Obama victory offers hope to Iran

It has taken nearly two days to emerge, but the message of congratulations from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to US President-elect Barack Obama is almost certainly unprecedented since the Islamic Revolution.

Iran and the United States are more used to trading insults – the “Axis of Evil” versus the “Great Satan”.

So this message seems to open intriguing possibilities in US-Iranian relations.

You might have not guessed it from his rhetoric, but it is widely believed in Tehran that President Ahmadinejad is keen for some sort of reconciliation with the US.

This poses a big dilemma for Mr Obama’s new foreign policy team.

During the presidential election campaign, Mr Obama offered to talk with Iran without preconditions.

But any improvement in US-Iranian relations could hand a big prize to Mr Ahmadinejad, as he runs for re-election next summer.

It is something to distract Iranians from the disastrous state of their country’s economy and public finances, as crashing oil prices compound years of mismanagement.

Israel, on the other hand, is not exactly thrilled with Obama’s willingness to talk to Iran. Was Obama just playing to the crowd when he said he might not be so friendly to Iran?




  1. Paddy-O says:

    Who knows. Here’s more from another great statesman:

    “Chavez joined other left-wing Latin American leaders in calling President-elect Barack Obama’s election historic.”

    “The historical election of an Afro-American to lead the most powerful country in the world is a sign that the changing times which originated in South America could be knocking the doors of United States,” he said in a statement.”

    I guess these neo-dictators see a kindred spirit in Obama

  2. Ah_Yea says:

    I hope Obama gets Colin Powell in there, and then let’s him do his job. Powell should be reasonable but is seasoned enough not to be taken for a ride.

    Iran’s got an agenda to become the superpower of the Middle East, and they have used every tactic in the book to get there.

    No reason to believe this is going to change anytime soon.

  3. James Hill says:

    I’m going to take a wild guess that regardless of public message, most of these crackpots think its going to be business as usual.

    Guess what? They’re right.

  4. zorkor says:

    Obama is not a sign of hope only to Iran but the rest of the world too. Everyone is sick and tired of previous US govts threats and bullying to other nations. Lets see what Obama does regarding world issues. With war you can temporarily make your enemies surrender but in the long run, the same enemy can come back to bite you again whenever it gets the chance.

  5. Jack says:

    Wait I though US policy was “shot first ask questions never.”

  6. brian t says:

    The USA, and therefore Obama, will have to deal with Iran effectively at some point. This is a country where there’s a major disconnect between the Islamist nutters in charge, and the 70 million ordinary people who live there. This is more than the UK or France, it’s not some little Banana Republic that the Economic Hit Men can push around. IMHO there’s genuine potential for getting the people on the side of democracy, regardless of what the “leaders” say or do.

  7. Deep-Thought says:

    > Israel, on the other hand, is not exactly thrilled
    > with Obama’s willingness to talk to Iran.

    What do they fear? Peace?

    I think it is time for some change there. Iran is fairly unagressive and even somewhat democratic. All in all far from the evil image they have in the US.
    Sure, they have problems with the influence of religious leaders in the state.
    But Ahmadinejad for example is democraticly elected (no evil dictator!).

    And all that wiping Israel from the map FUD is nonsense.
    They sound in my eyes not more radical than Israel itself.
    They don’t trust each other, but why should they?

  8. Paddy-O says:

    #7 “But Ahmadinejad for example is democraticly elected (no evil dictator!).”

    LOL!

    To the people of Iran from the Religious dictators, “Here is your approved list of candidates to vote for…”

    ROFL

  9. Guyver says:

    Well how would you expect him to respond when the U.S. just elected someone whose father is/was a Muslim and that he’d be willing to talk to Ahmadinejad with no preconditions. That’s certainly a message of hope for all…. right? 🙂

  10. Thomas says:

    #4
    Ah, the kumbayah foreign policy method. That has worked so well in the past (not).

    #7
    If Iran genuinely wanted peace and did not want to wipe Israel off the map as they have publicly said in the past few years, I bet Israel would be all for it. The problem is that nobody believes Iran. Iran has made it clear through their public statements and their funding of terrorism that they want to exterminate the Israelis and if they get nuclear weapons there is a real threat that they’ll try it.

    The question is whether Obama will be a modern day Chamberlain or Churchill. Will he try to appease the wing nuts in Iran or will he recognize their threat and be unyielding. Will he learn from the failures of Clinton and Carter with respect to negotiating with terrorists or not?

  11. Mark Derail. says:

    Definately talk to them and open relations.

    After all, US & Iran are now officially neighbors.

    Times have changed, and if Iran wants to be submissive, why not? Iran has much to gain from being friends of US and Israël.

  12. Guyver says:

    10, He’ll be another Chamberlain who will rationalize Iran’s hostilities away like any good liberal would citing that Iran is just misunderstood.

  13. Dallas says:

    A SIGNIFICANT opportunity for Obama to assert influence in Iranian behavior now and because of the upcoming Iranian elections.

    Now that Ahmadinejad will no longer will have Bush or a schmuck GOP as a way to deflect his failed presidency, he will have to change behavior. A popular Obama is Ahmadinejad’s worse nightmare scenario.

