I guess the big question is, if everyone starts to stockpile food, won’t that create an even bigger problem?

hoardfood.jpg

Wall Street Journal

I don’t want to alarm anybody, but maybe it’s time for Americans to start stockpiling food. No, this is not a drill. You’ve seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they’re a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.

Reality: Food prices are already rising here much faster than the returns you are likely to get from keeping your money in a bank or money-market fund. And there are very good reasons to believe prices on the shelves are about to start rising a lot faster.

“Load up the pantry,” says Manu Daftary, one of Wall Street’s top investors and the manager of the Quaker Strategic Growth mutual fund. “I think prices are going higher. People are too complacent. They think it isn’t going to happen here. But I don’t know how the food companies can absorb higher costs.” The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They’re all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%. These are trends that have been in place for some time. And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.

The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.

Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on. Kraft saw its raw material costs soar by about $1.25 billion last year, squeezing profit margins. The company recently warned that higher prices are here to stay. Last month the chief executive of General Mills, Kendall Powell, made a similar point. The main reason for rising prices, of course, is the surge in demand from China and India. Hundreds of millions of people are joining the middle class each year, and that means they want to eat more and better food. A secondary reason has been the growing demand for ethanol as a fuel additive. That’s soaking up some of the corn supply.

You can’t easily stock up on perishables like eggs or milk. But other products will keep. Among them: Dried pasta, rice, cereals, and cans of everything from tuna fish to fruit and vegetables. The kicker: You should also save money by buying them in bulk.

If this seems a stretch, ponder this: The emerging bull market in agricultural products is following in the footsteps of oil. A few years ago, many Americans hoped $2 gas was a temporary spike. Now it’s the rosy memory of a bygone age.




  1. hhopper says:

    Cripes. Way to start a panic.

  2. bobbo says:

    The google turns up many articles claiming the food price runup started in 2004 so I added that to my search string to find articles warming of the food price spike.

    Haven’t found that yet but the following pretty well shows the folly/deception in the corn based ethanol program, in case you missed it.

    From 2004===

    http://tinyurl.com/49nkm

  3. joaoPT says:

    Rising Economies, Biofuel, too damn much people… Finite world. That’s the equation.

  4. gquaglia says:

    Soylent Green is people!

  5. Steve-O says:

    #4 – And tasty too!

  6. James Hill says:

    #4, #5 – And great for population control.

  7. admfubar says:

    look for my new cook books
    Soylent Green – How to Serve Man
    and
    Asphalt Annie’s Cooking with Roadkill.

  8. Jägermeister says:

    It’s not bad… yet. If the consumers embrace ethanol cars… then it’s going to be bad.

  9. MotaMan says:

    Great for poor people control.

  10. Joe says:

    Its always funny when i read about these articles. Of course they want you to stock up on food supplies, They’re wall street speculators and the best way to drive up prices (and their pockets) is to scare the public into believing what they say is true. the really sad part is that average joe american six pack is falling for this hook, line, and sinker. what the hell is anyone gonna do with 20-40 pounds of rice, flour, cereal, or cooking oil. Seriously, when I had a small one pound bag of flour, it had bugs in it after a couple of months. twenty pounds of flour, joe six pack will use 1 pound tops and throw away the rest when he finds bugs that eventually come. Heck there was an article here on dvorak about destroying some of the excess pigs just to raise the price of pork meat

  11. Mr. Catshit says:

    The legacy of the Bush administration.

  12. The Pirate says:

    The Illuminati: War has become ho-hum, now what can we scare people with?

    The Illuminati ad executive: Food.

  13. doug says:

    #4-6. and Americans are now so richly marbled …

  14. Jenny Craig says:

    While people need to lose a few pounds anyway, I will require a bailout from the government if this food shortage persists.

  15. Grandpa says:

    Are you better off today than you were 7 years ago?

  16. Said says:

    I just stocked up at Burger King tonight.

  17. biofuelsmyass says:

    Am I the only one who noticed all the farm land chewed up by suburban housing developments? I have yet to see that as one of the causes of rising food prices.

    Biofuels my ass. Your house is parked in my corn field.

  18. Don says:

    There is not a food shortage in the US. It is just more expensive than a couple of years ago.

    It is gonna get ugly in some of those third world countries though as countries get nervous an stop exporting food. We haven’t seen the worst yet.

    On a brighter note, it should cure the outsourcing problem that this country is facing right now. If the poor kids in Pakistan starve to death, they won’t be able to make Nike shoes for fitty cent a day.

    Don

  19. gregallen says:

    Is this going to be another event where the world sees American panic at the slightest possibility of immediate denial of please and they conclude we are a bunch of spoiled sissies?

    The last time, when there was a chance of power outages in California, and everybody freaked. The world laughed at us.

  20. Busy says:

    I own a pizzeria and I had to deal with the rising cost of flour and Fry Oil. Last July I was paying around $22 for 35lbs of oil now it’s $29 and as high as $36. 50lbs of flour was just under $16 then soared to $32 the most I’ve paid is $26.75 now down to $25.35. I had to stock up and there was a point none was available.

  21. TheGlobalWarmer says:

    Just the beginnings of the legacy of the Church of Al Gore…

  22. Angus says:

    Ramen Noodles, Ramen Noodles…

  23. domc says:

    Go ahead, make the jokes. Typical Americans thinking that what is will always be.

  24. gas me up says:

    I’m not worried, there will always be plenty of ethanol to drink.

  25. Jamie says:

    Food prices go up.

    All you can eat buffets close.
    People buy less food, or at least buy what they need, and less junkfood.

    Might this lead to the thinning of America? I’m not thin by any means, but when I see some 450+ pound person eating more in one meal than I’d have in a week, it’s scary.
    And yes, the impact of this on the extreme poor isn’t a good thing, but that’s separate.

  26. OhForTheLoveOf says:

    #16 – Are you better off today than you were 7 years ago?

    No.

  27. Jamie says:

    Wait.

    A story about “Avoid the Rush before Food Riots” not far from a story about “Rush trying to incite Riots”? Coincidence?

  28. Rich says:

    # 5- Start scoping out your plumper neighbors on accounta you may need to invite them over for dinner later.

  29. OhForTheLoveOf says:

    #19 – There is not a food shortage in the US. It is just more expensive than a couple of years ago.

    So the food shortage isn’t in the US, per se… Just in the kitchens of the poor people who live in the US.

    #23 – Ramen Noodles, Ramen Noodles…

    Are dangerously unhealthy. Food costs may be rising, but don’t forget we have a health care crisis too.

    #26 – People buy less food, or at least buy what they need, and less junkfood.

    It’s all junkfood. Healthy is what is expensive.

  30. Jamie says:

    It’s all junkfood. Healthy is what is expensive.

    Okay, then, they’ll buy less junkfood at least?


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