New York Times – March 2, 2008:
Top supporters of Senator Barack Obama, joined by at least one prominent Democrat yet to endorse a candidate, put pressure on Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday to bow out of the presidential race unless she scores clear victories in the crucial big-state primary contests on Tuesday.
“I just think that D-Day is Tuesday,” said Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico…
Senator Kerry of Massachusetts, the unsuccessful Democratic presidential candidate in 2004, said Mrs. Clinton would need more than narrow victories to remain a viable candidate.
“Hillary Clinton has to win a big victory in both Ohio and Texas,” he said on the CNN program “Late Edition.”
“It’s not just winning a little bit,” he said. “In order to close the gap on pledged delegates, she’s got to win a very significant victory.”
And Mr. Durbin, Mr. Obama’s fellow Democratic senator from Illinois, said the mathematics of the electoral calendar would make it very difficult for Mrs. Clinton to win the nomination even if she broke even with Mr. Obama in the delegates allotted Tuesday.
“If, in fact, there is no measurable change on Tuesday,” he said on Fox, Mrs. Clinton would need “extraordinary percentages” in the remaining contests — averaging 62 percent of the delegates yet to be decided, by his calculation, to go on to victory.
“I hope ultimately she makes an honest appraisal of her chances,” Mr. Durbin said. “I hope after Tuesday her decision is made on the basis of the unity of the party.”
Will Hillary be a presidential candidate or a running mate tomorrow?
I plan on crossing over and voting for her today because she will be easier to smackdown in November.
Here is how it’s all going to happen today:
1. Hillary wins Ohio by 13%
2. Hillary wins Texas by 3%
3. Obama wins Vermont by 15-20%
4. Hillary wins Rhode Island by 15-20%
Now, in that situation the delgates will actually be just about a draw.
So then what?
Will the race go on because Hillary won both Texas and Ohio? Or will it end because the delgates got nearly split with Hillary maybe doing +20 at best?
Hillary is 115 pledged delegates behind. If she nets +20, she is still 95 behind.
Obama will end up winning both Wyoming and Mississippi on March 8 and March 11.
Then there is a gap of SIX WEEKS until April 22 @ Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania appears to be favorable to Obama with the large urban populations in Philadelphia.
The question is .. if this primary is NOT over soon — like if it drags on to Pennsylvania — there is a real risk of damage to the eventual Democratic nominee and possibly bitter feelings that might impair the election.
So what’s going to happen after the above results occur?
I voted for her but will if Obama wins, it’s all good.
The important thing here is that Bush days are numbered until he is extradited to face criminal charges at the Hague. I urge him to flee the country now with his oil billions to some place that will take him.
Scary thought….
I will vote for Obama but only if Hillary is not his running mate!
@#3
I hear he’s friendly with the UAE. They’ll take accused child molesters, so I’m sure they’ll take a war criminal.
Dallas said: Bush days are numbered until he is extradited to face criminal charges at the Hague.
I enjoy your cynicism. You are a funny fellow.
Most likely Obama will win Texas, Clinton will take Ohio and Rhode Island, and wont come close to the 250 delegates she needs to mathematically stay in the race, yet she will stubbornly persist until she is pressured out next week.
She will NOT get a VP nomination from Obama, best case for Clinton is to replace Harry Reid as Senate Majority leader.
The VP slot will go either to Gov. Richardson or Tom Daschle.
McCain’s VP will be Mitt Romney, guaranteed!!
Hillary will win the nomination. If she knew she wasn’t, she would have dropped out. It’s just a circus friends.
Besides, how long can Obama avoid the assassins bullet?
/tinfoil hat off.
Hillary as the Veep? That would mean Obama is either naively stupid or ignorantly naive or courageous.
I say Yes she can! Yes she Can!
Where is mperkel? He shares plenty of letters with Mark Penn.
If Hillary gets slaughetered, she’ll keep running as an Independent.
If she keeps it close until the convention, she’ll screw around with the MI and FL delegates and superdelegates and try to steal the nomination. If she fails, she keeps running as an Independent.
Hillary is just like Al Gore in that she believes the Presidency is owed to her as her birthright. Bill is desperate to get back in the game with chubby intern action in the White House. The Democratic party is just a tool to the Clintons and they would happily annihilate it to get back to the presidency.
There’s no way she drops out.
Of course, #8 hinted at the possible scenario 3 where Hillary runs as VP, they get elected then a Clinton operative takes the sniper shot.
http://tinyurl.com/24p42z
Jay Cost explains how Hillary can win the nominationeven while trailing in delegates.
#11 – Excellent link. Since we’re totally screwed no matter which of the final 3 gets elected, I want as much entertainment as possible going in to the election. That piece make a good case for the Democrats right up to a knockdown convention. Good entertainment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate
So basically, if the party elders don’t like who the people choose, they can and will override the people and give their favorite candidate the nomination. Since we live in a bribeocracy, it really doesn’t matter much who “the people” want.
Looking on the bright side, thanks to the internet, I believe that if the people’s mandate is ignored again there will be enough outrage to put an end to the corruption. If that day is not upon us now, it won’t be much longer.
