There’s more information available here than the average True Believer will countenance. Here’s just a taste:

Abrupt climate change is a potential menace that hasn’t received much attention. That’s about to change. The U.S. Department of Energy recently launched IMPACTS – Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate Transitions – a program led by William Collins of Berkeley Lab’s Earth Sciences Division that brings together six national laboratories to attack the problem of abrupt climate change…

Sparked by the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize that was shared by Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the reality of global warming finally got through to the majority of the world’s population. Most people think of climate change as something that occurs only gradually, however, with average temperature changing two or three degrees Celsius over a century or more; this is the rate at which ‘forcing’ mechanisms operate, such as the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels or widespread changes in land use.

But climate change has occurred with frightening rapidity in the past and will almost certainly do so again. Perhaps the most famous example is the reverse hiccup in a warming trend that began 15,000 years ago and eventually ended the last ice age. Roughly 2,000 years after it started, the warming trend suddenly reversed, and temperatures fell back to near-glacial conditions; Earth stayed cold for over a thousand years, a period called the Younger Dryas (named for an alpine wildflower). Then warming resumed so abruptly that global temperatures shot up 10 °C in just 10 years.

Because civilizations hadn’t yet emerged, complex human societies escaped this particular roller-coaster ride. Nevertheless, some form of abrupt climate change is highly likely in the future, with wide-ranging economic and social effects.

RTFA – and the linked materials, as well. Truly interesting.




  1. jim h says:

    Let’s say then that 98% of the world’s climate scientists turn out to be wrong, but we don’t find out until it’s too late, and we’ve gone ahead and developed alternative energy sources. We have cleaner air, better health, quieter cities, and are no longer shipping huge bags of money to the Saudi royal family, the Russian mafia, and Hugo Chavez. All for no reason.

    A bitter pill indeed.

  2. Guyver says:

    I’ve tried posting three times here since this afternoon. What is it about my posts that require having them excluded? I just listed two URLs.

  3. geofgibson says:

    #32 – Jim, you are absolutely correct in that there are plenty of good reasons to not buy oil from dictators, clean up air and water supplies, and, in general, clean up our messes.

    So why do politicians and scientists have to rabidly squawk nonsense and play games with scientists instead of just saying and doing the right thing? The American people, if not the rest of the world, would jump at the chance to do sensible things. The problem is that, when the bullshit detector is slamming off the scale, people’s common sense leads them to be skeptical. Treat climate and energy like science instead of religion. Duh!

  4. Guyver says:

    Ahhhhhhhhhh, I now understand what James Hill has been griping about.

    I guess the URLs I sent were deemed inappropriate so they got censored out.

    Well one was linked to how the Greenhouse Equations that NASA has been using is being challenged by one of their own.

    The other was a link to the video titled “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. I thought it was worth the post with people swearing that man-made global warming was a fact (even though there’s no explanation as to what effect man has on the other planets of our solar system exhibiting the same problem).

  5. Guyver says:

    29, LOL. Another ego-centric self-absorbed comment about your intellectual superiority AGAIN? Typical liberal. 🙂

  6. geofgibson says:

    #35 – The rabid global warming fanatics refuse to debate the content of TGGWS because it’s “right wing propaganda.”

    Isn’t it funny how the same people who ridicule religion seem to be the ones who approach global warming like the IPCC is the Spanish Inquisition?

  7. J says:

    # 31 geofgibson

    I don’t have the time to respond to so many. You guys have an obvious lack of knowledge on the topic. That is not ad hominem. That is FACT.

    As to all your claims…..

    They are general

    “the politicians” well that narrows it down. “The IPCC and other scientists ” Well that opens it to every scientist in the world.

    “The planet has NOT been in a 10 year cooling trend”

    No it has not. That is a VERY LARGE misinterpretation of the data.

  8. Guyver says:

    38, So you say.

    Last time you were an expert on the Nielsen ratings preaching how the news is not biased except for money (even though you discuss “target audiences”). And now you’re an authority on “Man-Made” global warming to disqualify people’s comments on the topic because you somehow know all the facts? LOL.

    The IPCC DOES NOT represent every scientist in the world. Are you THAT naive? The problem with the IPCC is that they have turned into a political entity whereby they too are pushing an agenda which “The Great Global Warming Swindle” brings up and addresses.

    But no, go ahead and tell everyone that the IPCC speaks for every scientist in the world while you proclaim that every non-Global Warming alarmist has an obvious lack of knowledge (as though you are an authority on the topic).

  9. geofgibson says:

    #38 – ““the politicians” well that narrows it down.”

