Analysis: why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters to the West – Times Online — My friends in the UK are baffled by the fact that this story is not being pounded much by the USA media. Are we in bed with the Russians on this deal? Or what? I’d like to see someone come up with a definitive and believable rationale for this conflict. Any takers? No knee-jerk crap, please.
America and Britain are closely involved in providing military assistance to the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.
If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Moscow’s influence in the region and embolden other former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine and Azerbaijan.
Yes, “it’s all about the oil” is one credible explanation.
Russia has designs on a new empire, and the current leader is doing things very cleverly, baiting Georgia into a mistake.
Why should this matter for the West? Only because what happens here could dampen Russian enthusiasm for expansion, or it could cause it to keep going, until it goes after the NATO members like Lithuania, or Ukraine.
I love reading all the “who attacked who first” comments focused on the disputed Georgian provinces. Look at the big picture.
– The US, with NATO, have been humiliating the Russians for a few years now
– In one week Russia is now the dominant power in Eurasia again
– The Europeans now know the US (and NATO) can’t handle the Russians
– Sarkozy is leading the response not Bush – and in reality Putin is calling the shots, he’s not even meeting Sarkozy
– The Russians have effective control over Georgia without having to occupy it
– The US media really didn’t care and was more interested in John Edwards and the democratic in-fighting
Overall, the US and NATO went down several notches and Russia went up. Putin made Bush and the US administration look like uncomprehending idiots face-to-face, and that wasn’t lost on anyone, especially the Chinese. Obama (who I like better) looked stunned.
This was not a knee jerk reaction by Putin and the Russians. These guys plan a lot and when the circumstances are right they pull the trigger. Reading comments above it’s obvious that many here underestimate the Russians (e.g. Venezuela with oil). They are not wholly evil or good, but they are Russian.
Translation? Americans see everything in black and white. Russians see everything in gray. It wasn’t a total victory or defeat but momentum has shifted completely.
First, a few facts.
Georgia separated from the USSR in 1989. Since South Ossetia was already part of Georgia, it became part of the new sovereign country of Georgia.
Georgia declared that Georgian was the official language. This was mainly to replace Russian influence and ethnicity, but also to reduce the number of smaller tribes so prevalent in the Caucasus.
The region of South Ossetia ask the Georgian Legislature to give their region more autonomy. Instead the Legislature banned all regional parties. This was interpreted as a deliberate attempt to remove all Ossetian nationalism.
Consequently, South Ossetia declared themselves independent from Georgia and under Russian control. They boycotted Georgian elections. In turn, Georgia did not recognize the break away region as a State or as pert of Russia. Russia did not recognize S. Ossetia as independent or a member of their Russian Federation either. Georgia declared a December 1990 election null because the vote was only allowed to Ossetians and not Georgians as well in the area.
The result was ethnic violence broke out and both sides lost many civilians before order was restored. Up to 150,000 Ossetians and Georgians fled the area, most have not returned. It was only Russian blustering that halted the violence. A joint peace keeping force was established consisting of both Georgians and Ossetians along with Russians. Some areas were under Georgian control and some left under Ossetian control.
Jump ahead 12 years to about 2004. Smuggling has become a real problem. Other violence, including kidnappings, bombings and armed robbery against Georgian civilians increased. In an effort to protect its sovereignty, Georgia increased their military presence in the area and tried to put down the violence. Russian and Ossetia peace keepers resisted the Georgian efforts.
Georgia also became worried about the increasing Russian economic and military influence in the area. The EU was asked by Georgia for some troops to monitor the ceasefire and Ossetian aggression. The EU declined.
NOTE: This Russian aggression was witnessed by Senator Dick Luger (R IN), at the time Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He and fellow Senator Barrak Obama (D IL) were held incommunicado in Russia for several hours during this fact finding trip even though they possessed Diplomatic visas allowing their free travel. Lugar’s complaint’s to the State Department were not answered.
In order to curry favor and possibly American and NATO support, Georgia contributed troops to the Iraq invasion. They also applied for EU and NATO membership as a counterbalance to Russian aggression and dominance.
In the mean time Russia repeatedly violated Georgian airspace and occasionally sent patrols deep inside Georgia proper. Ossetian violence against Georgians still living in S. Ossetia worsened. Finally, Georgia invaded its own territory to protect its citizens.
And here we are today.
So while Georgia did not act the best towards the Ossetians, they did not attempt any ethnic cleansing either. Ossetians, backed by the Russians, have been the aggressors in the conflict.
No country to date has recognized South Ossetia as an independent country and all still recognize it as part of Georgia. BUT, S. Ossetia really wanted to re-join the Russian Federation as an autonomous state.
Another reason why this matters to the West is it highlights Barack Obama’s inexperience to the whole world He calls for a Security Council Resolution. So we go from George Bush to a guy who doesn’t even know that Russia has a veto at the UN.
MikeN, are you talking about the Bill Richardson interview? I agree, that was pathetic. Meanwhile, the commodity and forex traders are tallying up the score.
Answer:
1) Georgia is close to stuff we care about, like Iraq
2) Oil and oil pipelines
3) War hurts everybody
Still, Bush will only much this up, if he tries to get involved.
>> MikeN
>> Another reason why this matters to the West is it highlights Barack Obama’s inexperience to the whole world
For sure, Barak could tell you a long list of important facts about Georgia and McCain would confuse it was the state.
#68, Lyin’ Mike,
What??? You don’t care about McCain peach supply being cut off???
Mr. Fusion, nice summary.
Good finds soundwash..thanks
here is my take on the US government’s response to this war.
We (prez/state dept/defense dept) will blather and yell around the capitol and in the UN, even call for UN resolutions to stop the fighting (which Russia will veto). A lot of sound and fury to show we are aware of it and it concerns us. But in the end, we will not do anything concrete to inhibit the Russians because we see Georgia as in the Russian sphere-of-influence. We expect the same response from Russia if we were to invade a country in Central America. We may even expect the same from Russia if GWB were to take a swipe at Venezuala before he leaves office.
I found it very interesting that Putin was at the Olympics one minute, then in the middle of Russia’s offensive the next. Either the Russians have made great leaps in the ability to mount an operation from a standing start, or the have been planning just such an operation for a long while.
I would be very interested to know if our satellites picked up on any preparations and if this info was shared with the Georgians, if only to say be carefuland don’t poke the bear. The again, maybe all our intelligence assets are trying to locate Osama bin Laden and couldn’t be tasked to anything else.
Read this by Mark Ames: http://exiledonline.com/georgia-gets-its-war-onmccain-gets-his-brain-plaque/
And then read this by the War Nerd: http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-south-ossetia-the-war-of-my-dreams/
Notice that neither article makes silly references to “US-ally” or “Imperialist” countries.
Who the heck vacations in Crimea? Karl Rove does..
http://tinyurl.com/5zadcc
… ight before a war breaks out that McCain thinks will help his candidacy.
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article, but I guess I just need to check some more resources regarding this, because it sounds interesting.