Don’t be cynical enough to believe this article. We know that God and guts won’t let the United States down, don’t we? There will be plenty of oil to consume.
The oil price will shoot back through $100 a barrel as soon as economic conditions return to normal, and will break through $200 threshold by 2030, say officials at the International Energy Agency.
“While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over,” says the IEA in the World Energy Outlook report, obtained by the Financial Times ahead of its release next week.
Oil prices have endured a rollercoaster ride this year during some of the most volatile trading on record. Crude climbed relentlessly from $96 a barrel in January to a record $147 by mid-July, spelling misery for drivers.
Households also suffered as wholesale gas and electricity prices – which are linked to those of oil – soared to record levels and were swiftly passed on in higher fuel bills. Oil’s rise was also a main driver for soaring inflation in the UK, which doubled in six months to nearly 5%. But the intensification of the financial crisis this autumn has depressed the oil price to $60-$70 a barrel…
But the IEA cautions the low oil price will be short-lived. It expects oil to trade at an average of more than $100 a barrel between now and 2015 as supply shortages become a reality.
Oil prices can only go and stay so low as the value of the US dollar collapses due to printing too much cash…
@1
Please elaborate…
The problem comes with the fact that FUEL was put on the commodities market..
Example:
Shell oil SHIPS the oil to the USA.
They place it on the market to get MORE money and see WHOM buys it..
They can ALSO buy it BACK, at 2-3 times the WHOLESALE price…
THEN they add MARKUP prices,
Ship to the Stations, who ADD their markup..
ANd we end up with $4 gas..
PS.. there is NO COMPETITION between the oil companies..
I’ve been watching the oil market for a couple of years now. It is extremely difficult to predict these days. The key word is “volatility”.
The primary reasons for the recent decline is because oil futures are “liquid” and can be sold quickly for easy cash. All commodities have been sinking recently as people are trying to raise cash. The dollar is bucking the trend and going up in value, which is also helping to lower prices.
The third reason for lower prices is declining demand. From Sep 2007 to sep 2008, the US used 9% LESS oil. That is a HUGE drop! Buying hybrids and not taking long road trips is helping, although unemployed people not driving to work, and huge gas shortages in the south east US helped a lot too.
The truth is crude oil production world wide is declining. Primary exporting countries are exporting less, and keeping oil to themselves. If demand stays below or equal to supply, we will continue to see cheap prices.
Sometime between 2010 and 2015 every oil producing country will be in terminal decline (US has been in terminal decline since 1972). This is what is known as “peak oil” and will lead to forced rationing, and/or sky high prices.
The low prices for oil today are in the opinion of many too low, and are very likely to lead to sporadic severe gas shortages next year. Oil prices are likely to be in a yo-yo pattern for a while, but the overall trend will be higher.
Somebody here is actually old enough to remember this tune. Now, get off my lawn!!!
# 2 a said, “@1 Please elaborate…”
On the connection between printing paper money & inflation? You weren’t aware of that?
#6, Cow-Paddy, Ignorant Shit Talking Sociopath,
You said:
Oil prices can only go and stay so low as the value of the US dollar collapses due to printing too much cash…
That left someone wondering at your wise insight. Please, elaborate. That is, if you understand the relationship here. Of course, if you are just bull-pooping again, don’t bother.
Cute ride. Must be the iHotAir guy. Or booger special, or whatever handle he is using today.
#7 It’s called monetary inflation. That should give you enough to start studying the subject…
1 is part right, if we do go towards hyper-inflation then stuff gets more expensive, including gas.
Sadly this story was invalidated by an earlier story on this blog “Fuel-Making Fungus Challenges Oil Creation Theory”
Fox news reporting that, right after the election?
John D., sell your DUG now. Up a bit in the short term. Take that money and run.
It isn’t going to $200, though. HA HA!
#10. “Sadly this story was invalidated by an earlier story on this blog “Fuel-Making Fungus Challenges Oil Creation Theory”
yes, soon every pizza will generate enough fuel to deliver it, and every hippie on his way to Burning Man will have a secret stash of fuel in a little ziploc.
Don’t you mean when oil speculators come back into Wall St. the prices will go back up
I’ll bet when the owner of this vehicle has to pee and holds it with 3 fingers, he gets 2 of them wet.
This last bought of over $3.00/gal gas pricing “jumped the shark” for me.
I’m going electric as soon as it’s feasible.
One around-town electric car, solar cells, windmill, whatever.
How much would it cost to buy an oil tanker, fill it up and park it at some dock for 20 years? Sounds like a viable business plan if you had the cash to fund it!
Fuel hasnt been in the commodities market for that long..
ISNT it supposed to be,
That the MORE they Buy in the market the price GOES DOWN..
It DIDNT…
The CORPS pushed the price UP, to cover the market…
NOW..
They DUMP the price, after everyone has invested, and keep 1/3 of the money.
ANd are we going to BAIL THEM OUT???
#14 – Ah_Yea
My Indian car arrived today. It’s guaranteed to give at least 150 MPI.
#17 – Dot powered!
#10 “It isn’t going to $200, though. HA HA!”
IEA is wrong, it will hit $200 within the next 2 years.
Oh, be quiet. Who cares? Are we going to stop eating because food costs more? Nobody can do anything about the price of oil. We are sick of hearing about it. Go get a pair of roller skates, for Christ’s sake.
