In a race where the Democratic votes don’t count and there are no delegates at stake, Hillary Clinton got the most votes of any candidate running in either party. McCain came in second, Romney came in third and Obama came in fourth. Edwards, who came in seventh, was beaten by both Guliani and Mike Huckabee.
Although the pundits will write off the Clinton win in the Democratic primary as a beauty contest, I can’t help but think that when a candidate who didn’t campaign in the state at all comes in first ahead of all the Republicans, who have been campaigning hard there, that it’s too significant to ignore. And it’s an even bigger victory because the Democrats knew their vote didn’t even count.
So if the Democrats don’t blow it by electing Obama, I (Perkel – not Dvorak) think this is an indication that Hillary would win by a landslide in the general election.
AAAHHHH!!!! SHE DEVIL! SHE DEVIL! HURRY, WHERE’S MY CROSS!!!!!!
Actually, the general consensus is that if Obama doesn’t win the nomination and Hillary does, there’ll be Republican for the next four years guaranteed.
I thought there may have been some stirring of enthusiasm among Republican voters when I saw – for a change – the voter turnout in the Florida primary was up over 2000.
Then, I learned there also was a referendum on property taxes.
No doubt, a lot closer to the hearts of Florida Republicans than the Bobsey Twins.
I agree with Balbas’ estimation of the endgame.
Hey, I saw that you linked to my International Delete Your Myspace Account Day post earlier. Well, starting at midnight the celebration begins. I put up a new post with detailed instructions of how to delete a myspace profile.
No surprise. At the beginning of this whole thing, she polled way higher than Obama. Why? Name Recognition.
As each state has gotten to know the candidates, the lead has shrunk and in many cases she’s lost the lead altogether.
Florida and Illinois were locked out of the primaries by the democratic party for going against the wishes of the party. The candidates agreed not to campaign there, and their delegates don’t count for the primary.
So, with nothing else but name recognition — and in Illinois being the only name on the ballot, she shows a win in both places.
Shocking.
Now of course, she’s signed on to a lawsuit demanding to give back those delegates and make them count. That smacks of underhandedness and desperation to me, and shows her true colors.
I’d almost rather vote Republican than vote Hillary. Hell, McCain v. H.Clinton would be tough choice for me. Obama would beat both hands down for my vote (at least so far).
You guys are morons. She is unelectable. There is way too much dirt on her that will come out.
Hillary Clinton is the last thing this country needs. While all the Democrats seem to be preaching the concept of change, I can’t help but feel that Obama is the only true change candidate. Having Hillary would mean having members of two families serve as President for at least 24 years. That’s ridiculous. Additionally, I couldn’t bring myself to vote in a Clinton/McCain election.
More Democrats voted than Republicans and the Dem votes don’t count. Seems that means something.
mperkel writes, “And it’s an even bigger victory because the Democrats knew their vote didn’t even count.”
It’s hard to tell the significance with any clarity, but in the endless spin cycle of politics, let me take a turn….. Florida has quite a few retirees, and maybe the Dems who turned out were slightly senile and actually thought their vote would count.
American democracy is screwed up and in dire need of a “Service Pack” to fix some of the bugs.
Florida:
Lots of retired people.
Lots of conservatives.
Lots of election fraud.
@#9: I am looking at the TV and adding votes: approximately 1.6 mil. for Democrats vs. 1.8 mil. for Republicans, both reporting 94% of the vote…
And for the main post: you can’t compare votes like this… Numbers as they are now show only that Hilary is dominant choice among Florida Democrats and that Florida Republicans do not have dominant candidate choice… I doubt any cross-over vote in general elections (even the Ron Paul voters won’t likely vote for Democrat nor Democrats for any Republican). As for total voting numbers I just quoted, they are so close that one can guarantee very close Florida result (recounts bet anyone?) in the general election, nothing else.
