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Ireland’s biggest bookmaker Paddy Power said Thursday it would pay out early more than $1.35 million on bets that Barack Obama will be the next U.S. president, three weeks ahead of the election.
The Dublin-based bookmaker said it made the “unprecedented decision” to pay on bets taken so far, following Wednesday’s final campaign debate between Obama and his Republican rival John McCain, which polls judged the Democrat to have won.
“We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama,” Power said…
In June a wager of 100,000 euros was placed on Obama to win at odds of 1-2, yielding a payout of 150,000 euros, it added.
BTW – You can still place bets on the margin of victory for Obama over McCain.
“Dewey Defeats Truman!”
“God is Love”
Well, it’s all over but the Crying, eh, Repukes ??? But we have yet to hear the SCREAMING, WAILING, AND GNASHING OF TEETH AS THE REPUKES ARE ***SWEPT OUT OF THE CONGRESS AS WELL*** !!!
Just noticed you can bet on when/whether McCain drops Pain before the election. Over/under.
Isn’t this how Hillary won some primaries?
I know McCain and Obama are puppets, but I will be very depressed if Palin reaches the White House.
As an American, it’s embarrassing our President appears inept. We can’t afford to have a new VP with less brain function than our current Pres.
It sickens me when Politicians “remember” someone specific from their rally and mentions them with detail to make a point… as if they genuinely care for real Americans.
It should be very clear by now that this particular election is game, and now there are Odds.
Why not go full-on and let these elections turn into a lottery? If you vote for the candidate that wins the White House (yes “wins” not “earns”) then you win a cash prize!
I think $700Bn ought to cover that lotto.
Thank you my friends. I think you all know what this means:
McCain/Palin ’12!
Eideard, this is my favorite thread here ever, but I’m having a hard time understanding the page you linked:
Singles Only. Applies to total Electoral College votes won from individual states at the time of the 2008 US Presidential Election
Barack Obama -160.0 5 – 6
John McCain +160.0 5 – 6
Is he stating that a bet on Obama would only pay if he gets 160 more thank McCain, or 160 more than what he needs to lockup a win? I’m assuming the former, and that makes McCain a good bet. We have to assume most of the existing red states will go to McCain, sans Ohio, Missouri, and potentially Colorado.
What do you guys think?
(Note: I’m not implying that you all do think, because the typical left wing hate posts are showing up even in this thread… which tells me you actually think McCain still has a chance. Wake up kids.)
“Joe the Plumber” was the star last night… too bad for McCain that he picked out a ‘typical American businessman’ that is turning out to be a fraud:
a) ‘Joe’ is a registered Republican
b) ‘Joe’ belongs to a wealthy family that has close ties to Charles Keating, as in ‘the Keating five’.
You would think that after Watergate, the Republicans would have learned to stay away from the word ‘Plumbers’… after all, it was the ‘Plumbers’ that brought down the Nixon administration.
Insanity, and pretty darned near impossible to believe.
3 weeks is a long time–someone could die, get accused of child molesting, make a fatal error in judgment, get caught up in brilliant swiftboating, who the heck knows.
Bush & Cheney could start a war. The “evil doers” could stage another terrorist attack. Cindy McCain could buy all of America a Budweiser.
Although the election is **probably** over, what sane bookie would pay off before the election? This story stinks on ice.
James Hill, a -160 would mean 350-188 to win the bet. Not unreasonable if you consider Florida has basically been dead even the last 3 elections, and Virginia will go to Obama before Florida. Overall Obama could win the Kerry states(252 votes)+Iowa7, New Mexico5, Nevada5, Colorado9, Missouri11, Virginia15, Florida27, Ohio20, North Carolina15, Georgia15, West Virginia5, Indiana12, Montana 4 for 402 votes.
#3 because I’m sure things will be so much better with them in charge. What a naive ideologue you are.
This is an egregious example of the leftie liberal MSB (Main Stream Bookmakers).
Wait until you guys find out that Joe the Plumber is a registered Republican who doesn’t make more than $40,000 a year. Also he has had a lien against him for NOT PAYING HIS PROPERTY TAX!!!!!! This guys is upset about a tax that he wouldn’t have to pay and probably won’t pay anyway!
