Here is a conversation I had with Andrew Horowitz about today’s weird stock market. Horowitz runs the Disciplined Investor website and is one of the few personal money managers who I respect. We are going to do some podcasts together for investors who want to think for themselves. But more importantly we will be deconstructing the various investment sites. This chat is not produced and presented as-is for anyone who wants to listen in.
click ► to listen:
Right click here and select ‘Save Link As…’ to download the mp3 file.
Thanks for posting this. Not to get off-topic but I love that tech allows us to do this kind of thing. For me, listening in on a conversation like this is great (depressing subject-matter aside).
I highly recommend the book “What Are Stocks Really Worth?”:
http://www.analyticalbooks.com/
If your serious about discussing this, I may manage to engage my brain.
Disclaimer: I feel that corporations should not have the rights of an individual in the USA.
Oh right.. How does all this happen in a September without blaming the terrorists?
Woody Allen’s comment in the 1060’2 was that a “Stock Broker is a professional that invests your money till its all gone”
Just the names and titles change
In the case as well they become even more unscrupulous with time
Thanks for the listen John. These are very troubling financial times!
If we had more Reporters like John, we would be much better off as a nation!
How does the “authority” to make these deals pass from Congress to some members of the Administration? I thought only Congress could pass spending bills and what else is a “loan” if money for such contingencies is not in the original funding/authorization?
Further, even if that is all ok somehow, who in the world can do the due diligence to properly evaluate these deals? That process normally takes months with back and forth. Not “overnight.” The difference between x or y Billions of Dollars guaranteeing a or b Billions of Dollars of underperforming debt is a swing of Billions of dollars.
In the end, all this mismanagement/bad regulation will result in devalued dollar.
More mystical than all these manueverings is when the rest of the world will pull the trigger. How many years in a row can the Euro and Yuan gain value against the dollar before the dollar becomes wallpaper?
The dismal science.
5 months left for W.
What else can he screw up ?
@8: The FED isn’t an agency of the US Govt. I’ll play smartass to your righteous indignation.
#10–Bryan==you do understand what a “?” means?===it asks a question. Questions are asked to receive information. Hard to be indignant when asking for info. So, whats the FED==and if its not a gov agency, how does it commit governmental funds? etc.
Listened to the rest of the audio and now I will get indignant. There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and then stock market analysis. I felt I was listening to some astrologer with the market “singing” to me.
I love experts who are great at explaining all the intricacies of what happened last year/last month/yesterday. But the hallmark of real knowledge, how predictive is the song that is song???? Not so much. Where shades, you won’t get blinded by the pretty lights.
bobo, Bush considers Himself His Exhalted Highness who Talks with God, and has no need of a Congress, and considers our Constitution “Just a God-damned Piece of Paper”, and “our” Congress REFUSES TO IMPOSE THE DISIPLINE OF IMPEACHMENT, so Bush continues his BULL IN A CHINA SHOP RAMPAGING !!!
and Lou, Don’t ask “What else can he screw up ?” – Bush will show us, and it won’t be pretty !!!
#12–Jim==yea, I’d like to see the media get him on record as to the virtue of these bailouts and how he thru Graham is not directly responsible for this in relaxing the regulations.
Yes, we can also blame Clinton, but all such charges would redouble to Bush who had years to fix the errors of Clinton.
Yes “Government is Bad” so lets deregulate and when capitalism subcumbs to greed as a DIRECT result, lets bail out the CEO’s and keep their golden parachutes in place.
Note the regulated Banks are the ones buying the stock of the de-regulated Brokerage Houses?
More common than over regulation is deregulation/lack of enforcement leading to greater harm than ever caused by over regulation.
So–republicans are the party that cheat the people to favor the very rich, the dems are the party that cheat the people to favor the middle class and poor. As long as you are going to be lied to and cheated, where do you want the benefits to fall?
#8 “How does the “authority” to make these deals pass from Congress to some members of the Administration?”
The Constitution gave the sole right to coin money to the Congress. Congress gave away this right…
Strictly speaking they can’t do this (see line item veto for example).
Well, what do you expect when you have corrupt old grifters like Barney Frank and Chris Dodd running banking in the House and the Senate?
#11 – Bobster
>>–Bryan==you do understand what a “?” means?
>>===it asks a question.
Yes===,but ==you== have the discomfiting habit of ==putting== a =”?”= at the ==end== of a declarative =sentence=. ‘No=one” can tell whether it’s a ==statement== or a ===question===.
====You==== should have a =copyeditor= check your =posts= before you ===post=== them.
They might be more intelligible.
Look JCD and his little podcast has caused the market to drop another 340 points. LOL
Good luck everyone! It is going to be a fun ride.
There’s no such thing as a bear market. It’s ALWAYS bull.
Market tip heard in July 2008….
Oil will never drop below $100 a barrel.
Worse than that a lot of these fakes on Wall Street were predicting $200 and “never again see 100.” They’ll come up with more BS when it settles in at $65 or less.
John, I’m waiting for the ‘toilet paper’ strategy. They’ll make barrels half their size with no change in price (and still call them barrels).
Then of course, in a few years they’ll come out with double barrels. More economical, you know.
Very interesting! I am more convinced than ever that the Stock Market and ‘investing’ in general is nothing more than gambling at the biggest casino ever…
You know if you really study CRAPS and learn how to play the odds you will have a better chance at getting ahead. At least you can calculate what they are.
I guess the only sure thing is to invest in yourself and grow some kind of business.
Wait till November! WOW!
Oil should be at around $110 a barrel. $140 was an overreaction, $90 is an under reaction. This extreme volatility in oil prices has been going on for the past 3 years since world crude oil production has stagnated at 74 million barrels per day.
Gold is jumping in price today. That’s a typical fall back when the market gets tough.
Stocks, bonds, long-short quant funds, implosion, blah,blah,blah
I’m just preparing for the singularity:
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306
ArianeB, If oil was $50/ barrel, they would still be making a nice profit.
I don’t think you need a Horowitz to tell you that Mattress of America seems to be the wisest investment choice now…
BACKING corps, is stupid.
They arent being HELD responsible for their OWN actions.
BIG CEO’s can RAID a corp, and run off with the money, and the Gov. Bails them out??
Very few corps are being regulated..EVEN when they are, they are getting around the regulations.
#27 Oil has nothing to do with “profit” its about supply and demand. Since February, supplies have been declining. Total world exports are down.
This caused the dramatic jump in price this spring, and the resulting dramatic jump in gas prices.
June hits, people scale back on vacations, gas demand declines. Reports of how much of a decline come out just before the july margin call, and everybody sells. Speculators trying to ride the oil jump, lose money.
Supplies and exports continue to decline especially Mexico, Russia and Nigeria, but so does demand. The number of people burned in July is keeping money out. Gustav and Ike have caused gas to go up again, and yet oil futures fall still. This weird anomaly can’t last forever.