Conservatives would love to think that either Obama or Clinton is “unelectable”, but compared to the same old same old the Republicans are offering the Democrat, regardless of who it is, is going to win in a landslide guaranteed.
The Democrats showing up to the polls in droves is mirroring in all the other state primaries so far except Nevada (where every Mormon in the state voted for Romney) and Michigan (not Illinois #6) where the other beauty contest was held.
The Dems are very excited, the Reps are staying home this year. I predict the trend will continue to November.
All the democratic candidates pledged to NOT campaign in Florida.
Hillary won Florida by breaking her promise, appearing in a number of places in Florida. Because these were “private” events, she claimed that it didn’t count. But since she was the only candidate in the state, the media covered the events as if they were public.
This is how the Clintons have always done things: make a promise, break it, pretend they didn’t break it, then claim it didn’t matter anyway.
Obama/Gore ’08 !!!
Chuck? You rock!
Isn’t this just another example of the do anything to win mentality. She was always ahead by these margins in all the other states until the other candidates got in there and campaigned. It seems a little disingenuous to me that she would go there and declare victory in a game where she was the only player. Sorry, but this reeks of desperation.
What some of you old farts that support Hillary don’t realize is that Barack Obama excites people under 50. They like him and they get out and vote! He is the first candidate in my life that motivates people under 35 to vote. In Iowa the under 35 crowd voted in as high of numbers as the over 65 crowd. This is unheard of. You think Clinton can get new people out there with her “It’s my turn to be president” schtick? Get real and vote for Obama Feb. 5th!!!!
>>So if the Democrats don’t blow it by electing Obama I (Perkel – not Dvorak) think this is an indication that Hillary would win by a landslide in the general election.
Your theory is certainly plausible but I think this race is more unpredictable than any we’ve seen recently.
IMHO, this is because the Dem’s have so many great candidates (but great in different ways) and the GOPs are so universally bad. (in much the same way but in their own horrid ways, too.)
It no wonder the electorate is all over the place.
I had not considered an Obama/Gore ticket. That would be formidable if it were to happen.
In my paranoid world I now have a new fear. What did Obama give away to get such a fantastic endorsement from Ted Kennedy? Is Ted now trying for the White House through a surrogate? I can’t believe that if Ted helps Obama get into the White House that he wouldn’t be pulling a lot of strings.
So who are we voting for, Obama or Ted?
When asked about campaigning in Florida, even though she had agreed not to, Hillary pounded the podium, wagged her finger, and yelled
“I DID NOT HAVE CAMPAIGN RELATIONS WITH THAT STATE!”
Chuck, you said it yourself. The media covered the events like they were public events. The Clintons can’t take a dump without the media acting like they are doing it to make Obama look bad.
I watched her speech tonight, and all she did was thank the people of Florida for voting. That’s all she did, and the news channels said she was claiming victory and holding a victory party. Quit buying into what the media is doing.
I’m not saying I support Clinton or Obama. I’m just saying don’t believe the spin coming from the news.
# 16 echeola said, >>
Isn’t this just another example of the do anything to win mentality. She was always ahead by these margins in all the other states until the other candidates got in there and campaigned.
This narrative of the race is deja vu all over again. .. it is EXACTLY how the media portrayed Gore in 2000. That Gore was some calculating political animal who would say and do anything to get elected. Bush was the “awe shucks” guy who just wanted to honestly serve his country.
We later learned that the supposed lies by Gore were actually shameless lies seeded in the media by Bush.
I’m not falling for that story-line this time. I don’t know about you other mooks, but I have a limit to how often I fall for obvious bullsheist.
OF COURSE Clinton wants to win. They all do. I don’t believe she’s any worse than the others and she surely has more integrity than — let’s say — Romney who flip flopped on nearly every position he ever held in order to pander to the GOP base.
To those who mentioned an Obama/Gore ticket, I think it would be a mistake, but the good news is that it won’t happen. First off, Gore’s head isn’t into the political and policy games the way it was in 2000. The time when he could have easily stepped into the presidency has passed, IMO. After picking himself up and dusting himself off, he has moved on, and I think he prefers his new role. I just can’t imagine him signing up for another stint as second banana. He has more stature now than he would as V.P.
