About 70% of Iraqis believe security has deteriorated in the area covered by the US military “surge” of the past six months, an opinion poll suggests.
The survey by the BBC, ABC News and NHK of more than 2,000 people across Iraq also suggests that nearly 60% see attacks on US-led forces as justified.
The poll suggests that the overall mood in Iraq is as negative as it has been since the US-led invasion in 2003.
Between 67% and 70% of the Iraqis polled believe the surge has hampered conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic development.
Only 29% think things will get better in the next year, compared to 64% two years ago.
If you’d like to read the poll in full, click here [748k .pdf]. You’ll be ahead of your Congresscritter.
Interesting take from the Gen.Petraeus and that embarassador guy regarding any near term pullout..pullback or premature ejaculation.
Al Queda gaining strength and Iran take-over mentioned frequently.
Gotta wonder how a Saudi backed Al Queda will get along with the Iranians ? Al Queda wasn’t even there until we started doing our thing. Dunno but, I am willing to believe enough of what they are saying to wait and see what developes For now and until I hear something different with reliable sources to support the view.
We made a big deal out of making them hold democratic elections, and then claiming they are a sovereign nation.
And after 4-years we seem surprised that our top-down approach isn’t working, and that a bottom-up may be the way to go.
Gee, kinda like the original States got together to declare independence from England, and adopt the Articles of Confederation – after a year of debate.
But the AoC wasn’t quite right, so they replaced it – in 1788 – with the Constitution?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation
Iraq is in the “AoC debate” phase, and we’re pissed they haven’t made the jump directly into the Constitution phase??
It took us 12-years to get to that point….
Amazing stat. You don’t have to tell me twice. I’d be out of there ASAP. As my grandmother used to say, “if you are staying up for me, I am better.”
>>and we’re pissed they haven’t made the jump directly into
>>the Constitution phase??
Uh, no. We’re pissed because Dumbya lied his way into waging a war (one that he had already planned in advance of 9/11) on a bunch of hoked-up bullshit; he and his puppeteers haven’t given an honest accounting of the war since the day it started, and we keep on throwing American lives into Little King Georgie’s meat middle-eastern meat grinder just so he won’t have to admit the fucked up. Big time.
They can take as long as they want to get to the “Constitution phase”; they can take 800 years for all I care. And they can do it with the same amount of outside “help” that America had in drafting and implementing the AoC and Constitution. None.
They don’t want us, we don’t want to be there, so what’s the argument here? The only reason at all to stick it out any longer is to try and mitigate the damage Dumbya caused with his unilateral declaration of war and the subsquent emergence of “al Qaeda in Iraq”, an entity that did not exist until he catalyzed its formation.
“stay the course”
“give it time to work”
be prepared to hear that forever, its obvious our leaders dont care what anyone says
Surely those troops will have to be pulled out soon – they’ll be needed for the Iran invasion.
If the best piece of evidence the opponents of Operation Fadr al-Qanoon can offer is polling data, than the situation is better than I thought. I went over this poll and the main methodological error is the place where the oversampling was conducted: Kirkurk, Basra City, Sadr City, and Al-Anbar even though ABC does not say what cities or towns in Al-Anbar. More favorable results could be found if oversampling included: Mosul, Dahuk, Halabja, and Baqubah.
I doubt if someone were to ask the authors Baghdad Security Operation or the leadership carrying out the operation if these cities would drastically improve over two months they would say no. So therefore, these polling numbers are not much of a surprise. Also, the time interval of Feb to August is erroneous because the Baghdad Security Operation was not fully implemented until the middle of July. I would be more interested if the polling was conducted again in 6 months as Sadr City, Basra, and Al-Anbar will continue to benefit from the increased numbers of Iraqi Security Forces, along with the provincial reconstruction teams.
>>If the best piece of evidence the opponents of Operation Fadr
>>al-Qanoon can offer is polling data, than the situation is
>>better than I thought.
Unfortunately for you incorrigible neocon diehards, it’s NOT the best evidence. Except for some minor attempts at spin-doctoring the real data, is there ANY evidence that it’s working?
And don’t try dragging in that tired old Anbar province thing and Little King Georgie’s “surprise” visit in the days before the Petraeus testimony.
That place wasn’t even a problem before the Little King mucked things up. His “surprise” visit was about on par with his doctored-up 2004 election photos made up to appear as though more soldiers were “listening” to Dumbya than actually were. Or with McCain’s psychotic trip through the Green Zone, “demonstrating” how safe it was.
So let’s see, judging from the graph, about 47% want the US to leave now and the rest – the majority – want the US to stay.
So this somehow illustrates some point you’re trying to make?
Even with the Shiites and Iran who naturally now want the US to leave; the slightly upset Sunnis; not to mention all those who still harbor a few bad feelings over having all their relatives killed in war – that is an amazing testament.
