The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch. It said that Friday’s employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession…
An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years…
It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors…
Merrill also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy.
“To say that the backdrop is ‘recession like’ is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is ‘sort of pregnant'”.
Another aspect of the discussion – predictably – is the “I’m all right, Jack” crowd – who really don’t give a damn about anyone else, anyway.
I’d guess its not hitting the NW coast as bad as some areas of the country, as I havent noticed any thing thats looks like a recession – but if its “just starting”, I guess that it may get worse over time.
I didnt take economics in college like I should have so perhaps this questions is moot – but I was under the impression that enconomies are cyclical – just like the global temperature – it goes up and down… and we’re on the way down into a trough
From the Dictionary, a Recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not a state of mind or a feeling. We either are, or we aren’t.
All I know is Bush is optimistic about the economy, but the economy is giving mixed signals according to Bush. Wait… I guess I don’t know anything then.
If Bush claimed God told him the economy is good, then everyone would be fine.
What’s the point of knowledge of a grey period if we don’t act on it to elevate it into lighter times? Here’s a tip: $1.00 for all the nickel and diming you’ve been through.
#2 has it correct. Real GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2007 increased 3.8% and increased 4.9% in the 3rd quarter of 2008. To be in a recession, it would require negative growth in the 4th quarter of 2007 (numbers are not out yet) which is unlikely and again in the 1st quarter of 2007. This sounds more like people wanting the economy to be bad so they can blame Bush.
I work in Germany and they want me to pay $1.51 for a Euro…this makes me agree with the article.
Make that
“…again in the 1st quarter of 2008”
[Fixed. – ed.]
A recession is when we say so, forget the dictionary!
>is the “I’m all right, Jack” crowd –
Don’t tell me everything seems OK, when I’m saying otherwise! You will believe we are in recession despite what you see, and please vote accordingly.
Given 5 years of high inflation, I can believe a recession is forthcoming, except it took even longer under Jimmy Carter’s crappy economics, and that was with even higher inflation. So I think the recession is likely to be on the next president’s watch.
Ok, the dollar is in the crapper, the trade gap is at an all time high, debt is at an all time high, and the darn baby boomers are going to suck us dry with social security payments shortly. But that doesn’t mean a recession. Dictionary or no Dictionary, english is a language, and words have meanings. It’s not a recession if it doesn’t meet the definition. Call it a low point in consumer confidence, or whatever. What it means is we’ve had crap leadership over the past thirty years. And it ain’t getting any better. The only things keeping us afloat is that we have a lot of US companies doing international work and a lot of international companies doing US investment, and the masssive service economy, which is always growing.
Regardless, until the goverment coffer starts to show a positive balance, and not a deficit, it’ll get worse. And I don’t see either side saying anything that amounts to reducing the budget, only growing both it and the tax rate.
If you’re comparing dollars and euros, the dollar’s drop just means the euro is doing better.
You only need to look at gold and silver prices to see that the dollar is in trouble, but that does not mean the economy is in trouble.
Sure it means the economy is in trouble. Not everyone goes around hedging their currency to protect against government theft.
Comparitive values are just that. They can indicate a problem exists without saying what the problem is, or they can say someone else is in better shape without the US being in worse shape.
Comparitive values indicate a need to take a closer look to see what is going on.
Too many people base this on their own observations. It’s not about the fact if you have a job and can pay bills. It’s the fact that many people are not buying and this in turn leads to les overtime,layoff’s, and yes job loss.Recessions are less about job loss as much as it is a slowdown. If a recession hits deep enough then you have a depression and then you have major job losses.The housing market creates a lot of spending,and when that goes south lot’s of people make a lot less money.
it is all on how you use the “facts” to dertermine what you want…
when is it a depression??? not just a recession??
if the enconomy ever gets to the depression level, would anyone say so?? or will they look through rose colored glasses and say we are in a recession still, in an attempt to keep the public from panicing??
soooooooo are we really in a recession as told by those that have the most to lose… or have we gon further?
It’s the WAR DUMBASS!
A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose your job.
