MediaCurves.Com – A Service of HCD Research Inc. — An interesting site with a self-selecting research base that could be way off, but there are trends. The main one, to me, is that the Democrats are more in lock-step than the Republicans so with just an even split of the undecided and independents they should win this election easily. Let’s see how they blow it. (Or not blow it.) Unless the Republicans pull out that non-existent but rumored video of Michelle Obama calling out whitey while sister-necking and wagging her finger, I don’t see any rabbits in the hat. The current Republican strategies have shown no creativity. Overconfidence could be a factor for the Dems.
This study gave participants the opportunity to use their cell phones or the web as response tools to provide their opinions on which candidate was winning the debate regarding key issues facing the country. The results were gathered simultaneously through text messaging and a web tool and displayed live on Mediacurves.com. Over 1200 respondents participated in this study.
Who won the debate is a different question from whom are you going to vote for. Obama should win. There are more Dem voters and Bob Barr.
I am VERY concerned by your posted video of that idiot woman in Kentucky. http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=25878
I think there are more of those types than we would like to think and I suspect they don’t get polled.
Democrats are not as close to the White House as you suggest. There are many who say they will vote for Obama to a pollster, but when it comes to action will vote McCain.
The reason is you are not only voting for Obama, but also for his militant America hating friends. Who do you think he will be placing into all those high government positions?
Even Democrats aren’t willing to destroy the country in one guilt-ridden sweep.
Interesting but too small of a cross-section and “use their cell phones or the web as response tools”…lots of people who vote don’t use either of those tools…my parents and ALL of their friends who vote Republican and are legion.
Expunge enough non-residents from the election rolls, including black people displaced from their homes by the recent hurricanes, and the numbers could look quite different.
By all rights the Dems should win this one. Bush’s popularity problem alone should hand the White House to the Dems, even if they ran a corpse against McCain.
Saying that it is the Dems to lose is the understatement of this century.
We’ll see if they blow what should be a “gimmee”
#2–contempt==you ask: “Who do you think he will be placing into all those high government positions?” /// Gee, people like Biden instead of people like Palin. That will be horrible.
Funny post though. How long can you keep the charade going?
If such a video exist, why is it not out there right now? Is it sitting in a glass case on Karl Rove’s bookshelf with a sign “In case of losing election, break glass”?
There still might be an October surprise (how would the electorate react to an Osama tape?) but I’m not sure if the conservatives wouldn’t cut McCain loose in order to save their real darling Palin. As a bonus for them, if McCain loses, I bet he retires from the Senate.
The ultimate irony about the debates is how much can Democrats thank Hillary for “toughing him up” in the primaries.
Both bobbo and contempt got to the point before me.
And both observed the correct answer.
The one question missing, and the only one which really matters, was “Will you vote for Obama?”
“The first big hint that conservative white Democrats could cause problems for Obama came in the Democratic primary in Ohio. Hillary Clinton beat out Obama in the primary and she did it mainly with white votes. But that wasn’t the whole story. Nearly one quarter of whites in Ohio flatly said race did matter in voting. … An even bigger hint of Obama’s race problem came in Pennsylvania’s primary. … The same percent of white Democrats as in Ohio told exit poll interviewers that they would not back Obama. Race was the prime reason. Clinton racked up victories in the West Virginia, Kentucky and South Dakota primaries. Again, a significant percent of white Democrats said they would not back Obama, and the reason was race. … In the AP-Yahoo poll one third of white Democrats said they had negative views of blacks. “Violent,” “lazy,” “boastful,” “complaining” and “irresponsible” were the terms many used to describe blacks. More than 40 percent of them said they would not back Obama.”
Personally, I hope and pray this isn’t true. Love or hate Obama, I can only hope people vote based on merit and not irrelevant skin color.
But I’m not holding my breath.
http://tinyurl.com/3wjss
Overconfident?
No. Americans are focused on domestic policy, McCain’s running on foreign policy. Thus far, he’s been unable to connect with the subject especially well, and in the last week, he’s done a great deal to suggest that anything’s changed for him.
I don’t see any shock value in the polls ATM.
#8 “Love or hate Obama, I can only hope people vote based on merit and not irrelevant skin color.”
Careful, you might get what you ask for. What would happen to the black vote for Obama then?
this is the link, the last one cut off the r..
http://tinyurl.com/3wjssr
Here’s a good site that combines many Presidential polls.
So a poll of 1200 is representative in what way? Seriously, 1200 is an utterly stupid sample to use for ANY poll, but especially when its supposed to represent hundreds of millions of potential voters.
#4 “Expunge enough non-residents from the election rolls, including black people displaced from their homes by the recent hurricanes,”
Well, there were FAR more whites displaced than blacks so, what point are you trying to make?
#6 bobbo
I stand corrected – I’ll mark you down as one democrat willing to destroy the country in one guilt-ridden sweep.
#10, Paddy-O.
I have a couple of points about the black vote.
First point: if Obama is going to win, he needs votes from across the entire spectrum including Hispanics and Whites. He’s working on that.
Second point: It’s not too much of a stretch to believe his popularity among the black voters is because they believe he will be a much better advocate for their concerns than McCain.
