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Worldwide investments in the production of Photovoltaic (PV) cells will rise to the same level as those for semiconductor manufacturing by 2010, due to booming demand for solar energy, according to iSuppli Corp.
Global production of PV cells is expected to rise to as much as 12 Gigawatts (GW) by 2010, up from 3.5GW in 2007. By 2010, as many as 400 production lines in the world that can produce at least 1 Megawatt (MW) of PV cells per year will be in place, representing a four-fold increase from about 90 to 100 production lines in 2007. Factories capable of 1GW of annual PV production also will be established in the future to ensure continued strong delivery of PV cells to the market.
The market for PV cells is estimated to grow by 40 percent annually until 2010, and 20 percent beyond, said Dr. Henning Wicht. Nearly all market participants plan to increase their sales by a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 40 to 50 percent during the next few years. Wicht noted that heavy investments will be required to finance the expansion of PV cell production. Each PV factory will require an investment of $500 million and more, will employ as many as 1,000 workers per site, and will generate annual revenue of $1 billion per year or more, putting them into the size, cost and employment range of semiconductor fabs…With these cost reductions, many regions throughout the world will soon reach grid parity…a point at which PV electricity costs the same or less than power derived from the electrical grid. PV grid parity is expected beginning 2012 in nations where sunshine is plentiful and constant, and 2018 in areas of the world with adequate or medium sun exposure.
The people who build and profit from power generation know where the future lies. How long will it take the public and politicians to catch up?
What? No ignorant dweeb here, yet, to prate about coal?
Which only works, of course, if you’re the guy who owns/sells the coal.
Here is my dream for energy.
Cheap plentiful photovoltaics combined with high energy density long lasting storage batteries.
For most of the country, it would be possible to run your house and medium range electric car entirely off the grid.
I hope this happens, and none too soon.
Lots of “green” talk but coal and uranium are still king. Probably cleaner and greener from start to finish than either the semiconductor or solar cell biz. plenty cleaner i’d bet.
There certainly are plenty of VC$ going into PV here in the US.
I’m afraid domestic battery designs are still mostly in the hands of the national labs – which means the Pentagon – so they’ll cost four times more than anything from China and double Japanese designs.
The Arabs played their cards wrong on this one. In the past they would let the price of oil rise long enough to make a killing but would then smartly pull the price down whenever world economies started to suffer or when alternative fuel talk simmered to a boil. I think the latest rise has pushed us past the tipping point for good and the middle east economies will be suffering tremendously in 10 years as a result. The world will be a very unstable place when that happens.
#5 You may be right, But I still see oil demand going up ( China especially) even with alternative energy sources. The Oil companys which have a large equiptment investment are probably salivating at the chance to provide oil at prices that are magnitudes higher than what the rate of return was originally predictied on it’s manfacturing and drilling facilities.
#5 agreed! The tipping point to develop new energy sources has come.
The combination punch of:
(1) Obscene prices
(2) Environmental factors
(3) Secret lost that US Military subsidizes oil
It is amazing the amount of innovation already taking place with clean energy. Too bad Dick and Bush blew the opportunity but, hey, what do expect from republicans?
Ray Kurzweil seems to think that solar will be able to provide 100% of the U.S. power requirements within 20 years.
So screw global warming.
Forget about changing to CFC light-bulbs.
Crank up the air-conditioner.
Problem solved.
This is exactly what I figured would happen. #8 look up nanosolar.com, there is innovation going on in solar.
#3 Coal and Nuclear are neither cleaner or greener than solar or wind. They are simply more reliable… for now anyways. Solar and wind require ideal weather conditions, but use very little in the way of natural resources once they come online.
What we are seeing today is the end of cheap oil, and there are no alternate fuels at all that could possibly replace the amount of oil we use. Ultimately we have to say goodbye to the internal combustion engine, and embrace the electric motor.
If we replace oil with coal (a much bigger producer of greenhouse gasses btw), we are just looking at “Peak Coal” in another 50 years down the road anyways. Future uranium mining output is questionable as well.
Best now to invest in renewables. Thermal solar plants are very efficient. 60 square miles of thermal solar plants could supply the whole US with electricity. PV solar is not as efficient, but has the advantage that they can be placed anywhere. Lots of vacant rooftops available for small solar farms.
Ariane you are absolutely right. Nanosolar.com is a really big deal. If they are producing 1 Gigawatt worth of panels at their one factory and they do some sort of franchise thing on the tech, it will change things in a big hurry.
I saw some interesting nano technology for solar cells. The nano fabric stood vertically providing more surface for collection. This is very promising and I hope the bible thumping fuckwits don’t find some verse in their fairy tales that is against this.
Hey, that last sentence was just to keep parity for Mister Mustard.
Nano solar has become the front runner since it is on a predictable course to be on par with coal fired electricity (kind of the benchmark) in few short years.
The types of things contemplated are solar collector paint, ashphalt, plastics, etc. Durable and cheap to implement.
The big thing that has to happen is an overhaul the electricity collection/distribution system since our infrastructure has been designed around big bang electricity production with a one way distribution system. A new system will be more like the internet with no centralized control and “packet routing” for surges and diminishment. One neat idea is to use electric cars as battery/balancing systems when they are plugged into the grid.
What good are these cells when it is cloudy?
In fact, then you have to get your power from a regular power plant. And power plants, can’t just turn on in an instant.
Wind and solar have huge structural problems that need to be solved. Either figure out how to store energy or how to get regular plants online quick.
Time to put on the ol tin foil hat. I had some friends who got into the solar biz in the late 70s. At the time gas prices were high and energy sorces unstable. Seemed like the perfect time to make a killing on a new tech. As we know now it did not happen. I do not know why solar has not droped in price as have practicaly all other forms of electronics. PCs,TVs, evan music players are cheaper and more reliable. What is it about solar that defys this trend? I keep hearing batterys but I have a watch that has been running for ten years on the same batterys. I am no engn. but it seems something is not adding up.
You blast coal, truck it, and burn it. Pretty straight forward. By the time youre done building panels, regularly replace battery banks that use chemicals from all corners of this planet…. “green tech” tech just isnt green.
Unless of course you delude yourself into thinking that its not that dirty once it’s installed and ignore how they were built and will be disposed of.
For those in the markets, you may have just missed the coal train, but uranium is still lagging ;P. glta
Free energy from the sun! What’s not to like?
I can see the day when “solar rights” to land are bought, sold & leased (& cheated) separately, just as mineral rights are now.
For night-time and cloudy day storage, I always liked the water tower strategy — make hay, or rather, pump water while the sun shines, then use the water hydroelectrically at night.
ArianeB said:
“What we are seeing today is the end of cheap oil, and there are no alternate fuels at all that could possibly replace the amount of oil we use.”
I’m afraid that’s right. Future generations will look in awe (and maybe a little shame) at our profligacy. Even if fusion comes to be, we will likely never have as much energy to waste as we do today.
I’m mostly worried this will squeeze silicon prices and boost manufacturing cost for electronics
Check out Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) technology as a storage technology, batteries not needed.
As for batteries check out A123 Systems, they are working on lithium-ion iron phosphate, LiFePO4, to create a more stable cathode