One important indicator that is not being discussed much is credit card usage. People can no longer borrow against their houses, so they are starting to load up on their credit cards, with huge interest rates. Once those are maxed out, or credit dries up due to unpaid debt, expect the real crash to start. If you don’t have 6 months of real cash in the bank after you subtract all debts, you are in trouble if things go bad quickly. Homes are no longer a cushion, since many with go upside-down as real estate drops.
Commercial real estate is starting to suffer also, which indicates that people are not spending and marginal stores are dropping out fairly quickly.
I could explain the reason that are really behind this all, but the Retardicans won’t listen anyway.
You’ve already contradicted yourself when you noted that the dollar has dropped against gold.
#5. Yeah, those Wall Street pinkos should get off Bush’s back!
#20, Me? Nope. Gold is international. Someone buying lots of it elsewhere is making it scarce here. The price increase is making me nervous, but I’d want to see more.
Imagine what Kyoto would have done to the US economy, though.
There are basically no tech jobs north of San Francisco all the way to the Oregon Border… Now what is that? If you are over 40 and don’t have a PHD in computer sci or networking you might as well jump in front of a train.
Funny how this is listed as a recession. We’ve been in recession since the FED raised interest rates to stop higher wages in 1997. Bush has been printing money like mad. This has helped keep most of the recession symptoms hidden. Falsifying data has helped cover the rest. We’ve just reached the point where it can’t be covered up any longer. The only thing that will bring us out of this recession is more jobs and more taxes collected from those with jobs. Sound familiar?
I don’t know, I work for an engineering firm, and we can’t find enough good engineers and are literally turning down jobs. Even though companies are making sick profits, they’re also spending that money to make more money.
#5, Thomas,
This sounds more like people wanting the economy to be bad so they can blame Bush.
Why, of all things, do people want to find more things to blame Bush for? I can’t think of one thing Bush has done that has helped America. If anything, we want his term over so the country can move on.
#26
Let’s be honest here. You are so blinded by hate for Bush that it is not possible in your mind for anything he does to be good for country. Look, I’m no fan of Bush. He was elected twice because both his opponents were slightly bigger losers than he. Yet, that does not mean that everything he has done has been bad. I remember hearing this same sort of nonsense from liberal nuts near the end of Reagan’s term and from right-wing nuts at the end of Clinton’s term.
#27, Thomas,
Let’s be honest here. You are so blinded by hate for Bush that it is not possible in your mind for anything he does to be good for country.
Alright Mr Know it all, could you name one thing that Bush has done that helped America be a better place?
Oh well, there is the homophobic outrage he showed, if blatant hatred counts.
Or, there is the Lots of Children Left Behind Act, ’nuff said.
Of course, when he swore that he wouldn’t rest until Osama bin Laden was hunted down and killed, has he slept yet?
We can’t forget his massive Social Security overhaul, has it helped you any?
And his intensive Immigration Reform Act, oopps, still waiting on that one.
And his policy of caring for the troops, all dressed in battle gear for the photo-ops.
And, alright, I fucking give. Bush has done nothing to help this country. He did do a few things that have helped out his rich buddies and the oil industry in general, but not ordinary Americans.
Do Mighty Micro Economists see things better than mere mortal Americans? Are we incapable of judging what is good because a Mighty Micro Economist has declared it is good? Can a nut job right wing nut know what is good for us that we don’t know? C’mon, let’s be honest here.
#28
Sorry, but I won’t get into this discussion with someone blinded by hate. No example or evidence I provide will satisfy someone with such hatred. I will simply close with the fact that fervent opponents of the presiding administration have always argued that “nothing good came from” said administration. The more polarized the country, the more you hear it.
#29, Thomas,
No example or evidence I provide will satisfy someone with such hatred.
Go ahead, try us. I dared you to provide an example. ONE little fucking example where this administration has done anything that didn’t help their wallets a lot more.
C’mon, just one example. Just to see if I missed something when I was last in the can.
Hey all,
I just wrote an article about recessions. I thought it might be interesting for everyone to know that we CAN have a recession without ANY quarters of negative economic growth. Want to find out how? Read about it on my blog. econpolitik.wordpress.com
-m