Analysis: why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters to the West – Times Online — My friends in the UK are baffled by the fact that this story is not being pounded much by the USA media. Are we in bed with the Russians on this deal? Or what? I’d like to see someone come up with a definitive and believable rationale for this conflict. Any takers? No knee-jerk crap, please.
America and Britain are closely involved in providing military assistance to the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.
If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Moscow’s influence in the region and embolden other former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan.
Yes, “it’s all about the oil” is one credible explanation.
#24
Cute!
I can’t wait for NoAgenda this week. Adam is toast man.
#24
-lol, so true. -but i bet ya Westinghouse or JP Morgan would still figure a way to “put a meter on it”
-s
#32. this could only be a new cold war if the US decides to make it so.
and there is no reason to make it so – if Soviet control of Georgia was not a threat to the US from 192x-91, why should Russian aggression against Georgia be a threat in 2008?
pipelines? meh. how much oil does the US get from the region? not a lot I would bet. we buy lots of oil from hostile states (Venezuela, forex). business is business.
Time Magazine Czar of the Year Vladimir “Dobby” Putin has every right to run herd over his people and purge them like previous Czars have done. Dangerous political ideals such as freedom and the US is too close to Russian assets must be dealt with harshly and …
Britain had their Empire and retired. US needs to theirs retire also.
Kudos to Mr Dvorak who understands this.
Why is it all about oil?
Since when does the US buy Russian oil?
I thought that was why we invaded Iraq?
In fact, the US gets most of its “foreign” oil from Canada.
Europe gets a lot of oil from Russia, and natural gas too.
Has anyone bothered to look at a map? An oil pipeline going through Georgia (from Russia) will end up in Turkey or Azerbaijan.
Russia has plenty of pipelines with more direct routes to Europe.
get out a map and take a look at where this is, and more importantly what resources (including transport of resources) are involved. Like every other war throughout all of history it’s about resources. Period.
#35 The Russians want their empire and world influence back. They are not waiting for the US to give them permission.
Sorry, this isn’t about oil. This is about 2 things: 1. Russia trying to regain influence and/or fear and 2. Making sure America’s missile defense system in Europe never happens. Think about it. They take Georgia. They show all these little break-away republics how the U.S. will NOT come to their aid if attacked. They’ve proven it. Then, when the U.S. comes calling to install the system, they take a powder. Russians are great chess players and they know for a fact there is nothing we can do about this. If we press too hard, we could be involved in a conflict with them and NO ONE WANTS THAT. Watch WarGames. You can’t chance a nuclear conflict over Georgia. In fact, they know we won’t chance a nuclear conflict unless we are directly attacked or MAYBE if the U.K., France, or Germany is attacked. They’re just showing this to Europe so that everyone trying to be friends with the U.S. will think twice. It will work, unfortunately. You gotta hand it to ’em, they are smart. We aren’t dealing with a 3rd world country here.
Rick Cain, nicely put. One explanation (to JCD’s question at the top) is that the Bush administration just got smacked up the side of the head by Putin and Co. without even realizing it. Pretty damn embarrassing.
I’ve been reading about this on a myriad of news sites and I think I’ve figured out what this is all about now- it’s time for me to finally meet a Russian beauty! At least the banner ads seem to think so…
Part of it is the pipeline terminal. That has been covered already.
Today the a Russian gov’t guy claimed that Georgia was cleansing ethnically. This is because when the US got involved in Yugoslavia we chose sides against the Serbs, who worked for the Russians.
In that conflict, and in that part of the world, and generally: the real issue is those with guns vs. those without guns. In Yugoslavia the gangs were working together to relieve the unarmed populace of their life savings.
Since we took sides there Russia is taking sides here. This has the potential to remake the region into a new state-sponsorship gameboard, al a Africa during the cold war. Look at Georgia, and its breakaways; Moldova and its breakaways; remnants of Yugoslavia and their breakaways; Turkey and its possible breakaways; those nutty Albanians; the Armenians or Azeris.
This area around the Caspian and Black Seas is,IMNHO, the region most likely to produce problems in the near future.
#9
Spot on.
Russia warned this from the very beginning when forces began to build on the border. It quite clear that she would defend her citizens in Ossetia. Saakashvili was an idiot in launching the offensive, and his methods were extremely underhanded when hours previously he had declared ceasefire. I don’t know what he was playing at – did he think Medvedev would waver with Putin at Beijing? Was he counting on NATO support? Saakashvili’s actions were the height of stupidity.
“the reason for the american news blackout until today (monday)”
WTF are you talking about? This has been big news since Friday. Paranoid much?
#40. they can try. Russia is basically an overgrown petro-state. Venezuela with an aging nuclear arsenal. their ambitions to dominate the states of the former USSR pose no real threat to the US or the West, since the Russians depend upon oil sales to finance their “greatness.”
If the West decides to make a concerted effort to break our dependence upon oil, and we can drive the prices back down, you will see a return to the Russia of the Yeltsin years – helpless.
And I can’t feel much sympathy for Europe’s dependence upon Russian pipelines or others vulnerable to the Putin squeeze. the US has been warning them about that since the 80s, when they decided to start buying natural gas from the USSR.
#47
Ya and if Russia decides to sell all it’s US dollar-backed assets (they hold billions in Fannie Mae mortgaged backed bonds) and decide to only accept rubles and Euros in future sales of oil and nature gas, the U.S. will be helpless. How did you think Bush is paying for the Iraq war.
