PERKEL SEZ:
I’ll take you on John. I’m willing to bet 2 things:
1) Hillary takes the Dem nomination.
2) Hillary wins a landslide victory.
And ….
My more longshot predictions:
1) McCain wins the Republican nomination. (Because like Bob Dole – it’s his turn.)
2) McCain picks Lieberman for VP.
Almost 1 million people whose votes don’t count went out to vote for Hillary. Yes, Florida voters might be naive locals, but they represent a cross section of the naive locals that make up the American voter.
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DVORAK RESPONDS:
Saying McCain winning the nomination is a longshot prediction shows to me that you have not been following any threads of reality, which is ironic since you run the Church of Reality. And, as for Florida… it’s a state of retirees and strippers.
The bet is simple with the terms of the bet to be discussed privately on an Indian reservation. My position is that any Republican will win the Presidency in 2008. Now that you bring up the landslide concept I’ll make a second bet if you can define “landslide.” And since you parroted that ludicrous idea that Lieberman (already a loser as VP candidate) would for some perverse reason be the VP chosen by McCain, I’ll make a third bet and give you odds on that one.
PERKEL RESPONDS:
Actually the Lieberman part is the long shot. I agree than McCain will be the nominee because for Republicans, it’s his turn. Just like in 1996 it was Bob Dole’s turn. I’m also going to predict that one week from today (Feb 6th) that Obama drops out of the race.
The Republicans might win if Obama is the candidate. He has the shortest resume of all the candidates and even though liberals will give him an affirmative action vote, the Republicans won’t. If Hillary wins, which I’m predicting, then Hillary clobbers McCain. He’s admitted, as Romney point out, that he doesn’t know anything about the economy and he sees the Iraq war lasting 50-100 years.
Vote for Ron Paul, the only one with any brains left or right??
As a Southerner, let me tell ya’ll how that works. Blacks will vote Democrat in the south, regardless of the candidate, including the aforementioned carbon rod. Whites tend Republican but aren’t crazy about McCain, however they can’t abide a Clinton in any flavor. A few whites might have gone for Obama, but Ted Kennedy soured that. As whites still outnumber blacks in every state, I believe, the Republican wins out, except in the few states with a measurable Hispanic voter population, in which case it’s a tossup. Ya’ll got that straight, now?
For those that quote the superior numbers of Democrats to Republicans that registered for the primaries, that will change dramatically should Hilary win the nomination. Hilary would be far more divisive of a President than Bush.
I think the Republicans can only win if McCain takes the nomination and I do not believe that he will. To win your party’s nomination, you have to appeal to your base constituents or said another way, the extremes within the party. However, to win the Presidency you have to appeal to moderates. McCain appeals to moderates far better than Hilary.
Watch out for those crystal balls. I’ve heard they’re slippery and may shatter when dropped (especially if one tries to juggle them).
#2 Greg, hang out over at the other DU or Kos, there’s a lot more uncontrolled hatred over there than on the “right”.
(The flaw with the 60’s and 70’s idea that “feelings should be expressed and not inhibited” is that anger wears grooves in the mind, and angry behavior becomes more common and uncontrolled. There’s a lot of anger expressed in those two forums. The Clintons made use of it before, and not everyone is waking up to how manipulative and self centered those two are. Obama is much more likely to be killed by a member of the political party that supported intolerance, slavery, and racism, the Democratic Party.)
#26 I am certain Obama will win some more southern primary(s), unfortunately those are Democratic primarys not the general election.
Geeze, if we get McAncient as prez, we will surely be in a never-ending war. Didn’t he say that he would keep the troops in Iraq for 5000 years, if need be?
Judging from the turnout at the Primaries, there have been a heck of a lot of more Democratic voters turning out than Republicans. I believe that this is a harbinger of what is to come. I surely hope that the Republicans have their posterior anatomy handed to them come November. The gods know they deserve it!
Do you know WHY, they (demo,reps) will win??
there ISNT A BOX for
“NONE OF THE ABOVE”…
do we REALLY have a choice?
John, you’ve underestimated how ruthless Bill is. It wouldn’t surprise me if to get sympathy for Hillary and win her the election, he arranged for Chelsea to be raped.
#39 – MikeN…Geez, I can smell your party affiliation from way over here. Now go change your shorts.
I’m going to also predict that a week from today, you heard it here first, that Obama will drop out of the race.
mperkel
I am with you on Hillary winning the presidency but I don’t think I would go as far as Obama dropping out of the race next Tuesday
Mike, they’ve pretty much kept Chelsea out of politics.
I expect Billary to try more ploys for the sympathy vote, but not through Chelsea.
If Obama does drop out then it’ll be no question on Hillary winning the nomination and the Presidency.
I’m sorry John but Perkel is right. GWB has screwed up the Republican image so bad in the past 8 years that the only way for them to win is change the laws to allow Arnold S. to run.
And I think you severely underestimate the “novelty” vote. The vast majority of the voting public doesn’t really give a damn about politics. They will vote for Hillary just to see what happens when she wins.
Sure there’s a lot of folks who hate her but they will be offset by the ones who love Bill. It’s a forgone conclusion that if she’s nominated, she wins.
I believe John is right on with this call. I think Obama would have a much better chance against any republican candidate than Clinton.