    As I posted before, former US Senator Timothy Wirth, (D-Colo) said that “We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing – in terms of economic policy and environmental policy..” That is but one example. But I guess that’s too specific.

    “The IPCC and other scientists ” Well that opens it to every scientist in the world.

    Well, the IPCC is specific. From the summary, “There is high confidence that neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts” As well as, reported by the LA Times, “In the strongest language it has ever used, a United Nations panel says global warming is “very likely” caused by human activities and has become a runaway train that cannot be stopped.
    The warming of Earth and increases in sea levels “would continue for centuries.”

    Then we have more specifics, “All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA’s GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years.”

    But I’m sure this a VERY LARGE misinterpretation of these very specific facts, right?

  10. Guyver says:

    Basic Greenhouse Equations challenged by former NASA scientist (and global warming activist):

    http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher+Basic+Greenhouse+Equations+Totally+Wrong/article10973.htm

  11. Guyver says:

    FYI, the website has not been accepting posts using TinyURL links.

  12. #39 – MacGuyver

    >>they too are pushing an agenda which “The
    >>Great Global Warming Swindle” brings up and
    >>addresses.

    Tee hee!! You’re not actually citing that debunked mocumentary by discredited TV producer Martin Durkin?!??! The one that British regulators spanked him for, calling it “polemic”? The one that the scientists duped into appearing rejected out of hand?

    As Paddy O’Furniture would say…LOL!!!!!

  13. Malcolm says:

    Those in denial seem to be getting desparate.
    Well maybe, one day, they’ll learn to re-engage their brains. Unfortunately, it will be too late. The ability to actually process data has fled the space between their ears.
    If only the deniers realized there was profit to be made from all this.

  14. Guyver says:

    44, M&M, I’m afraid so. I’m well aware of the criticisms from the Left, but I honestly haven’t read anything that has “debunked” all or most of the documentary.

    Most of what I have read are that some of the people interviewed on the video have recanted what they said because they felt their comments were mischaracterized because of the use of polemics as you say.

  15. amodedoma says:

    Some of you think abrupt climate change exsists, some don’t. Some of you think it’s man-made, some don’t. Some of you think we can do something about it and some don’t. Some of you believe jesus walked with the dinosaurs, some don’t. Some of you result to personal insult, some don’t. Some of you have an opinion worth reading and some don’t.
    Conclusion – when the shit storms really hits everybody’s gonna be to busy arguing about it to react.

  16. Cursor_ says:

    Look I understand that humans in general are pansies when it comes to death. They have been prattling on about monsters, spooks, deities, end of the world and what not for thousands of years.

    DEATH HAPPENS. We will ALL experience it. It does not matter if it is a personal experience or part of a disaster.

    I am FAR more likely to die from a slip in my tub than the LHC making a black hole, a meteor impact or some huge flood due to climate change. Should I now fear the tub and beg some government agency to fund research on how to avoid dying in the tub?

    We will die. Accept your fate and GET OVER IT.

    Cursor_

  17. amodedoma says:

    #49 Cursor_

    Yeah but,

    I love my world, I love my race, I love my offspring, and most of all I love my life. Hell I accept death, doesn’t mean I want to do it any time soon though, personally I got a lot to live for. This whole shortsighted attitude stems from the fact that if all your worried about is having a bigger pile of stuff than your neighbours then maybe you don’t got that much to live for. The government should spend for pure research (and not just military) because it’s money well invested. Obviously, having a technological edge makes a country more competitive. Any form of government is going to mismanage resources, but if social programs and spending is removed to cut costs what does that leave you.
    Meteorology and Physics should not be compared to bathtub safety…

  18. MikeN says:

    >We have cleaner air, better health, quieter cities, and are no longer shipping huge bags of money to the Saudi royal family, the Russian mafia, and Hugo Chavez.

    First of all cleaner air, generally means more global warming, as air pollution adds a negative feedback, reflecting sunlight.

    That aside, the cost of switching to another energy source is very high, and this needs to be taken into account.

    Your point about not sending money overseas is valid.

  19. Guyver says:

    50, Nor should it be compared to Jesus walking with the Dinosaurs. LOL.

    Plain and simple. Global Warming in general has been happening (even though there has been some global cooling). The disagreement is over whether or not man has had any SIGNIFICANT impact to cause this. And if so, why is it that the “Global Warming” Alarmists have focused only on planet Earth when it’s quite clear the other planets in our solar system are also warming?

