“We are now seeing two major trends that will accelerate the growth of photovoltaics: the development of advanced technologies, and the emergence of China as a low-cost producer,” said Janet Sawin, a senior researcher at the Worldwatch Institute.
Costs could fall 40 percent in the next few years as polysilicon becomes more available, Sawin said.
More than a dozen companies in Europe, China, Japan, and the United States will boost production over the next few years of purified polysilicon, which helps panels convert sunlight into electricity, and is the main ingredient in semiconductor computer chips, according to the report.
Last year, China passed the United States to become the world’s third largest producer of solar panels, trailing only Germany and Japan.
“To say that Chinese PV producers plan to expand production rapidly in the year ahead would be an understatement,” said Travis Bradford, president of the Prometheus Institute. “They have raised billions from international IPOs to build capacity and increase scale with the goal of driving down costs”.
Living in a region with clear skies 300+ days a year, this catches my attention a lot earlier than folks in northern tier states. Lowering the cost of buy-in always makes a difference.
It will be interesting to watch designers and developers for the earliest signs of cost effectiveness. Most users of photovoltaics – in the US – are still eco-conscious small fry. The exception being firms like Google who can afford the economics of scale.
This looks like contractors will be able to build in net-metering systems from the git-go. And the DIY crowd will finally be able to afford retrofits. None of this is especially difficult to do.
Ah but you don’t need clear skies to produce electricity from solar panels. Granted you can produce more electricity on a clear but panel alignment can have just as big or bigger affect on output.
Wow, this is next to useless for people in northern states… I can see it to run an air conditioner in the summer, but in the winter we still need natural gas and fuel oil to heat our houses.
Wind on the other hand… 150 feet up I have a perpetual >12mph wind blowing. You could heat and cook with electric with that kind of potential.
Also… Hehehe, the Hybrid camry is turning out to be a full blown status symbol right about now:)
I don’t think we should have free trade. We need to put a huge tariff on Chinese goods. That should boost the price to keep those solar panel manufacturing jobs in America.
So, MikeN – you’re willing to spend how much more for your next computer – or even motorcycle?
The all-American crowd is always laughable. I won a bet with a client 30 years ago (when it was more fashionable to hate Japan), when I disconnected or removed all the Japanese parts on his Harley – and proved he couldn’t go anywhere but downhill with his red-white-and-blue status symbol.
#4- As a person in the tech manufacturing industry I’ve seen many friends jobs move to China (at 54 yrs old I’m now told my own job will be gone in about a year) so I usually share your sentiments.
In this case however I invite the Chinese competition because the oil companies have too long stifled solar development. They test the limits by raising prices to the point where solar becomes almost cost effective, then once solar development gets started it’s oops, time to lower the price of petro-fuels.
I do feel sorry for folks in higher latitudes because oil companies will not stand to make less money. They will simply balance their budgets off the backs of the ratepayers in the northern states.
GregA – the South uses more electricity than the North. Also buy really big stickers HYBRID for your car. I’m adding stickers to my Prius.
The Real Story with Solar Panels – is what should really grab America’s attention. Huge revenue loss for the US.
Not too long ago, ALL solar panels were produced in the States. With the shift to China, maybe some R & D will stay in the US…but face it.
Consumers want cheap – that means a huge potential lost by the US to become world leaders in voltaics.
Yet, there are huge subsidies for finding oil, etc, etc. Disappointing decisions. Just like LED’s and other high-tech items mass produced in China with slave labor.
So be happy to buy super-cheap panels from Walmart in a few years, and subsidizing the oil industry with your taxes.
How will lowering your house electricity and driving big cars really help?
BOO YAH!
here in the garden state, the govn’t is offering sick rebates — one dude i know put up panels on his roof for a net cost of $6,000, and he sells back to the grid to the tune of $300/mo.
it’s about damned time that the american entrepreneurial spirit and the desire to to have cleaner air to breathe got together!
this is the sort of thing even republicans can get behind!
KUDOS!!
Huh, I thought MikeN was being sarcastic – basically saying that protectionism should kill this tech by boosting the price.
But anyway, yes this is an excellent development. As noted, not much use to those of us in cloud-land, but the sunny climes use lots of electricity and can look to cut into consumption and costs.
I agree with MikeN that China PV imports be tariffed, with the money going to American PV makers so that they can build on-par ASAP.
If an American PV plant builds at China Cost + 10%, and the China PV plus shipping = American PV, then it’s a fair market.
Moving existing PV technology to China will kill R & D, meaning China’s solar PV’s won’t ever be more efficient – just extremely cheap.
So do you want a market saturated with cheap Gen-1 PV’s or promote Gen-2’s or Gen-3’s?
China is now the old Japan copiers – not innovators. If there’s no $$$ to make the American PV’ers will sell-out or die, which would be a shame.
Imposing Tarifs is meant as a temporary stop-gap measure for a few years, giving the American PV’ers X years to catch up with a better product.