Dumbya: who would have thought?
RBG
>>So let’s see, judging from the graph, about 47% want the
>>US to leave now and the rest – the majority – want the US to stay.
Close, but no cigar. 47% want the US to get the fuck out RIGHT NOW; 60% feel that attacks on US troops are “justified”, 68% think the surge was a major stuffup, only 29% think things are going to get better in the next year.
Of course if you phrase the question should the US stay “until security is restored” or “until the Iraqi government is stronger” or “until security forces can operate independently”, some people are going to answer “yes” to that. If they realized it was going to take 15 years (if ever) to achieve those goals, they’d probably switch over into the “get the fuck out RIGHT NOW” column.
Any way you look at it, Dumbya’s legacy is a dud, just like he is.
2008……BRING IT ON!
I bet if Americans were polled as to what they believe is the % of Iraq citizens wishing the US to remain in their country, that % would be around 15 – 20%. I would be one of those.
Then ask, who might be responsible for feeding that serious mis-perception? And how obvious it is that such things can cause a failure from self-fulfilled prophesy.
RBG
10 Mustard: Regardless, in spite of, and including of all the extra details you provide, the Iraqi majority still wants the US to remain. No probablies about it.
RBG
>>the Iraqi majority still wants the US to remain.
Pretty slim majority, for a country that was supposed to be welcoming us as “liberators” 4 years ago (you remember, before the Mission was Accomplished), don’t you think?
And if you’re willing to deny that the likelihood of “security is restored” or the government “getting stronger” (strong enough) or “Iraqi security forces are able to operate independently” is somewhere in the 0% – 5% range of probability, go for it. Denial is a powerful thing.
mxpwr03
What a load of shit! Who pays you to shill here?
I take it you come from a country that knows something about the power of slim majorities?
Welcoming as liberators? American forces defeated Iraq when they invaded ally Kuwait, remember? I suppose they are liberators in the same way the US liberated Germany and Japan. How long did it take for them to show great poll numbers after the US destroyed their countries? Now why don’t you go ask the Kurds about liberation.
Your “likelihoods” and a buck will buy me a cup of coffee. You want denial… start with yourself and real life, as in that graph at the top.
RBG
Nightstar, the payment is in the form of learning what the moon bats have to say about world events, “to know my enemy.” Also, the humorous reliance on rhetoric and not analytical skills, as seen by yourself and Mistermustard is worth its weight in gold when I actually have to discuss politics in my classes.
>>start with yourself and real life, as in that graph at the top.
OK. In that case, the number of respondents who selected “remain longer but leave eventually” or “never leave” is so small I can’t even count them on the graph.
And THAT is really the only alternative to setting a firm timetable, and getting the fuck out. Sorry if that doesn’t get you the moccachino at Starbucks.
Face it, O Colorful One; under Little King Georgie’s sage guidance (being controlled, as aways, by President Cheney/ Rove) we fucked up. Some, like George Tenet, get Presidential Medals of Freedom and a book tour; the rest of us have to clean up their mess.
It’s goign to take a lifetime to clean up all of Little King Georgie’s messes, long after he’s nothing but a bad memory.
Or maybe you think security will be restored and the security forces will be able to operate on their own by Ramadan? We know that the Iraqi government isn’t going to “become stronger”; they take their vacations even more seriously than Dumbya. And that takes some doing.
I especially enjoyed how the general & his bosom buddy the ambassador tried to downplay the results of this poll
ya’ll know we are NEVER going to leave iraq right?
think about it – we’ve got this moron in the white house making descisions based on info that a SOLDIER is giving him – a soldier who isnt going to have all that much to do if we take his favorite war away from him…. think about it.
Failure in Iraq is always touted as utterly calamitous and unthinkable, yet even with continued patience and troop deployments well into the decade(s) ahead, successful transplantation of a self-sustaining democracy is anything but assured. How was it again that we got to this place where winning may not even be possible?.
Oh, now I remember. Someone passed out Kool-Aid and told us that without Saddam Hussein, democracy in Iraq was perfectly reasonable. Always trust the man who gives you Kool-Aid. I just hope he has enough of it to convince us that we’ve succeeded and that our military bases in Iraq are just for vacationing soldiers.
#16 My question wasn’t rhetorical. I sincerely want to know who pays you to shill here.
“What a load of shit” didn’t refer to your analysis of the poll, I agree its a crock. I was offering my opinion regarding your speculation on how to further manipulate the polling data to reflect your personal views.
>>Oh, now I remember. Someone passed out Kool-Aid
>>and told us that without Saddam Hussein, democracy
>>in Iraq was perfectly reasonable.
Oh, and don’t forget all those brainiac Fox “news” viewers who were convinced that Iraqis hijacked the 9/11 jets and flew them into the WTC and the Pentagon.