Dear John,
this conflict is not about oil. It is payback for Kosovo. When once Kosovo was part of the Serbia started its separation process, Bill Clinton sent US Air Force with NATO marks in order to protect Kosovo’s civilians from Serbian’s atrocities. Few months back Condi Rice and US supported its announcement of independence from Serbia and yet some of the EU countries still do not recognize Kosovo. Now we have exactly same situation in Ossetia and Abchazia, where Russia supports separatists and rest of the world does not. Georgia just acts to protects its sovereign borders and integrity where Russia acts exactly as US did in Kosovo in 1999. We’re getting pay back and pretty bad one since Georgia supported US in Iraq and let US use its military bases.
What we can do? Nothing, just bitch about that because everything else will cause open military confrontation with Russia.
What will Russia do? Everything they can to get rid of current government and deploy their own puppet government in order to have a greater access to Black sea and control more of the region.
Considering overall situation we are getting f.cked in our behind pretty good and with all the honesty we underestimated Vladimir Putin as good chess player. Oil, oil pipelines, etc. is just a by-product of this operation, just a sweet cherry on top of the very good cake for Russians. Who looks like a fool now, dear Condi?
Has anyone been to google maps (not earth) and noticed that all the road info for Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan is ‘missing’?
Anyone play out this conflict in a tom clancy game about 7 years ago…?
Not long ago Putin ‘admitted’ that Russia is traditionally not a society of liberal values like Western countries. It’s almost as if he were saying, “Look, we’re just not as civilized as you guys. Get used to it.”
One would hope, though, that he’s smart enough to understand that owning resources does not necessarily lead to coercive influence over other cultures (as the Saudis learned back in 1973).
Blowback.
President Bush has “warned” Putin/Russia…this can’t be good or, end well.
We’re helping the Muslims in this case because our government is so pro-Muslim. Our government promotes Islam in our schools here in the US and over seas, it’s easy to see that the elites intend for Islam to become the world religion.
Be promoting Georgia independence it should make it easier for a Pan-Islamic country to arise and bring about the movement of our world government to the middle east. Already they are building and buying their mansions and retreats there.
How many years do you think the US has for any independence? Most of the world push for Globalism comes from the US Eastern Elites of the North, they same people pushing the North American Union. Doubt this, doubt the NAU then you aren’t reading what the elites freely publish.
“Ya and if Russia decides to sell all it’s (sic) US dollar-backed assets (they hold billions in Fannie Mae mortgaged backed bonds) and decide to only accept rubles and Euros in future sales of oil”
What’s the Euro been doing lately? And the Dollar? Do you have any clue?
The sweet nectar of paranoia is washing down the throats of the leftards.
Tell us, Slick. If the petro-thugs like Putin decide to “teach us a lesson,” what do you think will happen to their investments?
#48. creditors cannot manipulate debtors on that scale. the Russians have a fire sale on US bonds, they have to sell at a discount, they will lose their shirts.
and revaluing oil in Euros causes market upheaval and nobody wins, plus that gives Brussels power that the Russians would rather they not have.
The sovereign nation of Ossetia is invaded by an aggressor neighbor, Russia comes to their aid, and then somehow they’re the bad guys? It’s as if we’ve sunken back into Cold War thinking where Russia is always the enemy, no matter what.
QB, I don’t think you even understand the conflict. The Georgians launched this attack, not the Russians. How could Russia have planned for this to take place during the Olympics?
#9 Proud Alien — You got it right. It’s that straightforward.
While I”m sure that oil has something to do with this situation, it is clearly not the only favor. This is about breaking or reestablishing Russian hegemony in the region. We’ve managed to wrest from Russia most of what they took during World War II and if Georgia becomes a free state, Russian control over the region will be crippled. In addition, I’m sure the Russians were well aware of Georgia’s desire to be part of NATO. Putnam’s only window to trounce Georgia was now.
#57
That logic works only if Russia defends Ossetia and nothing more. However it would appear that they are trying to do more than simply defend an attacked nation. They are trying to take Georgia.
Putin has givin his buddy George the perfect storm to blow in a repug victory. The Progressives been slicked again.
Short answer. People suffering.
#61: OK! I think the head, but I am not going to do a flock of sheep!
The Times article is now 4 days old, but it pretty much predicted what would happen if Georgia took military action against Ossetia. Now the comments are full of Russians repeating the reports of Georgian atrocities against Ossetian civilians that were used to justify the Russian invasion.
Questions:
– did Georgian forces attack Ossetian and/or Abkhazian civilians?
– if it did, has the Western media ignored it?
This is important to clear up because the Russian media is equating their actions with NATO actions in Kosovo. If Georgia was the aggressor, they would have a point. Right now, however, I get the impression that we are not getting the whole story, from the media in any country.
I totally agree with # 49 Martinko77.
It seems to me that the US Government (and GWB in particular) was caught with it’s pants down by the Russians.
Also, Condoleezza Rice is supposed to be the Russian policy expert. She is the person that GWB ought to immediately send to Moscow in order to show his displeasure with their actions. And what does he do? He sends a _MID-LEVEL_ State Department official, Matt Bryza, to the region to back up mediation efforts which are being led by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France.
The handling of this sorry affair by the State Department makes Condoleezza Rice look helpless and powerless.
The US has ignored diplomacy in favour of big guns for a number of years now. This has been proven to be counter productive.
I recommend that you read Nicholas D. Kristof’s “Make diplomacy, not war” opinion piece at the International Herald Tribune http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/10/opinion/edkristof.php