Which is exactly the right reason to vote for Obama. This is one of Obama’s merits. It is a given that he will represent the needs of the poor better than McCain, so those who believe this should vote for him based on this merit.
Therefore this “black vote” isn’t and “issue” at all.
#3 got it right… One must pay attention that the data gathering method does not favor certain slice of the society. Choice of method here self-selects the result. It does not mean that the proper sample wouldn’t be different in either direction but omitting majority of the population (that either doesn’t use techie’ methods or, even more likely is not prone to participate in such use of the tech’) is irresponsible. Title of this post should have been: “Irresponsible polling – intentional attack on the Democracy or just plain stupidity?”
#16 “Second point: It’s not too much of a stretch to believe his popularity among the black voters …”
And, it’s not too much of a stretch to believe that Santa delivered your X-mas presents last year.
With that comment you lost the ability to claim that you posses analytic skills.
I’m voting for Bush/Palin for one simple reason, the material on Saturday Night Live is better than EVER. I want 4 more years of THAT!
#7 Hyph3n. I doubt this video exist either, but if it did I wouldn’t play it till 3 or 4 days before the election.
It would be like dropping an Atom Bomb on the Obama campaign, and they wouldn’t have enough time to regroup before election day.
This is all so funny to me. Who cares who “Won” or “Lost” the debate? Let’s assume Barry “won”. What does that mean to me? Nothing. I would not vote for him because he is a better talker. He still is FOR so many things I am AGAINST. Same for Palin and Biden. Who cares? The people will not vote for somebody they do not LIKE. And if more people like Palin than Biden, and Barry Hussein is a great speaker, McCain will be the President. Do you people all forget that Kerry led Bush in everything? Who’s the President, kids? Kerry? No, I didn’t think so.
McCain should start planning his inaguration, because nobody likes Biden, and everybody likes Palin, and McCain is not a Marxist. I guess that part was not factored in, now was it? And, of course, America is racist, and Barry’s wife is a monstrosity, and nobody likes her.
#5 Paddy
“Bush’s popularity problem alone should hand the White House to the Dems, even if they ran a corpse against McCain.”
So it was when he was reelected, everyone hated him but they voted for him on his promise to make it a constitutional right to never treat gays & lesbians as equals and the only ones to blame then were the democrats who fell right in into their trap.
Politics aside for one moment. The Cubs should go to the World Series and probably win it. The Dems should own Republicans on election day.
I have faith that both of them can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. One thing for sure, the wackiness of the last two weeks is just a prelude for what’s coming next.
Sort of like playing the national anthem before a Cubs game.
I’m from Arizona, and I can tell you there’s no way McCain wins this election. The media is going to drop a bomb a few days before election day with what is kind of an open secret here in Arizona. When McCain first ran for Congress, he got plenty of help and attended fundraisers from anti-abortion extremists who attacked Planned Parenthood clinics.
#22 Angel H. Wong blurted out,
“So it was when he was reelected, everyone hated him but they voted for him on his promise to make it a constitutional right …”
Umm, no. Bush’s ratings 4 1/2 years ago were much higher than now.
Thanks for playing though.
#24: that might actually help him get the large religious vote. Those people will simply stay home otherwise.
What I don’t get is why Obama isn’t crushing McCain in the polls right now. This should be a slam-dunk for Obama, and the fact that it isn’t should trouble his fanatical supporters.
I’m behind Obama all the way… waaaaay behind him.
#24 – Hell, do you think any abortionists will vote for a Republican? If anything like your story exists, or comes out, it will get McCain MORE votes, kiddo. What most Dems forget is:
There are more Conservative Americans than Marxist liberals, and many Americans won’t vote for a Black person for President, just like they won’t vote for a Jew, or won’t vote for a Mexican. Personally, I would vote for C. Powell, C. Rice, or Liberman, but that doesn’t change the mindset of millions of Americans, like my mother and ALL of her friends. She went through the depression, and WWII, and she is DIFFERENT than all the young people supporting B. Hussein. The fact is, they tell pollsters one thing, and think another thing. My aunts and uncles are life long Democrats who tell me they are voting for McCain this time around. We’ll see who wins in November, and no stupid pollster or pundit knows, so why don’t they all simply be quiet, or, more to the point, as they say in the Army, “How about a nice big cup of “shut the f*ck up”?
What is “sister necking”? I’ve never heard that one.
#21 – Digby
>>everybody likes Palin
They’d “like” to see her in pasties and a G-string.
As to “liking” her being one heartbeat away from the presidency, I haven’t met anyone yet who feels that way. Even the far-rightwing pundits are starting to cringe when they see those interviews where she reveals her hair-raising ignorance on just about every topic of any importance to America.
And the rest of your post (Obama = Marxist, etc.) is just more right wingnut hot air. Did you copy ‘n’ paste it from rush limbaugh dot com??
Personally, I hope and pray this isn’t true. Love or hate Obama, I can only hope people vote based on merit and not irrelevant skin color.
You really believe 95% of the black vote is for merit???
You really believe they are voting for the content of his caricter