Is the Sun to blame?
An experiment that hints we are wrong on climate change-News-UK-TimesOnline — Can’t we just all get along? This is by Nigel Calder the former editor of the New Scientist. Watch Al Gore win an Oscar for his movie anyway along with the Dixie Chicks.
When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works. We were treated to another dose of it recently when the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Summary for Policymakers that puts the political spin on an unfinished scientific dossier on climate change due for publication in a few months’ time. They declared that most of the rise in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases.
The small print explains “very likely” as meaning that the experts who made the judgment felt 90% sure about it…a 10% uncertainty in any theory is a wide open breach for any latterday Galileo or Einstein to storm through with a better idea. That is how science really works.
So one awkward question you can ask, when you’re forking out those extra taxes for climate change, is “Why is east Antarctica getting colder?” It makes no sense at all if carbon dioxide is driving global warming. While you’re at it, you might inquire whether Gordon Brown will give you a refund if it’s confirmed that global warming has stopped. The best measurements of global air temperatures come from American weather satellites, and they show wobbles but no overall change since 1999.
That levelling off is just what is expected by the chief rival hypothesis, which says that the sun drives climate changes more emphatically than greenhouse gases do. After becoming much more active during the 20th century, the sun now stands at a high but roughly level state of activity. Solar physicists warn of possible global cooling, should the sun revert to the lazier mood it was in during the Little Ice Age 300 years ago. Climate history and related archeology give solid support to the solar hypothesis.
thanks to Mad Dog Mike
one paper that HINTS that we may be incorrect about climate change, is not enough to challenge the scientific consensus
I don’t think we have enough data to conclude that global warming is a long term trend and not a blip. Lets revisit this issue in a thousand years or so when we have more data.
#29 – You’re more than welcomed to put up a windmill in your backyard. More precious, precious oil for me! Muahahaha!
OK, Steve, fine. All of those icebergs and glaciers are melting at a never before seen rate because of. . . ? I don’t care a whit about long term trends when major changes are happening before our very eyes! If we continue to take the “head meets sand” method of problem solving, I doubt our species will make another thousand years.
realclimate.org has a good writeup on this article
“Even if the evidence for solar forcing were legitimate, any bizarre calculus that takes evidence for solar forcing of climate as evidence against greenhouse gases for current climate change is simply wrong. Whether cosmic rays are correlated with climate or not, they have been regularly measured by the neutron monitor at Climax Station (Colorado) since 1953 and show no long term trend. No trend = no explanation for current changes.”
All this quotation of science reminds me of the phrase.
“”50% of all statistics are bogus…””
So I don’t know what to think.
But wait. the phrase itself is a statistic so it may be bogus. But if it is true, then it still has a 50/50 chance of being bogus?
I still don’t know what to think.
#13 – If it requires us to drive smaller vehicles, have smaller houses, smaller yards, use mass transit, reduce urban sprawl, the cost of living goes up, etc. then the price is too high because it would no longer be worthwhile to be alive anyway.
Global Warming (TM) is no longer science and has become a religion and a social engineering tool. I say bring it on and fry us, but at least we get to live before we go out.
#21 – I can just imagine a gigawatt power beaming satellite having its control signals decrypted and ‘hijacked’ by any number of groups who would enjoy turning the focus onto any one of the worlds major cities – ‘Manhattan as a microwave oven’ is not worth saving any amount of CO2 emissions – Just build enough Nuclear stations down here on the planet!
#32
I was, of course, making a joke but my point is, it is just as harmful (if not more so) to rush out, overreact and do something stupid before getting all the facts as it is to do nothing at all. Case in point:
http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=9533
As far as the solar hypothesis goes, the one bit of irrefutable evidence is that the other planets are heating up too. This is not a complex experiment, you just take the spectrum of the celestial body. If you think that cosmic rays are the only thing the sun gives off, um, you’re wrong? How about all sorts of waves all across the electromagnetic spectra (from radio to microwaves to ROYGBIV)? Cosmic rays only include protons, electrons and other atomic particles.
But it all doesn’t matter. We need to do something, besides worry about our way of life, or thinking that life without your McMansion isn’t worth living. If that is your choice, shoot yourself now and save us all the burden of supporting your foolish priorities. As Kung-Tzu said, “Luxuries and titles in the midst of injustice are like floating clouds.”
How about this modest proposal… we let the Euro-greenies turn off technological civilization in the EU alone and revert to a hair shirt existence there, while the rest of the world continues to advance.
We can send an expedition to France in 2507 to check out the caves and see how it’s working out for them if any remain alive.
Most pollution comes from China, Russia, and other quasi-industrialised/non-watcheddog nations. I personally believe that climate change isn’t caused by man. It could be influenced slightly, but not caused. That said, I am ALL for stopping pollution. I’d go full on electric or solar today, if it were reasonably priced and reliable. My car gets 30mpg, but I’d love an 80mpg VW diesel like they have in Europe (makes the pious Prius look shabby, eh?). But, I think everyone would like to stop pollution. We’re all just a bit tired of the leftist alarmism and the rightist indifference.
