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Jonathan Alter – Newsweek – March 5, 2008:
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The reporting of Hillary’s ‘wins’ is quite typical of the state of American education these days. Forget the stupid math stuff, what matters is the opinion of good looking people on the TV!
I used to think the media was smarter than the average joe.
Then there was Super Tuesday, with the talking heads abuzz about Hillary’s win in the large states — seemingly totally oblivious to the fact that delegate allocation is complicated (think of Nevada which Hillary won the popular vote, but got more delegates).
This is why both candidates find it very important to get their message out to put their spin on things.
Because 60%-70% of the people in the main stream media are little smarter than some guy off the street.
The next 6 weeks should be very interesting.
Assuming Obama wins Wyoming tomorrow and Mississippi on Tuesday as expected, it will be very interesting to see the attitudes of each of the campaigns and see how Obama rebounds or doesn’t rebound.
I think it is common knowledge that a large chunk of the Democratic party would like to be freed from the Clintons (Dean, Pelosi, Kerry, Kennedy, etc.) but they’ll have to battle the Clinton cronies (Rendell, Begala, McAuliffe, etc).
I am most interested in seeing how Obama reacts the perceive setback of Ohio/Texas this week and see if he resilient and can deal with the tougher questions he’s received lately.
But I expect a lot of bullshit in Pennsylvania, maybe even using police to suppress the black vote. Combined with the tactics to try seat Florida and Michigan as the results stand, it is difficult to make the argument that the Clintons are no better than the “right wing conspiracy” they deride.
Bad headline. She isn’t further behind in delegates. She picked up as many as 15 delegates. You may be right that she lost delegates in Texas, though realclearpolitics still gives her a 92-91 lead.
Alter’s math is bogus. She was down by 159 delegates before and now she’s down by 144 delegates. Neither candidate will have an outright majority, so the goal for her is to shrink the lead down and come up with a good argument for the convention to pitch to the superdelegates. Right now, Hillary is the leader in the popular vote and the electoral college vote. Obama’s lead in delegates is based on gaming the system. He lost Texas and Nevada, and ended up with more delegates!
With avid Clinton supporter Rendell being governor of Pennsylvania and with avid Clinton support Nutter being mayor of Philadelphia, prepare for smelliest election on national TV since Florida 2000.
The Clintons will try to use the government machinery to their advantage to suppress and f*** with Obama in that state.
It’ll be like voting in Alabama in the 1960s.
# 3 MikeN
“Alter’s math is bogus.”
Yes it is but that isn’t unusual for his type of reporting.
159 and 144? That depends on where you get your source. The range today is anywhere from 120 to 159. Again, depending on your source.
As it seems most of the media and the campaigns themselves have different counts on total pledged delegates. So anyone running around saying that she is mathematically prohibited from winning is either a time traveler or an idiot.
or a media pundit.
Hillary = Ultimate Fail
# 4 HMeyers
You make a lot of claims and have no real proof to back anything up. Is it perhaps that you just have a problem with women? Or is it maybe that you have some implanted hatred toward Hillary and her husband that you don’t really understand but refuse to evaluate where it actually comes from?
You guys slay me. Are you men that threatened by a strong woman that ANY man is a better choice? The MATH is that NEITHER will have 2025 delegates by the convention. Being female I don’t do fuzzy math.
The Obama Machine is in full gear now. I see that the media is still right up his bum as well. I have seen NO report about the Obama Lawyers maneuver to keep the polls open in “select” counties in Ohio. But I have seen loads of articles on his whining about not seeing Mrs. Clinton’s latest tax return.
Women will still have the last laugh in either case since Obama doesn’t sneeze without his wifes approval. She’ll be running the show if he’s elected and she’s even more Hillary than Hillary is.
Personaly I despise Nancy Pelosi because she is a REPUBLICAN in disguise. As for Kennedy, funny that you people who keep holding that sad old drunk up are the same ones that regularly dismiss him. Certainly Kerry nor Kennedy held any sway over their own state. I expect them both to be out of office soon because of it.
[Comment deleted – Violation of Posting Guidelines. – ed.]
This blog entry would be fine if that’s how our system works.
But it doesn’t.
Think super delegates, everybody.
The “math” which I’m hearing everybody talk about doesn’t matter this year; This is the year of Super Delegates.
This article explains the system pretty well:
http://tinyurl.com/2jhh48
In our system, 40% of the votes are un-pledged super delegates who have no obligation to anyone — not even the voters.
I assume Hillary and Obama are schmoozing with these super delegates and Hillary’s dreams of winning is by running a close race with Obama on regular delegates and using the super delegate system to push her to a win.
And, of course, people are going to cry “stolen election” — but that’s a totally untrue and unfair charge.
I agree that the system is stupid and not democratic enough but it’s not “stealing” to use it to win.
Personaly I despise Nancy Pelosi because she is a REPUBLICAN in disguise.
So, her and McCain even things out, then? Well, wrong houses, but let’s say we uncover all these D’s in R clothing, and vice versa…do we end up in the same place?
The Democratic party is a complete grease fire. Beyond the Super Delegate factor, do not forget Florida and Michigan. Imagine what will happen if Obama barely wins the delegate count including Super Delegates and Hilary convinces the DNC at the last minute to count Florida and Michigan which will pretty much give the nomination to Hilary. I expect that they would lose the Black vote with that maneuver. Ironically, if they do not count Florida and Michigan, those States may vote Republican in the Presidential election out of disgust. I can only imagine how many back room deals and bribes are going on right now.
Thank you SN. It appears you are way ahead of me (or about a month ahead) ;->
Hillary gained some delegates on Tuesday, but no where close to what she needs to win regular delegates. Now with 80% of the delegates already decided, and down by 5%, she needs much bigger leads in the remaining primaries to win.
THAT is what the headline is about.
I could see this over next week when Obama wins big in Wyoming and Mississippi, at least enough to erase the delegate gain in Ohio. It would prove Obama can bounce back, and would open up the opportunity for more superdelegates to come out for Obama.
kaeryn (#9),
Are you so threatened by African-Americans (blacks) that you will vote for ANY woman instead?!?
That is what the headline is ‘about,’ but it’s not what the headline means. She is not further behind, since she picked up about 10 delegates.
She may pull ahead of Obama when they “redo” the delegate voting in Florida and Michigan. She does well in blue states, but ya never know.