By SN
Friday April 25, 2008
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Slate – Chris Wilson – April 24, 2008:
Even as Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama in pledged delegates, the popular vote, and number of states won, she has made it clear that she plans to stay in the race for the nomination. All of which brings me to this logical conclusion: It is time for Barack Obama to drop out.
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Obama drops out next week, stating that although he could almost certainly win the nomination by fighting it out until the convention in August, he is simply not willing to drag the party through a battle that will cripple its chances against John McCain. He then pledges to help support Sen. Clinton in her bid—with full knowledge that she will not take him up on the offer.
In one stroke, Obama will regain his messiah creds by making the ultimate sacrifice for the good of the party. His followers will be furious. The mere mention of Clinton’s name will provoke unspeakable acts. They will abandon Clinton in numbers sufficient to hand McCain the election in November.
McCain will be eminently more beatable in 2012. Demographics will continue to shift in Obama’s favor as his 14- to 17-year-old supporters come of voting age. Anyone foolish enough to challenge Obama for the nomination—and don’t rule out Clinton—will go nowhere. Obama’s utopian vision for a Democratic party unified around him will be complete.
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I’ve asked this before… Are their ‘odds’ in Las Vegas on this thing?
I wonder what the ‘pros’ think.
I now think it doesn’t matter at all who wins.
This ‘democracy thing’ is all an illusion.
really…
Four years of McCain? And the supreme court moves irrevocably to the right. Bye bye right to choose. Bye bye separation church and state.
@31:
The odds according to Intrade:
Next President of United States:
Obama 47.0%
McCain 40.1%
Hillary 12.9%
Democratic Nominee:
Obama 81.2%
Hillary 18.8%
Democratic Primaries:
North Carolina: Obama 97% chance
Indiana: Hillary 55.5% chance
West Virginia: Hillary 93% chance
Kentucky: Hillary 89% chance
Oregon: Obama 93.7% chance
Montana: Obama 88.7% chance
Puerto Rico: Not listed for trading (Hillary heavily favored).
I expect this to last until June 3. There is a small chance it is “over” on May 6 if Obama wins both Kentucky and Indiana, but I doubt Hillary would drop out so …
The reality: Obama only needs about 75 more superdelegate committments, barring a total collapse or major scandal.
With 300 left, unless he does something exceptionally stupid or has a giant skeleton in his closet, the unofficial word is that he about 50 unofficially committed super delegates by members of the House and Senate.
Kind of difficult to imagine him not getting 20 more.
“McCain will be eminently more beatable in 2012.” – So how is is McCain going to be in 2012??? 500 years old??
Who doesn’t think Obama has some skeletons in the closet? The guy was in the famously filthy Illinois legislature for years, representing Chicago’s slum dwellers. Hillary (the bitch) can’t say a word in public, but her wily husband can open up the can and give the superdelegates a nosefull when he wants to.
My feeling is that this will be Hillary’s only kick at the can, while clearly Obama is young enough and full of enough potential that he will have the horses to run again. But he can’t be perceived and possibly labeled as a quitter, for any reason.
So I believe Obama will ultimately be the Dem candidate but will lose to McCain who, with his pal the former Dem VP candidate, has managed to claim enough of the middle political spectrum.
Obama has the big inspiring “I have a dream” thing going for him but not knowing exactly what this really means will frighten off enough voters, especially in war time. I think in these uncertain and increasingly anxious years, enough voters will not be in a mood to experiment or gamble or ride on faith and they will seek relative safety, such as it may be.
But, as I have written before, if Hillary could somehow manage to run as the Dem VP candidate, the VP has historically been seen as a natural stepping stone to the Presidency.
More significant, an Obama/Clinton team would be so historic, so re-energizing that I think it likely would sweep McCain away; or at least certainly carry the day. This seems so obvious to me that I have to think the dream-ticket naysayers, like Pelosi, are just part of the orchestrated act. But if in fact the super-sized egos involved are not able to pull such a ticket together then the whole bunch of them should be damned to hell. And they, along with Dems everywhere, will have to live with Opportunity lost.
fwiw,
RBG
toast
This is the kind of crap I would expect from Fox News! They’ve been playing at this all through the primaries. When Hillary was leading the polls, experts would tell us why she can’t or shouldn’t win. Later when Obama’s ahead they tell us why he can’t or shouldn’t win. Painfully obvious.
#6
You will never see that in this form of government.
Cursor_
So, perhaps it’s time for a brokered convention to field a Democratic “dream team” against McCain.
I know, let’s pick Al Gore and Joe Lieberman! Oh wait, that’s been tried. Umm Al Gore and Steve Jobs? Gore and Steve Ballmer? The “MAC” and “PC” character from the APPLE commercials?
I’m still rooting for Edwards to enter at the pinch, at least as VP but that’s not likely either….
Another election where I may need to vote for “none of the above”….
“#18 chuck, Al Gore ran and lost, then he became the nominee. Same for Bob Dole and John McCain. John Edwards was a serious contender after losing.”
True, Al Gore ran and lost, then became the nominee (then won the election, but lost the electoral college). And the day after, everyone said he’d be the nominee for 2004. And yet, in 2004, he wasn’t.
And Bob Dole, ran, ran again and became the nominee, then lost the election to Bill Clinton.
As for John Edwards – he was never a serious contender.
My point is, Hillary knows they’ll never give her a 2nd chance. And Obama knows if he gives up now, it’ll be 8 years before he gets another shot.
In my opinion, Hillary ran for Senate to set herself up to run for President. Obama ran for Senate as a career move. The presidential run is a bonus. And McCain sees the presidency as a reward for his Senate career. I can’t decide who is the biggest opportunist.
32. I know, let’s pick Al Gore and Joe Lieberman! Oh wait, that’s been tried.
I think you are confusing that ol’ boring Al Gore with the new-improved, but-don’t-buy-yet, Oscar-Nobel-Boy Scout Merit Badge-winning rock star Al Gore.
RBG
So what if Hillary loses close in North Carolina, then wins Indiana narrowly, then Kentucky by 20 and West Virginia by 40? The superdelegates might start to quake if she then follows up with wins in Montana south Dakota, and a big win in Puerto Rico. She picks up maybe 238 delegatese vs 170 for Obama.
Obama will most certainly lose the general election. For the good of the Party he should drop out and become Hillarys’ Vice President. In 8 years he will have the experience to become President.
Why do you think Obama will “most certainly” lose?
A score of current polls shows Hillary & Obama pretty much neck & neck against McCain, including losses for Hillary by ABC, Reuters, NBC & Fox.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
This site is like the “Dog Pile” of polls showing a race much closer than I would have expected. Leading me to believe the Democrats and the Republicans could (& have?)run monkeys and the vote-split would be the same.
RBG
I think its going to happen!
http://www.usatomorrownews.com/politics/2008-elections/clinton-pressures-obama-to-drop-out/