Latino, and applying exit poll data to that extra turnout reveals that the pro-Obama surge among those two groups gave Proposition 8 an extra 500,000-plus votes, slightly more than the measure’s margin of victory.
To put it another way, had Obama not been so popular and had voter turnout been more traditional – meaning the proportion of white voters had been higher – chances are fairly strong that Proposition 8 would have failed.
The outcome should not have been so surprising since Obama made it clear during the campaign that while he supported civil unions, he did not favor gay marriage.
Popularity has many snares and no real benefits. I guess marriage can be that way. Look at the divorce rate.
Oh dear…I guess the people have spoken! Sucks doesn’t it??
TOBG This Oughta Be Good.
Who would have thought that black voters would object to having the lack of ‘gay marriage’ be compared to the discrimination suffered by blacks?
Nate Silver over at 538 has a more considered view – “At the end of the day, Prop 8’s passage was more a generational matter than a racial one.”
# 5 I said, “Nate Silver over at 538 has a more considered view – “At the end of the day, Prop 8’s passage was more a generational matter than a racial one.””
Except objective data on the election in CA doesn’t support that “view”.
Put anyone or, anything on a ballot…just don’t be shocked by the outcome. Sheeple are an untrustworthy, unpredictable constituency. Welcome to democracy gays, it screws us all over equally eventually.
Dan Savage was on Colbert the other night. He said that when you sliced the data by age group, it was defeated by older voters (I think he referenced 50+ yrs old, but my memory is faulty in my dotage). I’ve also read that younger evangelicals are less exercised than their elders by gay marriage, which correlates with what Savage said.
I can’t stop ROFL!
#6 “Except objective data on the election in CA doesn’t support that “view”.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1 supports it.
What data are you talking about?
Yup, yup. The fracking churches and their bucks had nothing to do with it.
Change the subject. It all goes away.
#10 – I Said
>>What data are you talking about?
He’s talking about the same data he’s always talking about. The stuff he makes up inside his head to support whatever cockamamie point he’s trying to make.
Please note that Paddy-RAMBO almost NEVER posts a link to support his reporting of “objective data”.
He just makes this stuff up out of whole cloth. He figures few will check up on him, and if he repeats something over and over and over again, it will seem true.
# 10 I said, “http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1 supports it.
What data are you talking about?”
What % of black voter supported prop 8 as compared to what % of whites?
#13 – Paddy-RAMBO
>>What % of black voter supported prop 8 as compared
>>to what % of whites?
So what’s your point here, Paddy-RAMBO? That old black guys like to do it on the “down low” and keep it on the QT, while young white guys are more likely to publicly support equality? The relationship between age and support of Prop 8 is unequivocal.
How many ways can you split this hair?
So when will see the gay mafia protesting in the streets of Compton, Inglewood, Watts? Oh, that’s right, they can’t afford to not be politically correct toward other minorities. I also don’t think black americans appreciate having their skin color and all the suffering that followed because of skin pigmentation compared to a group of people who are whining because 100% of society will not agree with where THEY chose to park their wanker.
So when will we see the gay mafia protesting in the streets of Compton, Inglewood, Watts? Oh, that’s right, they can’t afford to not be politically correct toward other minorities. I also don’t think black americans appreciate having their skin color and all the suffering that followed because of skin pigmentation compared to a group of people who are whining because 100% of society will not agree with where THEY chose to park their wanker.
There lies, damn lies and statistics. It is difficult to isolate the causes when there was a general increase in voter turnout among blacks and latinos and thus an increase in turnout of older voters that were black or latino. What is not stated is the increase by age by race from the mean turnout of previous elections.
So the data is, that blacks in CA voted yes on 8 by around 70%.
There was a large increase in black voters going to the polls due to Obama (who opposes gay marriage).
This margin was enough to cause Prop 8 to pass.
Without Obama running this year Prop 8 most likely would have failed.
Question:
How many on this blog are now going to publicly call out Obama for being a homophobic, rights stealing bigot?
I’ll count at the end of the day and announce who the hypocrites are by their absence.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/prop-8-myths.html
“But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly.”
The Sacramento Bee and Nate Silver provide two different views of what I imagine is the same data.
Paddy O are you asking a question or pointing out something in the data I provided or are you going to provide data of your own?
#18 – Paddy-RAMBO
>>How many on this blog are now going to publicly call
>>out Obama for being a homophobic, rights stealing
>>bigot?