    Gee…. what could the other planets in our solar system have in common to Earth to cause their global warming “crisis”? Obviously humans are out of the equation…. hmmm, probably it’s something so obvious we all see it everyday but either ignore it or don’t realize how significant it is to the global warming “crisis”.

    But then again, if I were an alarmist and couldn’t explain the behaviors of the other planets, I’d probably ignore them to push my agenda of “man-made global warming” and accuse anyone of questioning what I say as being in “denial”.

  20. J says:

    # 39 Guyver

    “So you say.”

    So I do.

    “Last time you were an expert on the Nielsen ratings preaching how the news is not biased except for money ”

    Yep you got it and all the evidence and fact back up my argument.

    “(even though you discuss “target audiences”)”

    Do you have a point there or are you just rambling?

    “And now you’re an authority on “Man-Made” global warming to disqualify people’s comments on the topic because you somehow know all the facts? ”

    Isn’t it a bitch when someone has money and an education combined with critical thinking skills? I am sorry your mommy and daddy couldn’t send you to community college so you could get your degree in electronics.

    Anytime you want to compare educational resumes you let me know. Like I told some other dolt. 1/2 of mine would put all of yours to shame. Hell just my list of offers would put yours to shame.

    “The IPCC DOES NOT represent every scientist in the world.”

    I never said it did. Perhaps you didn’t learn how to read in in High School.

    “The problem with the IPCC is that they have turned into a political entity whereby they too are pushing an agenda”

    Oh you mean the agenda to let people know that we might be fucking ourselves into non existence. Yes they do have an agenda.

    “which “The Great Global Warming Swindle” brings up and addresses. ”

    LOL you are going to use that comedy show as your evidence. Man are you fucking stupid. You are the kind of sucker that was all for the Iraq war too I bet because Sadam had Nuclear weapons right? Propaganda. Not Science. The fact alone that they call it a “swindle” in the title is evidence enough that THEY have an agenda.

    “But no, go ahead and tell everyone that the IPCC speaks for every scientist in the world ”

    I never said that! The problem with people like you is that you only see what you want to see because your arguments only work if you do.

    “while you proclaim that every non-Global Warming alarmist has an obvious lack of knowledge ”

    Again I never said that. Although, it tends to be true. What I require is scientific fact from people who have knowledge beyond what they are fed by the right wing/oil party propaganda machine. What do you know of climate science? Can you explain, on the molecular level, the process by which CO2 affects the atmosphere?

  21. Guyver says:

    53, Good grief here we go again on your self-absorbed perception of how highly you think of yourself. 🙂

    As for the IPCC, they’re cherry picking what they want to tell the world so objectivity is out the window…. but then again, I’m talking to someone who still thinks the News is only biased towards money. But you can’t accept Fox News due to their “target audience” and not their lack of bias (except for money). LOL.

    Here’s what I see, all the Global Warming alarmists are obsessing over just one planet and ignoring all the other planets which are also showing signs of rapid climate change. But no, you want to beat the drum that the Earth is the exceptional case and that you have this huge resume and elite education to back your cherry-picked facts up. LOL. Yeah typical Liberal spew. You definitely do see what you want to see.

    Do you do anything other than get on an emotional self-absorbed rant? 🙂

  22. J says:

    # 54 Guyver

    So I assume you don’t know anything about how CO2, on a molecular level, affects the atmosphere? If you do. Please, in your own words describe it for us.

    “I’m talking to someone who still thinks the News is only biased towards money. But you can’t accept Fox News due to their “target audience” and not their lack of bias ”

    Fox News doesn’t take the angle they do because they want to push an agenda!!!!! They do it because they know a large portion of the population is stupid will tune in like lemmings to the crap that they put on. If they thought for a minute they could make more money catering to liberal and the news they want. THEY WOULD!!! Don’t kid yourself. The news is a profit business and Rupert Murdock is a business man. He is just lucky. He can make more money spreading propaganda than he can delivering news and he like spreading propaganda.

    “Global Warming alarmists are obsessing over just one planet and ignoring all the other planets which are also showing signs of rapid climate change. ”

    Are you that fucking dumb???? That is completely fucking ridiculous statement! For one it doesn’t say what the changes are and two the other planets in our solar system have ALWAYS UNDERGONE DRAMATIC CHANGES.

    The sun did it theory is a bunch of nonsense.

    ” huge resume and elite education to back your cherry-picked facts up.”

    LOL that is the pot calling the kettle black. Except the education part. You don’t seem to have one.