Then the consumer could choose to plaster his entire roof with cheap Gen-1 or only a quarter of his roof with more expensive Gen-2 PV’s.
#10 — “Moving existing PV technology to China will kill R & D, meaning China’s solar PV’s won’t ever be more efficient – just extremely cheap.”
As long as the system can fit on my roof, then I don’t give a damn about efficency. But if I can’t recover the installation cost in less than 5 years, chances are I’m not going to install it.
I’ve been waiting 30 years for American business to provide affordable solar power. Sorry, but I can’t work up any enthusiasm for protecting this industry from Chinese competition. I want to tell my electric company to stick it. I truly hope the Chinese give me that opportunity.
Very interesting post. Good find, Eideard.
I’d pony up for this here in Utah. Good way to save money, and a good way to power those electric cars….
#3 – …as long as the status symbol doesn’t say “easy to pass”.
Umm, Someone should point this out… The manufacturing processes for the PV factories (most factories as far as I can tell) are all made in America… So as long as the IP work is done here, the China product will always be a generation behind.
While the automobile factory workers around these parts are suffering (michigan at just about 10% unemployment right now) every one I know who works at an engineering firm that builds or services the factory systems is doing great. There will however be a change over period from building cars, to building machines that build cars(or pv’s or whatever).
Im not worried about that long term. But yeah, is suck short term if you are affected.
#13 – So as long as the IP work is done here, the China product will always be a generation behind.
Yes, as long as…
And being 1-generation behind will mean what, efficiency-wise?
How many ft^2 of panels difference will there be to get the same amount of power?
Will people pay a premium for better efficiency [smaller panel- area required] , or gladly pay less for the “tipping-point” generation of panels that will fit on the average house’s roof?
—-
I work in US-based semiconductor manufacturing, and we are constantly reminded of how our price-per-wafer fares against off-shore foundry pricing. We either keep our costs down, and efficiency up – or it is cheaper for our company to hire off-shore contractors to do the work.
#12,
Just for you I’ll brag when you go fill up your gas guzzler later today and are paying 3.50 gallon. Right now my tank average says 43.6. I’v been driving on the rural highways a lot recently. What are you getting?? 17, 20, maybe 25 if you are in some tiny 4 cylinder thing?
James Hill I just love passing in the left lane with my Prius. The handling is wonderful, lots of pickup speed to pass when already doing 70Mph. For an Automatic.
Plus I get to go as fast as those Benz & BMW’s while using half the gas. I get a kick out of that.
The Camry handling is even better, and where GregA gets 43 – I get 46. Both our cars cost the same base price too.
As for solar panels coming to a house near you, cheap Gen-1’s will only benefit the sun belt where population is the highest and the price of electricity is the highest – so you basically resell your daytime production (meter runs backward) and then you consume at night (meter runs normal). No batteries required.
Here in Quebec where hydro-electricity, home & commercial is typically 0.05 a KWH (in Can$), the only reason for solar is for a great expensive UPS system. Wind is better.
Instead my Prius is (will be) my UPS system for my office & home for our frequent power outages. Cheaper than using a regular car + gas generator & power conditioner system. See http://www.priups.com
This type of thing is great news. It is of utmost importance to reduce the price of energy production so we don’t have to reduce energy usage. (No sarcasm intended).
Greg, can your vehicle haul 4 adults with a weeks worth of camping gear from Wisonsin to Wyoming in one day and from 75+mph uphill, accelerate to pass a slowpoke?
I have no problem with new engine designs, I just wish they’d concentrate on something the size of a Surburban. Make it more efficient, but not less powerful or more expensive.
Back to solar panels, even in the northern tier, there are plenty of well lit days that you can get a significant energy boost. Cost has always been the kicker – especially for a retrofit. Takes an entire lifetime to actually get payback at the moment.
#18,
When I want to do that, I’ll just rent one for the weekend rather than driving it all over the place every day. But even then, different strokes for different folks. Last year my “camping” experience was at a luxury resort on Mackinac Island. Primitive camping is not my thing… (I should post pictures of my wyoming trip where I look all pale and pasty from altitude sickness.
Besides with all the money I am saving on gas (Right now $50-$100 a week compared to the murano I drove last year) I’ll be able to do tropical island vacations instead of weekend getaways. But then I have a brand new lake house (with jetski and coming soon a ski boat)
But sure dude! We should get together and compare vacation notes some time. I bet you have a nicer tv than me though…
Here’s more China & US nonsense to further this debate.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/18810591
Quote : “amid growing anger in the U.S. Congress over China’s huge trade surplus.”
Now, if America absolutely wants to give away jobs to a communist country, through inaction, why does it have to be halfway around the world?
There’s Cuba at a stone’s throw.
Or setup the manufacturing in Puerto-Rico, lots of people there willing to work for minimum wage + benefits.
But oh no, making America’s poor, or it’s poor neighbors is out of the question right?