Obama/inanimate carbon rod ’08!!
Chuck Norris / Chuck Norris ’08!!
– because only Chuck Norris could be vice-President and President at the same time!
– wins by a landslide by promising to fight global warming with a roundhouse kick to the head.
Florida is 4th in pop. Must have lots of strippers.
Whit
(ca resident)
Republicans will win in 2008? Dvorak has really gone off the deep end this time. Pay attention to the dismal turnout compared with the Democrats. I’d put money on a third party candidate before the Republican nominee..
>>Even with the GOP slime machine directed at Obama he can win. The GOP slime machine needs a tune-up.
Sorry but Bill Clinton is a democrat.
The Republicans could win against Hillary. She, and other Democrats, have spent the last 8 years campaigning against George Bush.
But he’s not running in this election. Neither is Cheney.
And there are plenty of people (both Republican and Democrat) who would rather move to France than vote for Hillary.
What planet does this perkel person reside on?
John’s right about the Republicans wining, just not the part of ANY Rep. I think Romney is a loser in the National polling.
As to McCain losing the nomination…..Florida sealed it, along with Huckleberry staying in the race(he pulls Romney supporters, not McCain supporters). Rudy leaving gives almost his entire support group, intact to McCain, which will put him at 50% or better in 9 of the super duper tuesday primaries(including Califonia, New York, Conn., and New Jersey). Also, something the Dem.’s don’t have, *winner take all* primaries, all of the Rep.’s biggest states(except California) are WTA states and McCain alread has double diget leads in all of them, without Guiliani.
Of the 20 states on Tuesday, McCain is leading in 13, with close to 550 delegates, and close enough in the others to get delegates…..the real experts have figured it out and McCain will probably have 900 delegates by next Weds.(he needs 1191) and by March 12 will have another 300 from states he’s already leading in.
From my reading all night last night I found that election expert’s(not pundits or media) that are not committed to any candidate are saying that only a complete collapse by McCain before next Tuesday would allow a Romney win. The numbers just aren’t there. He is leading in Utah, Colorado(both heavy Morman states) and Mass……he’s not close anywhere else. Huckleberry is leading in Georgia, Arkansas, and Tenn….with a close call in Missouri.
McCain will be the Rep. nominee. The VP talk is all over the place. Some think Huckleberry is it(I hope not), and a few think Romney(McCain actually dispises him)(I hope not again), so it’s anyone’s guess. I think it could be Graham(Lindsy) or Gov. Crist of Florida(would guarantee Florida for the GOP), but my Uncle(who is gay) says not likely because there have been really strong rumours that Crist is gay(he’s even had to state publically that he’s not).
I think Hillary will be the Dem.’s choice, through dirty tricks and a really slimeball tactic election.
But her negatives are way to high, and the stalwart Rep.’s will beat old ladies and kids with a stick to get them out of their way to vote against her. Her only real chance is if she picks Obama and even that will make her a hard sell.
If she dosen’t pick Obama, then I predict that 30% of the black vote stays home, along with 25% of the youth/far left vote. Then she can’t win. Hillary will need every single vote available against McCain.
Flying Spaghetti Monster help us if she gets in office.
A lot of you seem to be hung up on the Democrat turnout in these Primaries. What you don’t seem to grasp is that it dosen’t mean diddly squat for next November.
Once the novelty wears off of the first female and first black viable candidates(and it will, by June or July) and the new Marijuana crop comes in(Oct to end of Novemeber) most of those people won’t be out voting in the General election. Someone is going to be highly pissed when their hero loses and will most likely stay home. If Obama loses, significant black and young leftie voters will sit it out.(the young always get excited in the primaries, but like dogs and toddlers are low on attention span and usually get distracted by shiny objects before the general election). If Hillary loses, the older, blue collar, white males and feminists, as well as a large segment of the Hispanic’s will sit it out.
Democrats hate Bush, but he won’t be there in Nov. and that will make it harder to draw the warring factions together.
Rep.’s hate any Clinton first, but also hate the idea of ANY Democrat being there appointing Federal judges……and that’s the thing that McCain will use to bring out even his worst critics in the conservative movement. There is a possibility that 3 Supremes will be leaving in the next 4 years….Democrats don’t get as upset over that as the Rep.’s do….just watch, it will be a rallaying call for McCain.
#44 said: “Sure there’s a lot of folks who hate her but they will be offset by the ones who love Bill. It’s a forgone conclusion that if she’s nominated, she wins.”
Uh, the people who hate Hillary and those who hate Bill are pretty much the same core group. The number who love Bill and hate Hillary isn’t very large.
One of the reasons that turnout was high was that there was an amendment on the ballot that would effectively lower real estate taxes. It passed overwhelmingly. Some group, probably the real estate industry, spent a lot of money running ads to get people to vote for the amendment.
Who is Pecker?
Ya. Who the hell is Pecker??
Joshua, you got it exactly right in #’s 52 and 54. Well said and very well thought out.
Good Job!
I think the Repubes are underestimating how female Republican voters are going to vote if Hillary is on the ballot. Many of the “little ol’ conservative housewives” are going to stick it to the man when they get in the voting booth and no one is looking.
Get just 10% of that vote, and it is a landslide for Hillary.
If Hillary chooses Obama for VP, there will be a record turnout for Dems.