Over and over, PT Barnum is proven to be a true prophet: No one ever did go broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. And if the last two “elections” are any predictor, no one ever will.
#20 – I wish I got paid for this. Mr. Dvorak should cut me, RBG, & James Hill some of the Google Ad revenue for offering dissenting opinions. I GET NO RENUMERATION!
Furthermore, I was not advocating the practice of inflating poll numbers, but simply drawing attention to the fallibility of the tool of measurement and why no one should base any meaningful policy proposal upon the statistical results.
>>I GET NO RENUMERATION!
You might want to get back to the books, frat boy. “renumeration” would mean (if it meant anything” counting something again. I believe what you were complaining about was your lack of REMUNERATION.
As to the fallibility of the polls, sure they’re fallible. But taken with everything else we know about the debacle in Iraq, I think we’re WAY, WAY beyond reasonable doubt here.
Dumbya (and his handlers) fucked up. Period. Only the Halliburton shareholders are going to walk away from this war satisfied.
remuneration exactly.
But even with that mistake I still learned in college that: “But taken with everything else we know about the debacle in Iraq, I think we’re WAY, WAY beyond reasonable doubt here” qualifies as AWE, or assertion without evidence. See, the point of a argumentative paper is to make a claim, which you spend a lot of time doing, then support the claim with scholarly evidence, which you often miss the boat on. So if you would care to offer a more well rounded and thought provoking analysis on why the war is “already lost,” as the Democrats tried to do yesterday and today, I will gladly explain to you how General Petraeus was able to say “check” to their defeatist chess moves.
#4 Uh, no. We’re pissed because…
Yeah, I know. And I really like your posts in this thread.
But I’m mad at the “we” who keep saying that the surge was to give the politicians in Baghdad “the breathing space they need” to complete the various bits of legislation which “we” have demanded of them… and how dare Iraqi politicians take any time-off while “our” brave troops are fighting every day…
Then Dubya makes a “surprise” visit to Anbar – because 4-years on, he still can’t make an announced visit – and “summons” or “draws” al-Maliki to Anbar…
The fact that “we” – a bad-ass “superpower” – can’t openly send our President to a country we “crushed” 4-years ago… added to the fact that when Dubya does arrive, he allows the entire world to get the impression that he has told the democratically-elected Prime Minister of Iraq: “Yo, bitch! Front & center…”
Just flat pisses me off.
#4 And they can do it with the same amount of outside “help” that America had in drafting and implementing the AoC and Constitution. None.
I wish.
But Dubya & company just can’t stand the thought of the democratically-elected government of Iraq charting their own course.
>>I wish.
Who were the armed invaders/ occupiers that assisted us in creating the AoC and the Constitution?
22. mxpwr03. I’m seriously PO’d at you. I had this great response that was going to completely detail how I’m paid by Dvorak to bring in ad revenue for a small cut in a deal brokered high atop Dvorak Towers Vegas… In the hands of a master like myself it would have been classic genius. Now what am I left with?
I’m paid by “Them.”?
It’s a free public service?
Your appreciation is payment enough?
They got to me after that JFK thing too?
I was head of the Conservative Glee Club in Grade 3?
A burning Bush made me do it?
17. Mister M: Then funny how the Iraqis themselves believe security can be restored, or the Iraqi gov’t will be stronger, or their forces will operate independently enough to allow the US to go home. Some screw up.
Maybe they just need to be more politically obsessed to forget about their real-world needs.
RBG
#27 – I would go with, “Listening to TwiT and hearing Mr. Dvorak say ‘dvorak.org/blog’ billions of times,” (not that I don’t enjoy it), ” is my sirens’ call…dvorak.org…dvorak.org…dvorak.org…”
>>Then funny how the Iraqis themselves believe security can
>>be restored, or the Iraqi gov’t will be stronger, or their forces
>>will operate independently enough to allow the US to go home.
I guess I missed that part of the poll, ColorMeister. Could you do me the fine favor of pointing it out? Most of the information I’ve seen has them viewing us as assholes. After a while, some of them think the Bush-induced phenomenon known as “al Qaeda in Iraq” guys are bigger assholes than we are, but I haven’t seen the data saying they believe security can be restored, the govt. will be stronger, or their forces will operate independently.
“Some screwup” is right. That’s the brightest thing you’ve said on the topic so far.
30. As always, glad to help out.
Now look waaaay up to the top of this item. There you will see a graph.
The X axis shows the percentage of Iraqi people who support various actions resulting in an American pullout.
The Y axis indicates the specific actions they can choose to support.
Among those actions you will find the three options that I mentioned and you questioned.
They are:
Remain until security is restored
Remain until the Iraqi government is stronger
Remain until the Iraqi forces can operate independently
Based upon the “votes” received for each of the options available, these three particular options represent the greatest support and thus the will of the people with respect to how the US should withdraw.
Unless they were all just kidding.
RBG