As an aside I am heartened by the recent events in Germany, where the court ruled in favor of individual privacy over draconian security measures much like our own Patriot Act. We need to kill THAT monster here as well.
The DNC and Super Delegates realize that if they abuse their votes then the party could very well fracture. That would ensure a Republican Presidency and possibly Congress. I don’t think any of them are that stupid.
After the election though, I would expect Howard Dean to be taking a hard look at the whole primary mess. I would expect him to alternating the primaries among the states and making all of them similar in form. Why should Iowa and New Hampshire be the first when it has been years since they voted a Democrat for President?
Either would make a great candidate. Although many people have a real hate for Hillary, I would think she would make a good V-P. A joint ticket would help heal any wounds which at this point I don’t see as that dangerous anyway. Those who are vehemently anti Hillary, wouldn’t vote for Obama either. I see Edwards getting the AG and Richardson Secretary of State. As good men as they are, I don’t see Dodd or Bidden leaving the Senate.
Say for the sake of argument that Obama wins the Democratic nomination and picks either Gov. Richardson or Tom Daschle for VP.
Would McCain best compete against this combination with Mitt Romney as VP?
or…
perhaps…
Condoleezza Rice as VP?
Crazy thinking here…
#16 – Dashhole? Why would either of them pick Dashhole?
Bret Favre just retired today, maybe he’d take a VP spot?
Yeah, Favre’s got a record that’s rock solid. If there’s even a hint of devisive talk or a deadlock at the convention, the only smart play is to put him in as the Presedential candidate, and the losers can do a coin toss to see who’s on the ticket with him.
So … I am I good or what?
Right on the money!
Now what happens?
>Iowa and New Hampshire be the first when it has been years since they voted a Democrat for President?
Man, 8 years ago and 4 years ago are such a long time.
These superdelegates get votes because the Dems didn’t like how McGovern won the nomination and got slaughtered. At the time, Hillary supported McGovern.
Richardson is good, but Edwards as Attorney General is absurd. The sum total of his law career is suing doctors and in court claiming to channel the dead babies like the other John Edwards.
It’s time for Barack Obama to drop out. He’s had his run, but now the time has come for him to recognize Hillary as the standardbearer.
She won California which has 55 electoral votes, New York with 31, Texas with 34, Ohio with 20, New Jersey with 15, Michigan with 18, and Florida with 27. That’s 200 electoral votes right there and she’ll end up with about 300.
The fact is NO HE CAN’T!
Some of you people I hope have day jobs, because as political prognosticators your lacking(HMeyers, Arieneb to name a couple) 🙂
Why the hell should Hillary drop out, so she’s 60 or 70 delegates behind, guess what folks, NEITHER Obama or Clinton can now win the nomination directly, they both need the Superdelegates, unless Hillary gets Michigan and Florida(and I’m betting she gets them).
Why not Obama mama drop out, he isn’t capable of winning the nomination outright either, why is the woman always expected to step aside for the man????
Hillary actually made a good point today in an interview with Katie Couric….she noted that she had won every large state primary across the nation. Obama has won a bunch of small state caucuses. But the important thing is, as she noted, is that SHE has won all the states a Democrat needs to beat a Republican this fall and that Obama has mostly won states where Republicans always win, and no Democrat has won since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So who is actually the one most likely to win for the Democrats in the fall…..you may not like her(i sure don’t) but watch those superdelegates once they realize she has a very good point.
#16…Steve….I think you can forget Romney. He brings nothing to a McCain ticket. From what I’m reading by the *pundits*(who know as much as we do)the list is Tom Ridge of PA. because he’s tough, and still very popular in P.a. and would just about make that state a sure thing for the Republicans…..Tom Pawlenty of Minn., because he’s more conservative than McCain and might bring Minn.(though he is slowly sliding down the list…..Gov. Crist of Florida because McCain really likes him, he’s very popular(though Florida is a lock for McCain this year), but the fact he’s single and there have been quiet whispers he’s gay/bi for years may keep him off the ticket)…then there’s Mark Sanford, Gov. of South Carolina(another state that will be a lock for the Republicans) because the consevatives love him….and the only woman on the list Gov. Sarah Pulin of Alaska(another solid Rep. state with or without her) because she is young, intelligent, conservative(pro-life, anto-gay marriage, but pro gay rights and she just signed a bill giving them domestic partner benefits) and she is an avid Caribou hunter…. 🙂
#23 You Republican lapdog.
The unreported headline from last night is this: Hillary Clinton is now mathematically out of the race. She can only win by superdelegate fiat, and if that happens there will be a huge rebellion in the democratic party that would guarantee a McCain win. A large block of superdelegates will be announcing soon that they are picking Obama due to his presumptive victory among regular delegates.
Obama will end up with at least 1360 regular delegates, Clinton at most will end up with 1230. 80% of the delegates have been determined, and because of the way the delegates are counted Clinton cant get enough of the remaining regular delegates (even with Pennsylvania and Florida) to catch Obama.
Obama will be the Democratic nominee guaranteed!