Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss…
“Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
“So given that fact, you can argue that maybe our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”
Lockstep reactionaries may as well skip the article – and Maslowski’s criticism of his own work as being too conservative. Plus, why the IPCC uses “averaged” projections which may be too conservative.
At least Scott is honest enough to reveal his true agenda, even if it is couched in codewords. He’s against consumerism, population growth, etc. The solution for global warming is for everyone to shrink their lifestyle, by force if need be.
#31–Phillep==I agree. Who knows “how happy” people were living in horseshit compared to auto exhaust? My own view is that along with other advances in technology, the latter is far preferred? But Scott is an advocate of the return to the Garden of Eden. I would be too, if it were possible.
On the methane deal, you raise a devastating point. The release of methane hydrate occurred at the end of the Permian Die Off–contributing if not causing the mass extinction.
Show did not cover the intervening years, but I too would “guess” that ocean temps/methane release should be available?
Maybe RBG has 5-6 websites for that? ((Kudo’s to RBG’s contributions!!))
# 27 dave t
“This one comes up a lot. The Vikings used to farm Greenland. Is this true? Because you can’t now.”
There are a few reasons this argument is a strawman
The first is that it is a localized region. You can not make judgments about “Global” climate change based on just one area
The second would be that Greenland’s ice sheet is over 100,000 years old and covers anywhere between 80% and 95% of the land. So Greenland was never ice free.
It is perfectly possible that at one point “the medieval warming period” that yes people farmed there in limited areas. But it was never lush and green as deniers would have you believe. Life there was hard. It was not little house on the prairie by any means.
Erik the Red: He sailed all around the coast of Greenland. Where he landed he thought it offered some chance of prosperity. He called it Greenland because he wanted to attract people to it. It was one of the small portions of the land that was not covered in ice.
“Are there 400 year old fossils found under the melting ice right now? This would indicate there was no ice there 400 + years ago.”
I don’t know. I haven’t read anything on it lately. Again if there was no ice there would be no fossils because it sits above an ocean. I won’t bother to go into the various ways fossils move in ice because I could go on forever.
“The planet naturally gives off carbon dioxide, matter of fact, volcanic eruptions give off a lot. How much is natural and how much is man? ”
From what I have read Volcanoes release between 130-230 million tonnes of CO2 per year The US alone releases 20 tonnes per person per year that comes to around 6 billion tonnes of CO2 per year
# 29 bobbo
“#28–Georg==thank you for the entre to inform “J” that I was atleast one earlier poster to use the term “Dolt.”
Its used in response to postings like yours. Good job.”
bobbo I don’t lay claim to that word. Someone else used it and I remembered how much I liked it so started using it. 🙂
repulican response: there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming. there is not global warming.
lalalalalalalalllala
i’m not listening
lalalalalalalalalala
Time to buy some Frozen land in Canada. It will soon be Farm land. WOOT WOOT.Then I can feed allot more people. But I will get unluck and all those scientists will be right after the past couple decades and the Bird Flu will wipe out half the Human Race.
# 33 MikeN
“At least Scott is honest enough to reveal his true agenda, even if it is couched in codewords. He’s against consumerism, population growth, etc. The solution for global warming is for everyone to shrink their lifestyle, by force if need be.”
I don’t think anyone is against consumerism and population anymore than they are against injecting themselves with plutonium. Those things when not done in moderation can become just as toxic to the survival of man kind as injecting ones self with a deadly element.
Human industrial activity has, as a measurable, proven fact significantly altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere over the past 150 years, and has changed the color of huge swaths of the earth through deforestation.
Only a complete and total idiot could possibly believe that there would be no repercussions from that.
Are you so freaking worried about petty luxuries that you are willing to continue to campaign against any attempt to try to stave off or to solve the problem?
Will you be proud of the world you leave your grandchildren?
#32–Mike==nice, well documented site. Difficult subject isn’t it?
#36–Jay==a few days ago you asked who first used “Dolt.” I can’t take credit because anyone else may have said it but when I first came to this site, I was more agressive than today and often called folks dolt. Much as Mustardo still attaches the diminutive endings to his proper nouns. Mustard has a much better sense of humor than I do.
The sun’s solar radiation correlates very nicely with the recorded temperatures. I guess all that industrial CO2 affects the sun too.
I like warm weather. I support global warming. I do my part by eating beans with every meal.
Lets be honest here. Regardless of who caused what, IF the earth is doomed because CO2 output isn’t being reduced enough by self regulation why aren’t their threats being issued? If I’m 100% sure I’m going to be killed soon by you doing something that you could stop doing, I would take that as an attack, and I would demand that you stop, and then defend myself to the death if necessary.
Why isn’t that happening in the world? I keep hearing the term “the point of no return” being used, and it’s only a few years away. If in fact that is true, please tell me WHY there is no resolve by the thousands of scientists, and the millions of their supporters to take action. If they truthfully believe their own data, where’s the hysteria before annihilation? M Scott?, J?
I think the answer is – no one knows for sure
this is not a small experiment in a lab. This is the grand scale of the planet and possibly the solar system.