    I would not be surprised if Obama’s incredible statesmanship and his ability to connect with the Iranian people would be enough to topple that whole miserable government.

  14. Paddy-O says:

    #13 Dallas said, “would not be surprised if Obama’s incredible statesmanship and his ability to connect with the Iranian people would be enough to topple that whole miserable government.”

    That would be great, and very bloody.

  15. Guyver says:

    So which Obama are we to believe? LOL

  16. Olo Baggins of Bywater says:

    Paddy…just like Reagan’s statesmanship toppled the Soviet government? Real bloody, that one.

    Those things end up bloody no matter what. Diff is, in Iraq it’s a lot of our blood. End result is the same.

    History shows again and again that diplomacy works. Carrying a big sword around does too, but at a very high price. We’ll be paying that price for a while, unless Obama can heal some wounds. (Don’t even bother with Chamberlain, that’s an extreme example.)

    And IMHO the way to squash nutjobs like Adminawhatever in Iran and Chavez (Castro, too) is to bring them in the tent…let their people see that we are honorable and their leader may not be. Then local things take care of themselves.

    BTW, being hostile with Cuba in 2008 is just stupid…if we opened relations with them their government would crumble in a matter of months, maybe weeks. We need a new growth market right now, so why not??? LOL

  17. Paddy-O says:

    #16 “History shows again and again that diplomacy works. Carrying a big sword around does too, but at a very high price.”

    No. See Barbary States & US. Germany 1938, and many others.

    Nice try but, false platitudes are no substitute for intelligence.

  18. Olo Baggins of Bywater says:

    Paddy, what is your substitute for intelligence?

  19. Phydeau says:

    Ah… I see sour grapes are on the menu for our resident right-wing wackos.

    Enjoy!

  20. Carcarius says:

    Isn’t anyone else tired with the USA policing the whole world? A good portion of our tax dollars are going overseas to assist other countries that apparently have no understanding of personal responsibility and self-governance. I guess we can say the same for our own country…

    If we want to prevent an increase in taxes from anyone in this country we need to stop spending money overseas for this and that program or war. The money has to come from somewhere. If we are going to raise taxes, it may as well come predominantly from the 1-10% richest Americans.

  21. Paddy-O says:

    # 20 Carcarius said, “Isn’t anyone else tired with the USA policing the whole world?”

    If I had my way we’d be done to a Navy/Marine Corps & only Nat Guard for AF & Army.

    Other than making sure someone doesn’t nuke us, letting the rest of the world sort themselves out.

  22. gquaglia says:

    I would not be surprised if Obama’s incredible statesmanship and his ability to connect with the Iranian people would be enough to topple that whole miserable government.

    What color is the sky in your world. What are you basing Obama’s incredible statesmanship on? Please stop pulling stupid comments out of your ass. Next you’re going to tell me that Obama can un-sour milk and turn lead into gold. Please remember that this election was about this countries displeasure with Bush and by extension, Republicans. The Dems could have run a ham sandwich up against McCain and the sandwich would have still won.

  23. Brian says:

    I find it interesting that the typical right-wing, neocon response to hide their heads in the sand.

    Look, we must engage our enemies as well as our allies in conversation. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away.

    ‘Kindred spirit’? What a fucking ridiculous statement. Perhaps they see someone who won’t shoot first then never ask questions later, a la the Bush method.

    We’ve ignored and tried to bully our enemies for a long time, and how has that worked out? Iran still is a threat (even more so without Saddam to keep them in check), so its definitely time to try something new.

    I welcome the change, and welcome the idea of actually speaking *to* other leaders of the world, instead of *at* them which is what the Bush regime has done for the past 8 years.

  24. sargasso says:

    Ya walk the walk,
    Ya talk the talk.

  25. Paddy-O says:

    Just watched Obama’s press conference. Pretty underwhelming. Nothing of substance was said. Reporters at conference were basically (except maybe 2) useless and should be fired.

    Prediction: Nothing reassuring was stated and market will continue to languish…

  26. Olo Baggins of Bywater says:

    If any of you haven’t read the ginormous Newsweek 7-part article about the campaign, do so when you have a few hours.

    One part was probably written because it is new…Obama plays the role of a professor in discussions among his advisors…he doesn’t tell everyone what he wants them to tell him right up front, which is what GWB did with all his MBA experience. He keeps his thoughts to himself until he hears everyone in the room, and apparently he works hard to make sure he hears from everyone. The GWB/MBA approach is fine when you’re running a company, a disaster when running a government.

    It’s been a while since we’ve had a president like that.

  27. hhopper says:

    Looks like the market took a dive after the press conference.

  28. Olo Baggins of Bywater says:

    Well, it was nice to hear someone with “President” (of the USA) in their official title speak with intelligence, and sentences complete with grammar. That make sense.

    Boy, this is going to be different.

  29. Paddy-O says:

    # 29 hhopper said, “Looks like the market took a dive after the press conference.”

    As I predicted after listening to the press conference.

  30. James Hill says:

    Clearly, news on his daughter’s allergies does not impress Wall Street.


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