Instead China will flood the world market, giving them power, while giving the wrong impression to individuals of making them richer with cheaper products.
Read the article I linked to !!!
If you’re rich enough to drive a monster uphill at 75Mph, you’re rich enough to subsidize jobs for your fellow Americans.
TheGlobalWarmer – admit it, you’d put up the panels just to bounce sunlight to a particular neighbor at a particular time of day . . .
FWIW – setting up four cheap door mirrors to bounce sunlight at a single panel is more cost-effective that using four panels – or a tracking system.
The “bounce-up” technique, where from the ground you place mirrors in a circle bouncing light to a PV that is upside-down and placed higher than the mirrors.
On the PV’s back you then put radiator grills to diffuse the heat buildup.
Well, at least PV panels won’t poison any people/pets.
This will be cool if it becomes economically viable (meaning it doesn’t cost you more to deal with the solar panels than just buying the electricity from the power company).
Govt subsidies does not equal ‘economically viable’. You’re still paying for it, actually all of us are, just in a different way.
Still, it (finally) shows promise. One thing that is economically viable (solar wise) is solar-powered water-heater panels. That makes sense and cents.
The last time I checked into photo-voltaic panels for my roof (about 5 years ago) the folks involved were mainly of these varieties:
* All power companies are evil – want to be off the grid
* I love mother earth – I don’t want to use her resources
* Hobbyists.
No one was saving more money than they spent. I got one answer for an inquiry from a guy who said, “Yeah, this doesn’t make financial sense at this point because your best hope is to break even in about 20 years at which time it’ll be time to replace a good bit of the equipment”.
Mark,
I think you are talking about solar concentrators. They assume that pv cells will continue to be very expensive. They have drawbacks that are very hard to over come. Two things come to mind. Parabolic front surface optical grade mirrors are very expensive(have to be optical grade or else they dont concentrate very well). Also they need a mechanical system to keep them pointed at sun.
Also the cutting edge stuff in solar concentrators seem to be happening with Stirling engines rather than pv cells. That way you are harnessing a broader wavelength of energy from the sun. PV cells really only use a narrow band of energy, ignoring most of the abundant ir band.
PV cells are not even the best way to harness sun energy. What they are is very low maintenance. Usually with wind turbines and solar concentrators, there is a mechanical system in place that has to be maintained for them to work properly and safely.
But to the economics of it all… I don’t see the problem with having the cells made where they make the most economic sense. I say that and i live in Michigan of all places. The people I know with educations seem to be doing all right. It is the people who thought they would be able to work a single job on a car assembly line all their lives that are having trouble.
For example, I have a very good friend who was laid off recently from Chrysler, got a job almost right away with a company that makes and exports boilers. He has a degree in engineering… While the people I know with degrees (or no degree) in the finer art of being a pussy are all strugling. Go figure.
#16 – I’m not poor, and I drive a car that doesn’t even have to work hard to go past 70.
Just because your car is a status symbol that says nothing good about you is no reason to get pissy.
I think this is great news, with the obvious caveat that it’s too bad all we can produce here are Freedom Fries.
A university student did a test with a single PV upside down, with cheap 5$ door mirrors (like for a bedroom). Just pure reflection.
He tripled the electricity output on the PV, making it very cost effective.
Can’t find a web link for you guys – Google has let me down.
Anyhow, James Hill, a test drive at your local Toyota Dealer. The Camry Hybrid has more power than the Prius. Use CageMatch forum & share your POV, which I always enjoy reading.
You don’t have to pulse & glide – that’s only for mileage maniacs 🙂
Please, please, don’t remind me of pulse and glide. The only time I nearly was carsick was driving with a friend back when Saabs had 3-cylinder, 2-cycle engines. Ugh.
#23 – Govt subsidies does not equal ‘economically viable’. You’re still paying for it, actually all of us are, just in a different way.
You say “pay for”
I say “invest in”
It’s all good.
Meanwhile, this afternoon:
1. I visited a contractor I did lots of work for before retirement – and he’s ready to ramp up PV in addition to the wind generators I turned him onto.
2. The downer of the day was visiting 4 dealerships in an auto park – 1 US, i German, 2 Japanese, all of whom offer diesel power with low consumption and high torque – outside the U.S.. Uniformly, none expected to be able to offer me anything in 2008, here in the States.
I would buy a Dodge Dakota with a small Mercedes turbo-diesel, tomorrow. I’ll bet there will be nothing like that offered in the next 3 model years – even though Daimler has shown vehicles like the Sprinter powered with TDI or diesel-hybrids at Euro Shows for 4 years, now.
Same for Toyota, Mitsubishi, Ford, etc.. Phaugh!
But, I do plan on being close to off-the grid in another 3-4 years. Screw it. I’ll just stay home and leave my truck in the garage.
Sorry for wandering so far OT at my own Post. Like I said, the afternoon started off fine.
Chatting with local vehicle retailers always pisses me off.