Right now there are too many variables, unanswered questions and doubt on both sides to know.
Obviously the awareness will help. It definitely takes a lot to get to get the masses moving on something but I do know one fact based on the history of greed and human race: The true replacement fuel will not be used until the profit from the last drop of oil of this planet is spent.
These aren’t the same guys that have been warning us about the killer hurricanes for the past few years are they?
JimR, there is hysteria from these scientists. Didn’t you see Al Gore’s movie? Scientists happily let the media and others exaggerate the effects of global warming, and do so themselves as well. They want to scare people into action.
# 42 MikeN
“The sun’s solar radiation correlates very nicely with the recorded temperatures. I guess all that industrial CO2 affects the sun too.”
No but it does affect the way that solar energy is stored or reflected.
# 44 JimR
“If in fact that is true, please tell me WHY there is no resolve by the thousands of scientists, and the millions of their supporters to take action.”
Because the Oil, Gas and Coal industries have too much money to lose. They have and will fight very hard and dirty to keep it.
# 45 dave t
“The true replacement fuel will not be used until the profit from the last drop of oil of this planet is spent.”
Sadly that statement is probably the truth.
MikeN, christ man, That POS was laughable. Exaggerating the truth just ruined their credibility. Getting a Nobel Prize for it was a double punch line. EVERYBODY knows it. If the world is doomed, we have a bunch of morans in charge. In reality, NOTHING has been done to reflect the threat we are told is imminent. NOTHING.
BillM, Yes they are the same guys. It seems they don’t understand,even with all their fancy computer simulations, enough, about the relationship between ocean temperature, high altitude winds, ocean currents, water vapour, sand clouds, and a hundred other more subtle factors to understand what a change in the normal statistical range in just one of them will have on major storms.
What they’ll do now is re-write the code so that the answers come out correctly… not really knowing the true cause-effect scenario. They are losing credibility.
J, so why aren’t you blowing up oil refineries? Your life is being supposedly threatened by them. The end is near, and you have very little time left. They are about to kill you man. Why are you just posting here if you believe that?
A guy breaks into your house and confronts you with a knife. He says i don’t give a fnck about you, you’re a dead man and so are your wife and kids. Would you just sit down and write a nasty note about him?
# 50 JimR
“J, so why aren’t you blowing up oil refineries?”
Because JimR in a civilized society we don’t do things like that. Only wing nuts like you would think of such things. Besides that would cause an environmental issue in it self.
“Your life is being supposedly threatened by them.”
No I will be just fine and will probably live out my life to a full average number of years. I have lots of money and I have one of those government cards that puts me in one of the safe houses if I choose.
” The end is near, and you have very little time left.”
I don’t know if it will happen in my life. I guess that is reason enough not to give a shit. DOLT!
“They are about to kill you man.”
Well I do subscribe to the philosophy that if someone wants you dead you will be dead no matter how much protection you have. As long as they are willing to sacrifice their life in exchange.
It isn’t just me that will be suffering from the effects. It is every living organism on the planet. DOLT!
” Why are you just posting here if you believe that?””
How do you know what else I am doing? Are you and Mr. Mustard in some kind of stalking club?
I do plenty don’t you worry. I have given probably more than your yearly salary to such causes each year.
“A guy breaks into your house and confronts you with a knife. He says I don’t give a fnck about you, you’re a dead man and so are your wife and kids. Would you just sit down and write a nasty note about him?”
LOL I love these hypothetical situations!!!!!!!!
First if he got past the gate and then got past the security system and then got past the private security I would consider him to be a serious threat. I would probably lodge two hollow points from my graphite Browning 9mm into his chest cavity which I think would be enough to make him drop his knife. Then I would sit down and write him a nasty note and place it on his dead carcass
Like I said I do a lot more than you think.
Sure a lot of you government “internet lackies” mucking up the blogs trying to convolute the truth.
#31 phillep,
I don’t believe I accused anyone in particular on this blog of anything. I am making a statement, plain and simple, for anyone who cares to read it. We’re all bloggers here just spewing our useless opinions after all.
As for the under sea methane release, the planet has been hot enough that such a release should have occurred some time in the last 2.5Million years. Does anyone have a record of such a thing happening?
Actually, the last time the planet was warmer than current forecasts was not 2.5 million years ago (MYA), it was 55 MYA. And, humans and our close relatives were not around then. So, we have no idea whether we can survive such an event. It was when this started to cool that the planet started a real recovery from the impact that took out the non-avian dinosaurs 65.3 MYA.
#33 – MikeN,
At least Scott is honest enough to reveal his true agenda, even if it is couched in codewords. He’s against consumerism, population growth, etc. The solution for global warming is for everyone to shrink their lifestyle, by force if need be.
Thank you. The one thing I’d contradict is that I do not think we need to “shrink our lifestyle”. I think we need to think about what is important and what is not to each of us. Each of us should probably stop buying crap that will be thrown out in under 6 months, for example.