  23. Guyver says:

    55, Thanks for proving my point about how self-absorbed you are and better clarifying how Fox & MSNBC slant their newscasts to cater to each of their target audience and thus having a political bias due to the network’s monetary bias. Either way, each network paints different a different picture political (regardless of their ultimate motivations).

    In a nutshell, (to humor your getting a degree in electronics at a community college and thus making you an informed expert on the Earth’s climate): C02 affects the atmosphere at the molecular level because it absorbs and emits certain frequencies within the IR radiation spectrum. This is what greenhouse gases do (including water vapor). BTW, should we be banning water vapor which is in greater abundance than CO2? 🙂

    You are absolutely correct that I did not embellish on the “why’s” the other planets in our solar system happen to also be going through dramatic changes in their climate as we are. But if you want to insist / argue there is absolutely no correlation and relegate that to a vast random coincidence, then by all means knock yourself out.

    I don’t see how I’m the pot calling the kettle black. I don’t recall myself talking about how much smarter I am nor my educational background being superior. I merely pointed out all your self-absorbed ego-centric rants. My guess is that you lost your temper and got on another rant defending your “informed” opinions while calling anyone who disagrees with you as having an OBVIOUS lack of knowledge. You definitely can get your buttons pushed easily. LOL. But go ahead, I know you’re going to do at least another response in colorful metaphors proclaiming your vast intellect, superior job offers, and long resume to make yourself feel better Stuart.

    You SHOULD be old enough to recognize this. You claim to have went to college in the early 80s: http://tinyurl.com/4yeacr 🙂

  24. Hyperkinetic says:

    Paddy-o said: “Especially since every time there is a warm period more plants and animals flourish as the climate gets wetter.

    You make an *excellent* point demonstrating how global warming is only going to get worse. Water vapor is MANY times the greenhouse gas that CO2 is. Warmer weather means more evaporation, which makes more water vapor, which traps more heat, which evaporates *MORE* water. It’s a vicious cycle.

  25. J says:

    # 56 Guyver

    “regardless of their ultimate motivations”

    So you are saying you agree with me?

    In a nutshell, (to humor your getting a degree in electronics at a community college and thus making you an informed expert on the Earth’s climate)

    I never went to community college. I attended The University of Chicago and Cornell and one or two other Universities.

    “C02 affects the atmosphere at the molecular level because it absorbs and emits certain frequencies within the IR radiation spectrum. ”

    I said “how” on a molecular level . Your general common knowledge statement was not what I was looking for. Any 5 year old could have posted what you said. Try explaining “how” the IR interacts with the CO2. In your own terms too.

    “BTW, should we be banning water vapor which is in greater abundance than CO2?”

    Yes stupid lets ban water vapor!! Dipshit!

    “if you want to insist / argue there is absolutely no correlation and relegate that to a vast random coincidence”

    I don’t need to because there are different things happening on all of them and for different reasons but your propaganda outlets didn’t explain that little fact did they. They are not all warming up. They only thing the planets have in common is chemistry and the sun

    “I don’t see how I’m the pot calling the kettle black.”

    You are the one cherry picking facts. Wow you are a metal midget.

    “I don’t recall myself talking about how much smarter I am nor my educational background being superior. ”

    Because your not and it’s not

    “My guess is that you lost your temper”

    LOL no.

    “and got on another rant defending your “informed” opinions while calling anyone who disagrees with you as having an OBVIOUS lack of knowledge. ”

    No I can disagree without thinking someone is stupid. Just in this case it happens to be so.

    “superior job offers”

    Wow you really don’t comprehend what you read do you? They were scholarship offers.

  26. Guyver says:

    57, That’s a very dangerous form of thought.

    A liberal Jsaid may take that line of thinking to justify outlawing the use of steam engines and forbidding the production of hydrogen-powered automobiles. 🙂

    Heck, the liberals are already whining that we’re all eating too much beef because cattle are a contributor to global warming. LOL http://tinyurl.com/ypge8m

  27. J says:

    # 59 Guyver

    Stop reading Michelle Malkin to find out what the science is on the topic. She is a liar!!! As are many of the other right wing pundits. She makes up facts and she sells them to dolts like you.

  28. Paddy-O says:

    #57 “You make an *excellent* point demonstrating how global warming is only going to get worse. … Water vapor is MANY times the greenhouse gas that CO2 is.”

    And clouds reflect sunlight including IR…

  29. bobbo says:

    #59–guyver==I used to be a human caused climate warming guy, now I’m on the fence.

    What kind of evidence would convince you of man caused global warming?

    What evidence do you think is convincing otherwise. Please don’t use weather on other planets.


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