Why on earth would we do that, because a bunch of people from Watts and Compton who supported Obama also supported discrimination against gays?
You may think Obama is the Messiah, but even HE cannot control how his supporters vote on every issue.
#16 – FedUp
>>whining because 100% of society will not agree with
>>where THEY chose to park their wanker.
No one’s asking for 100% agreement on the wanker parking, son.
All they’re asking for is to be left the fuck alone to do what they want to do. Not an unreasonable request, given that what they want to do has ABSOLUTELY NO IMPACT on those who don’t want to do it.
Waiting. Obama opposes gay marriage. Where is the vitriol against Obama that is aimed at others for the same EXACT stance? …
The spirit of resistance to government is so valuable on certain occasions that I wish it to be always kept alive.
Thomas Jefferson
Where there’s power, there’s resistance. It’s chaos in California. Hollywood could melt down faster than Wall Street and people are all worried about somebody else or some bullshit that really does not matter. What’s the state debt? $10 billion+ or something…Good luck guys.
Doomed California! Depressing.
SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 11 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — From 10:30am-11:30am, card-carrying veterans visiting St. Anthony Foundation will receive a special gift of chocolate, energy bars, rain ponchos, and tea. While many may be categorically eligible for the VA housing loans which will be made available through Veterans’ Bond Act of 2008 (S.B. 1572, which was passed on Novembers ballot), the reality of the mental health challenges and addictions which afflict many homeless veterans make qualifying for the housing loans difficult. Veterans Day is one of St. Anthony Dining Rooms busiest days of the year.
Billions of dollars for failed investment bankers, screwball mortgage scammers & the rest of them and homeless veterans get shafted by official Washington. You get a rain poncho, tea and energy bars. You can’t qualify for housing loans. They only have $700 billion to give away to save some brokers house up in the Hamptons because he has juice and a lobbyist buddy in Washington.
#22 – Paddy-RAMBO
>>Waiting
Oh, fer chrissakes, RAMBO. Obama’s an asshole for saying that, but wtf do you expect? He’s a politician, and saying he’s against gay “marriage” was the politically expedient thing to do.
He does, however, favor giving all the rights and responsibilities of “marriage” to gay couples, and making up some kind of new name for it (can’t use “civil union”, because those already exist, and they are a sorry shadow of a “marriage”) to placate the hatemongers.
He’s a darned sight better than McBush would have ever been, and he’s light-years ahead of Dumbya.
When you find a politician that you agree with 100% of the time, let us know, won’t you?
Having gay, african american friends sure helps. I asked them wtf happened and ALL of them gave me one simple answer: Many in the black community believe that homosexuality is a white man’s thing.
And living in a Latinamerican nation also gives me a simple answer as to why many voted against same-sex marriage up there: The vast majority of the hispanics are very religious, often as rabid as the average Southern Baptist. Sure they support the Democrats because they’re the ones not calling them job stealing parasites but if the Republicans promise them that they would never have to treat gay & lesbians as equals they will blindly vote for that conservative candidate even if that means spending the rest of their lives living inside a cardboard box on the sidewalk.
So you admit Obama is a liar?
#26 MikeN, The silence is deafening, isn’t it?
The funny part is how the No On 8 group turned in to a hate group.
Homosexual behavior is wrong. Gays know that it is wrong. They want gay marriage recognized by society so that they will feel better about themselves. By having society “say” that it is OK then they will have vindication that their sexual behavior is Ok. I don’t believe for a second that homosexual behavior is a choice. Who actually believes that a man would choose Barney Frank’s ass over Sarah Palin’s ass? It’s a congenital abnormality just as downs syndrome or any other congenitial malformality. I couldn’t care less about who someone decides to sleep with. The majority of California’s (Arizonan’s and Floridian’s as well) voted against the recognition of gay marriage because we know the end game which is total acceptance of a sexual behavior by all including the teaching in schools of the homosexual lifestyle which is already underway. Here in Ca, a bay area kindergarten teacher had 5-6 yr old children signing statements that they would support the gay/transgender lifestyle and speak up for any gay or lesbian/transgendered student if they witnessed any harassment of such a student. This a kindergarten class!!! This before Prop 8 passed. What do you think will happen in public schools if Prop 8 had failed?
Flawed analysis.
No, the increased black/latino vote did not get prop 8 passed.
Nice try, though.