Check out the section of this that talks about the statistics on stuff that we throw away without really ever using in under 6 months. Actually, the whole video is really quite good.
http://www.storyofstuff.com/
As I’ve stated many times, I believe that we can continue to have nearly identical lifestyles to our current ones without any significant change and still dramatically reduce our energy use.
I have a 1992 4 cylinder Camry. Many would consider it underpowered. I also drive for gas mileage, so instead of the 21/27 EPA, I get 26/31 MPG. Still, even with those numbers, I accelerate faster from a light than most people and faster on the highway entrance ramp than most people.
So, dropping the engine sizes in most vehicles will not affect most drivers. Each of us should ask how often we actually mash the pedal to the floor. If the answer is rarely, then the car is overpowered, as my 4 cyl Camry is.
“The true replacement fuel will not be used until the profit from the last drop of oil of this planet is spent.” No only when a true replacement fuel is created that works and is as cheap or cheaper than oil and easy to use. Their is nothing like it our their at the moment.
Electric cars suck Period. You have the battery issue. Range and the time to recharge.
Hydrogen is not ready cost way to much to make takes more energy than you get back out of it.
Ethanol is the biggest joke and sin that we have going. Yes, lets burn a food crop and not feed the people who need and raise the price of everything else.
If Environmentalists would have let us keep building Nuke Power Plants back in the 70’s just think how much CO2 we would have saved.
The earth is doomed anyways in a few billion years, as the sun slowly grows into a Red Giant and incinerates Earth. So, what’s the use. Die todady, die tomorrow, or die eventually. It’s the one constant in the Universe.
#34 – bobbo,
But Scott is an advocate of the return to the Garden of Eden. I would be too, if it were possible.
No!! I don’t believe in the Garden of Eden, other than as a pretty good grocery store near my mother’s apartment. 🙂
Other than that though, you’re correct. I advocate a return to a healthy and robust biosphere that can be truly sustainable. It would be great if that includes us. Given my opinion of our species though, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that I don’t have much hope for us though.
#39 – J,
I don’t think anyone is against consumerism and population anymore than they are against injecting themselves with plutonium. Those things when not done in moderation can become just as toxic to the survival of man kind as injecting ones self with a deadly element.
If I thought for a minute that making a martyr of myself by injecting myself with plutonium would convince the world to get off the twin religions of “be fruitful and multiply” and consumerism, I just might do it.
#44 – JimR,
Why isn’t that happening in the world? I keep hearing the term “the point of no return” being used, and it’s only a few years away. If in fact that is true, please tell me WHY there is no resolve by the thousands of scientists, and the millions of their supporters to take action. If they truthfully believe their own data, where’s the hysteria before annihilation? M Scott?, J?
It is. Pay more attention. Even the most conservative statements being made, those made by the IPCC, estimate a billion climate refugees by 2050. That’s global civilizational collapse for any that don’t realize that an eighth of the world’s human population cannot be made homeless without catastrophic effect.
>>This one comes up a lot. The Vikings
>>used to farm Greenland. Is this true?
>>Because you can’t now.
I don’t know if it was true then, but they’re sure as shit farming it now:
http://tinyurl.com/2wgv3p
“Greenlanders are eating locally grown cauliflower, broccoli and cabbage this year for the first time. Eight sheep farmers are growing potatoes commercially. Five more are experimenting with vegetables. And Kenneth Hoeg, the region’s chief agriculture adviser, says he does not see why southern Greenland cannot eventually be full of vegetable farms and viable forests.”
#20 Mark Derail,
Ironically, thanks to the advancement of science, we have nuclear, solar & wind that generates electricity. Slowly this technology will replace coal & oil for electricity.
Actually, nuclear power is one of the prime examples of a solution even worse than the problem. It may be better for a little while. But, what are we going to do with the waste?
Don’t tell me Europe has already solved the problem. There is not a single long term (hundreds of millions of years) storage facility in place yet. By definition, all such facilities are experimental at best.
Don’t tell me Europe produces far less waste from their plants. That may be true on the outbound side. But, the inbound starts with enriched uranium. The byproduct is depleted uranium. It has a half life on the order of hundreds of millions of years and makes up the bulk of the uranium mined. What are we doing with that? (I know, making armor piercing weapons. That is not proper disposal of radioactive waste.)
J, I’m not going down your path of hypocrisy. You would put 2 bullet into a guy who threatens you, but you are doing nothing but “lip service” to stop oil companies killing you more slowly (according to you). Hint, screwing in 10 cfl lightbulbs and driving a hybrid won’t do it.
Until I see 2000 scientists and a zillion other protestors on the streets of NYC for immediate remedial action worldwide, I won’t take them too seriously. If that many scientists claim we are surely to self annihilate, or 1 billion refugees will be looking for a new home… ie famine, death, desperation, war…. then an error packed documentary and a nobel prize as an all out assault/defense is a joke. Meeting after meeting and the CO2 targets are now year 2000 levels instead of 1990. that is very conflicting when the situation is apparently much worse than ever. Why are they so willing to back up on their targets if the situation is so desperate?