OH and the BIG ONE!!!! HE ISN’T A PLUMBER!!!!! He doesn’t have a personal license to be a plumber and it is required to have one, even if your employer has one, in his city.
Typical Republican!!! He wants to skirt the law and work without a license. Then he doesn’t want to pay his taxes. Then wants to be given more benefits by not being taxed when he makes it bigger than most Americans.
Lets face it. I think he was a Republican Plant! A plant that is about to backfire on the McCain campaign.
If I needed to publish official scientific paper with the existing evidence, I would only be able to support “dead even” theory… I don’t think (this is more intuition than measurement) anything will change much by the election time. So, I’d place bet on extremely close election – the narrowest popular vote difference ever seen and the coin toss on who’ll get the electoral votes. But, than who wants the science when emotions are more exciting…
#11 – I’m assuming that’s what’s meant: Thank you for the clear statement, and for the math.
My thinking is that Obama won’t win all of those states. More specifically, I think Florida’s going to McCain, and I have my doubts about black turnout in Atlanta and North Carolina.
I think NM, OH, IN and MO are all going Obama. The rest I believe are all about conservative turnout (in other words, the Palin effect).
I wonder if either (or both) sides will attempt to do some election day voter suppression stuff? The GOP already started today by challenging some pre-election voting (where’s the left wing hate thread on that – it’s a legit story)?
Well, # 12 gquaglia, I think most people would agree with me that when you SCREW UP – BIGTIME – AS IN ***WORLD-WIDE REPUBLICAN DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO*** THE NEO-CONS, REPUKES, AND GOP SHOULD EXPECT TO GET ***PINK SLIPS*** !!! LOTS OF THEM !!! As in ***EVERY NEO-CON, REPUKE, AND GOPper HOLDING ANY PUBLIC OFFICE*** !!! It’s just TERM LIMITS FOR THE GOP !!!
#16 – doubt if attempts at challenges on early voting will do the Republikans much good.
Polls of early voters in several states have Obama winning almost 2:1. Generally, early voters have been long-term registered, anyway – least likely to have social security number or address variables.
Not that it will slow down the rather laughable attack crap ads. I think the RNC will keep them up regardless of McCain’s wishes. It’s an interesting battle shaping over who will own the Repubs from here on out?
#10 – You know nothing about gambling – especially in Europe and the UK. Obviously.
You know even less about mathematics and probability. I imagine you heard the word from Rush who doesn’t know what it means either.
I’ll try an easy explanation: Euro bookies do this occasionally – usually on sports league championships – and write it down as part of their advertising costs. Every major news service in the world likely carried this story.
You – on the other hand – never heard of Paddy Power before in your life. Annual turnover is in excess of $3 billion.
Check this bit out from Howard Stern.
http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=194983
They all support Obama and think his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate is great. They also like that he’s Prolife and want to keep the troops in Iraq. I just love voters in this county.
#17 JimD:
“THE NEO-CONS, REPUKES, AND GOP SHOULD EXPECT TO GET ***PINK SLIPS*** !!! LOTS OF THEM !!!”
They did, two years ago. Now can we give all the Democrats pink slips for not getting us out of Iraq like they promised?
And quit using the damn caps lock key!
J, so if someone says anything critical of the messiah, they’re going to have their whole life exposed to the public? Is that what political debate is about?
# 22 MikeN
“so if someone says anything critical of the messiah, they’re going to have their whole life exposed to the public? ”
OH FUCKING PLEASE!!!!!
The Republicans parade him out and try to use him to promote their candidate. That makes it fair game. If he didn’t want to be involved he shouldn’t have approached Obama and LIED to him and then allowed the Right to use him as a pawn.
If the story was true it would be arguable but IT WAS ALL LIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MikeN,
McCain uttered the plumber’s name at least nine times last night, so give it a rest. He walked up to Obama with a camera firmly planted in his face knowing full well that he could be on nation-wide news.
When did Republicans become victims? I thought that was the Democrat’s area of expertise.
MikeN,
McCain uttered the plumber’s name at least nine times last night, so give it a rest. He walked up to Obama with a camera firmly planted in his face knowing full well that he could be on nation-wide news.