Ok,Everyone who doesn’t contribute to atmospheric pollution and global warming raise your hand
if it was wholly debunked why are there still arguments?
John, I expected more from you than that. By that reasoning – Creationists/ID & Young Earth Theorists have a point because “there are still arguments”. Please tell me you wouldn’t agree with them too?
Plus – nice attempt at an Ad Hominum there as well. I’m not saying we shouldn’t discuss the problems in the theories – but that article doesn’t do that.
The science in the article is ok, but the reasoning and conclusions are poor at best, dishonest at worst. State of Fear has been completely trashed in the same way that ID has – for quote mining, selective data use, and mis-representation of data.
The fact that the claims in this article are almost identical to the claims in the novel mean that the same criticisms apply to it.
I’m not saying the science is as clear cut or predictive as ToE, but it is a comparable situation.
It just strikes me as odd all of the time, money, debate, and betting the future economy of the civilized world is going on regarding something that may or may not happen thousands of years from now.
Meanwhile in other news:
China is becoming a huge economic and military power with ambitions to rule or heavily influence pan-asia.
Iran is pursuing nucear tech for “peaceful purposes” i.e. as soon as we destroy israel, we will be all peaceful like.
We are actively funding the terrorist states and the unstable middle east by sustaining a massive energy deficit here in the US, meanwhile nuclear pwer seems to be a dirty word. We are literally held hostage by our own hand.
The radical islamics threaten to and dream of ending western civilization and seem to be suceeding somewhat. Look at the liberties, freedoms, and cultural changes that are happening in the US, UK, and EU.
The national trade decifict along with the national debt could bankrupt the US in a period of years. If the US goes bankrupt (or we already are and the world realizes it) it really isnt going to matter if you drive a prius or a hummer.
Shouldnt we be concentrating on REAL short term threats to our existence? Lets prioritize the threats.
Nigel Calder is no more a climatologist than Al Gore is.
At best, he’s a journo-instigator, like our beloved
blog-mom here, JCD. Watch him win a science award
of some stature anyways, along with Naturalist/Statesman
Ted Nugent, sponsored no doubt, by British Petroleum.
(I’m getting a little tired of rightwing “Libertarians” doing
the double-speak of accusing liberals of monetary
agendas (of dubious attribution), when they practically
get gold cards mailed to them every month by oil
companies themselves.)
#43 JHS
We all have very different impacts on carbon emission.
Calculate yours.
http://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.html
FYI my footprint is 9.671, and I deliberatly over estimated some factors.
Asking us to have faith that science can predict what the weather will be like in 500 years is asking a lot when those same scientists cannot predict with any reasonable accuracy what the weather will be like next week.
Have you noticed that the people that believe in global warming, you know rising sea levels and flooded coasts, are the same ones that want to rebuild New Orleans?
Steve S,
I predict that this summer the temperatures will be significantly warmer than they are now. I am right, and your argument is totally destroyed.
Got anything else?
GregA
Even a trained monkey with a flipping coin will be right some of the time. As will someone who makes a predication that is obvious and likely. I am talking about consistent reliable climate trend predication which does not exist at this time.
#27 – JCD, yeah thats what i was getting at – industrial fertilizer
[violation of posting guidelines]
thomas,
You are way more optimistic about the situation than I am. The sad fact of the matter is, warming is underway, it is just a question of when we start feeling the effects of it, and what will those effects be.
Right now the human populations of the world are settled where the current climates are good for human living. As the climate changes, the best areas to live are also going to change. As people move from the old places to the new places, it is going to cause cultural and economic upheaval. It is going to occur on a global scale.
Katrina was just the dress rehearsal.
#54 – time to sell your beach front property and buy a chateau in the mountains!
Let me posit my own theory for global warming.
We all know the “Heat Island” effect cities experience. That is their temperature is considerably higher then the suburbs, due to the increased density black surfaces (pavement, roof tops) and blanket of smog above them.
Since the size and density of cities have been growing the the same time frame as global warming has occurred, we have a correlation.
But as we all know (should know) correlation doesn’t equal causation.
I hope the Nobel committee reads my above scientific trendy. I’ve already have my speech ready.
As a side note, instead of spending Trillions (1000X billion) of dollars to protect oil industry profits in the Persian golf, why not spend a fraction of that money to speed up the research into fusion, making it a reality sooner?
#56 or much much less painting the roofs and the asphalt white… 🙂
#56,
…why not spend a fraction of that money to speed up the research into fusion, …
Talking to my wife again?
Greenhouse gases: It’s not the cars it’s the cows (c.f. http://talk.livedaily.com/showthread.php?t=558643).
What’s next? Catalysts for cows?
herb,
Im glad you have come around and see things as animal rights activists. I cant imagine a stronger case for a meat free life style. Those cows wouldnt be release their environment damaging gases if we didn’t eat them.
Be a vegatarian and help save the world!
Then would could use all that farmland as fuel for Nascar!