STILL,
the only ones ALLOWED to vote…WERE WHO??
registered democrats or republicans…
^^^^^^^^^^^
THAT is the KEY WORD.
I want to know how many voted…and compare THAT with the State population, and REGISTERED VOTERS..
Why whould Gore want to give up his global warming god gig witch pays great to be second banana again?
Woooo….Thanks Perkel, you’re always good for a laugh.
Hillary isn’t electable because…(listen carefully)….She has Bill playing political hit-man for her, and as much as some people love him he plays just as dirty as she does. And the more he stumps for her the more people are reminded of the negatives of having the ‘2-for-1’ in the Oval Office.
I applaud your enthusiasm for your chosen candidate but she just isn’t the one. Clear the boards and start over. No Bushes and no Clintons.
Don’t buy into the numbers turning out to vote in the primaries(more Reb.’s than Dem.’s but just a bit over 3 million in a state of over 10 million registered voters), it really means very little. The Dem.’s have a possibly historic election going for them with the first truely viable black and the first truely viable woman and the only metrosexual white boy in the south vieing for their nomination. That will draw out numbers, plus many Dem.’s actually believe the media and pundits that say the Rep.’s are toast this year. Anyone but McCain they will be, but with McCain they most likely will win another 4 years at least.
The Rep.’s on the other hand are battle fatigued from trying to defend almost 8 years of Bush and his policies and the unbelievable crop of pervert’s and crooks they managed to elect over the last 12 years to congress.
But, you can be sure, that if Hillary is the nominee(and she most likely will be, unless they finally find her prints on the gun that shot Vince Foster) the Rep’s and the Independents will be out in force in November.
Hillary will lose the Independent vote to McCain, and approximatly 11% of Dem.’s have stated they would support McCain. McCain also polls best of all Rep.’s with Hispanic’s, and will get Bush’s share of that vote(about 43%) and the usual 9% of the black vote. But, after her and Bill swift boating Obama, a large segment of the black vote will sit this one out, and that’s a fact, also there are rumblings of the young lefties staying home as well if she gets it. To win, a Dem. MUST have a 80% or better turnout among blacks, and 55% of the Hispanics, and 52% of the Independents. A coalition that Hillary can’t put together. Her negatives are the highest of anyone in years, 46% say they would not vote for her period!!
She only wins in November if Romney or Huckleberry is the nominee. All of the major polling groups show McCain beating her by a minimum of 6 points to a high of 11 points, and him beating Obama by 2 points to 4 points.
So, Obama would be the best way to go for the Dem.’s, but they won’t, it will be Hillary.
Yeah I know, my predictions suck normally….lol……but these are based on actual reading of every damn political site in the country. 🙂
All of you that parrot change…
Look NONE of them will change anything but the innards of the White House.
Hillary wants to re-install her husband’s regime.
All of the Republicans want a return to Reagan.
And supposive great changer Obama wants a return of Camelot.
That is not moving forward. At the best we return back to the 90’s. At worst we are stuck with the 60’s. Yeah great ideas.
We have NO ONE that supports us to go on into this century yet. And we won’t for at least another 20 years.
Cursor_
You know, that picture scares me.
I think it will be close. History shows that the under 40 crowd, who are the most iberal leaning, tend to yell for their candidate the loudest, yet find almost any excuse to not vote on election day. Don’t underestimate the over 60 voters leaning heavily McCain. They are the biggest voting block that actually shows up.
OK, I spoke with Clinton’s campaign manager, Terry McAuliffe, over the weekend in South Carolina, and he made it perfectly clear that it was part of their campaign strategy to play up the hollow wins in Michigan and Florida to influence later primaries. Why? Because Obama was not campaigning in those states; thus giving her a chance.