When did Republicans become victims? I thought that area of expertise was reserved for Democrats.
A real life “Joe (DiMiglio) the Plumber” did work for my parents and my wife and I for about 30 years. He died about 3 years ago. It was a jolt to me every time the debaters used that phrase.
# 25 circuitsmith
It would be an insult to compare The Republican “Joe the Plumber fraud” to your REAL “Joe the Plumber” who I am sure was a good guy.
#22 – Lyin’ Mike
You better get cracking, dude. This whole hubub surrounding “Joe” the “Plumber” is making you look like a piker, lyin’-wise:
“ HOLLAND, Ohio – Joe the Plumber said Thursday he doesn’t have a license and doesn’t need one. Joe Wurzelbacher, better known as Joe the Plumber, the nickname Republican John McCain bestowed on him during Wednesday’s presidential debate, said he works for a small plumbing company that does residential work. Because he works for someone else, he doesn’t need a license, he said.
But the county Wurzelbacher and his employer live in, Lucas County, requires plumbers to have licenses. Neither Wurzelbacher nor his employer are licensed there, said Cheryl Schimming of Lucas County Building Regulations, which handles plumber licenses in parts of the county outside Toledo.
Wurzelbacher, who voted in the Republican primary and indicated he backed McCain, was cited by the GOP presidential candidate as an example of someone who wants to buy a plumbing business but would be hurt by Democrat Barack Obama’s tax plans. Wurzelbacher said he was surprised that his name was mentioned so many other times.
“That bothered me. I wished that they had talked more about issues that are important to Americans,” he told reporters gathered outside his home.
Wurzelbacher, 34, said he doesn’t have a good plan put together on how he would buy Newell Plumbing and Heating in nearby Toledo.
He said the business consists of owner Al Newell and him. Wurzelbacher said he’s worked there for six years and that the two have talked about his taking it over at some point.
“There’s a lot I’ve got to learn,” he said.
Wurzelbacher said he started his day with an early morning workout and came back to his suburban Toledo home to do live interviews with TV networks.
Reporters camped out by his house overnight and by midmorning there were 21 people on his driveway surrounding him, holding cameras and notebooks.
Wurzelbacher said he’s feeling overwhelmed.
>b>”I’m kind of like Britney Spears having a headache. Everybody wants to know about it,” he joked.
In Toledo on Sunday, Wurzelbacher told Obama that he was preparing to buy the plumbing company, which earns more than $250,000 a year, and said: “Your new tax plan is going to tax me more, isn’t it?”
Obama said that under his proposal taxes on any revenue from $250,000 on down would stay the same, but that amounts above that level would be subject to a 39 percent tax, instead of the current 36 percent rate.
Wurzelbacher said Obama’s tax plan wouldn’t affect him right now, because he doesn’t make $250,000. “But I hope someday I’ll make that,” he said.
“If you believed (Obama), I’d be receiving his tax cuts,” Wurzelbacher said. “But I don’t look at it that way. He’d still be hurting others.”
As he leaned against the Dodge Durango SUV parked in his driveway Thursday morning, Wurzelbacher indicated to reporters who crowded around that <b?he was a conservative, a fan of the military and McCain. He said meeting McCain would be an honor but said he hadn’t been contacted by the Republican campaign.
Still, the plumber wouldn’t say who he was voting for and brushed off a question about whether he could influence the election or other voters.
“I don’t have a lot of pull. It’s not like I’m Matt Damon,” Wurzelbacher said.
“I just hope I’m not making too much of a fool of myself,” he added.“.
HAW!!! Holy Toledo!
Sorry Joe, you’re rich! Well, Joe, at least hypothetically rich. Sorry Joe, maybe you’ll be rich in the future!
Well, Desperate Men do Desperate Things !!! Tried to promote “Joe the Plumber” as “JUST FOLKS” !!! I’m surprised McCain didn’t open a BAG OF PORK RINDS !!! But it looks like McCain has STEPPED IN A PILE OF “Joe the Plumber” !!! And is HOPPING AROUND ON ONE FOOT !!! Tried to MANUFACTURE A “Harry and Louise” episode, but will end up BAILING BILGEWATER out of SS “Straight Talk Express” !!!