Hey, #13! I guess you don’t get it! A WOMAN drives this PINK car. And she has one of those
“Hello Kitty” AR 15’s to deal with guys like you or me.
Did Bush already blow the US Strategic Reserve? If so, this is the damn good time to replenish it.
[I apologize in advance for this rant, but once I started I couldn’t stop.]
In an excellent brief analysis, # 4 ArianeB said, in part:
“The truth is crude oil production world wide is declining.”
If I might have just a moment of your time, I’d like to point something out, somthing that _should_ be obvious. Anyone who thought about it for more than a minute at a time had to realize that one day the oil would run out, be gone, get used up, etc. There’s only so much of it, and, as the old saying goes, “They’re not making any more of it.”
It’s really too bad the Clintons didn’t get their “BTU tax” passed, it might have slowed the approach of this moment. Because
this.
is.
it.
There will _never_ever_ever_ be this much petroleum in the world again. (At least not for millions of years — it takes a LONG time to make the stuff.)
People have been in denial about this for so long, it’s almost impossible to get them to face the obvious: there is only so much oil. Some day it will all be gone! Fini! Kaput! No more! Gone the way of the Dodo! Up in smoke! GONE!
Yet the human race has, by and large, completely ignored this fact and relied on oil for energy more and more and more and more and more. When was the last time you saw anyone do anything entirely by hand? No one rakes leaves any more, they blow them away with a gasoline-powered blower. No one mops floors any more, they clean the floor with a floor cleaner powered by an internal combustion engine!
(Side rant:This is one of the most _insane_ things I have ever seen! Who agrees to work inside a building with one of these things running? Apparently, the employment market is so bad that entire store staffs, cashiers, stockers, managers and everybody all cheerfully sit there gleefully inhaling these fumes day and night. End of side rant.)
Everywhere I look, more and more tasks are being done by gasoline-powered engines both large and small. And have you even TRIED to walk anywhere lately? It’s almost impossible. And if you try to ride a bicycle, drivers are so hostile that they’ll actually go out of their way to intimidate you or knock you over.
The height of this insanity was reached with the Hummer and the Escalade, the Explorer, the Navigator and all the other Behemoth Leviathans of the road, all being driven as though they were sporty little cars zipping around like Mini Coopers or those little brick-shaped SAABs.
So the 21st century arrives and the oil’s almost gone, and – voila! – the price starts to go up a little bit. What do we do? We print bumper stickers saying “It’s our oil, let’s just take it!” and start a few wars, as though it were God’s plan for us to have all the oil we could burn, for ever and ever. We’re setting ourselves up for a big fall and it won’t be pretty. I just hope we can stall it long enough that I won’t have to live through it. I’ve never had to kill anyone and it would be hard as hell to have to learn how at my age.
Thank you for putting up with my rant.
Ride a bus at least once in your life; take a train; buy a smaller car; move closer to work, or at least work closer to home; double your home’s insulation; get to know some Amish people, or at least think a while about how they live without electricity and gasoline.
Good night and good luck.
UP.
have you ever tried to find a pedestrian walk area, or BIKE route that DIDNT take you at least 1/2-3/4 of a mile OUT OF YOUR WAY??
you wont find one…FREEWAYS dont have cross overs..
If oil goes up we just need to find a better power source for 3500lb or larger vehicles. Small cars are OK for Europe, but Americans have self respect and need worthy vehicles.
#8 – I’m not into pink, although the ground clearance is good for getting over piles of protesters. 😉
some people are smart and will turn to ways to consume less energy, thereby spending less money on it, thereby having more money in their pocket.
some people are smart and will advocate that everyone does this, thereby reducing demand, thereby keeping the cost down for everyone.
some people are stupid and will continue to waste energy, thereby spending more money, thereby having less money in their pocket.
some people are stupid and will advocate these wasteful ways and tell you that it’s unpatriotic to conserve energy.
and at least one asshole on this will imply that it’s okay to waste fuel because either:
1.) obama flew in a private plane during the campaign, or
2.) rich people fly in private planes, or
3.) celebrities in hollywood drive around in limos
which totally misses the point.
this is like the war on drugs — you’ll never bring down the price of fuel (or drugs) if the demand-side of the equation remains (pardon the pun) high.
No, no, no. The fungus in Knight Rider 2000 worked on water, not oil.
Yea they said it would be $200 by October 2008. Wrong again. It will be $40 or less next year. You watch. Then your president elect will take credit, giving you nothing but more taxes while he laughs all the way to the World Bank with his oil buddies. This is just amazing. Why don’t people see this?
#29 what about obama’s “tax cuts” clearly outlined in his campaign did you not understand?
also, who must have confused barack obama with g.w. bush and dick cheney who are straight-up life-long oil men with thicker-than-blood ties to the industry.
why do you cling so desperately to such empty rhetoric? are you on drugs?
Oil dropped as the oil companies attempted to remove any influence their prices might have on the election. Their guy can’t win if the rural folks can’t afford to drive to the poling laces. It will go back up as quickly as they can get it up without creating antitrust violations.
The real problem is the worlds economy destroyed by the greed of the oil people, both Bush/Cheney and their leaders, the oil Sheiks. Soon there will be no demand for oil as humanity either starves to death or rises up to vanquish the oil cartel.