Reap the whirlwind!
U.S. dominance in the Middle East has ended, giving way to a new era in the modern history of the region amid growing anti-American sentiment. This is the conclusion of a study by Richard N. Haas in an article titled “The New Middle East”.
Expectations of a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Middle East based on the European model “will not be realized,” says Haas. “Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself, the United States, and the world.”
Haas writes that the most significant factor contributing to the end of this era has been “the Bush administration’s decision to attack Iraq in 2003 and its conduct of the operation and resulting occupation.”
In the Middle East’s new era the United States will be challenged by China, Russia and the European Union. “Iran will be one of the two most powerful states in the region,” says Haas. Iran “is the most powerful external influence in Iraq, and holds considerable sway over both Hamas and Hezbollah.”
Israel, the only country in the region with a nuclear arsenal, still “is in a weaker position today than it was before this summer’s crisis in Lebanon.”
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other large oil producers will benefit from the rising price of oil, which Haas believes is “far more likely to exceed $100 (per barrel) than it is to fall below $40.”
Haas further predicts “Iraq, traditionally a center of Arab power, will remain messy for years to come, with a weak central government, a divided society, and regular sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state wracked by an all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.”
The author of the report cautions U.S. policymakers not to be over reliant on brute military force. He points to two instances where two superior powers — the U.S. in Iraq and Israel in Lebanon — were unable to achieve their objectives. Secondly, cautions Haas, it would be a mistake “to count on the emergence of democracy to pacify the region.”
Creating mature democracies is no easy task, says Haas. If and when the experiment succeeds it takes decades.
I doubt if any of this will satisfy Liberals any more than neo-con reactionaries. Most American politicians believe in Magic Bullets and the John Wayne/Walt Disney theory of history.
Bush’s First mistake was to naively think that a people who desire and **seemingly** blindly follow religious edict would accept an all-inclusive secular form of representative government based upon western European ideas of rights and equality. His second was to believe that nationalism is a stronger force in the Middle East than tribalism.
And how is this different from the old Middle East? Iran was rounding up demonstrations against America decades ago, and Palestinians cheered after 9/11. We keep hearing new reasons for growing anti-American sentiment. After awhile, you would think it would stop growing.
Not necessarily. Democracy isn’t impossible… we kind of quashed it in Iran. But getting a nation halfway across the world to obey our national interests rather than their own IS absurd.
He has a point. When we charge in with tanks and cluster bombs to disrupt the region for no reason whatsoever, its in every nearby nation’s national interest to hate our guts.
He points to two instances where two superior powers — the U.S. in Iraq and Israel in Lebanon…
Only the two most recent examples…
My current favorite is Afghanistan. We gleefully supplied the “freedom fighters” there against the Russiians, which China taught us how to do when we were in Vietnam…
Now, we’re mad the “fredom fighters’ are still fighting for “fredom”, but now against NATO forces, insted of the pesky rooskies…
…but we’ve re-affirmed our commitment… 🙁
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/29/news/nato.php
Um.. Sometimes it seems I’m the only one who remembers when Bush took office he basically said, “Screw this roadmap to peace. Work it out amongst yourselves, Middle Easterners.”
good grief
when are people going to realize that humans only really care about freedom when they prevented from doing something and that they rarely contemplate freedom in the abstract?
americans honestly are trying to build a lasting peace and and to bring freedom to the middle east. but unfortunately, in the interim, we have unleashed anarchy and violence.
and any group that beats us in providing safety from harm in daily life and providing basic amenities will gain the allegiance of the people.
this is how the taliban and hamas came to power
this is also why republcans work so hard to stoke the americans’ fear of terrorism — to ensure that they won’t mind losing their liberty here in the states.
This precisely why we shouldn’t be pussyfooting around – nuke the whole place to glass.
at this point does it matter much anymore. the oil reserves in the Middle east are running out and when they finally do run out, will any nation state care what happenes in that region short of clear support of Israel.
My Prediction, when the oil runs out, the middle east will become the new africa. and we all know how much the world cares about afriican affairs just look at DAFUR, SOMOLIA, ETHOPIA.
7. UHHH, I’m speechless. How did you find your way out of the shower this morn…..oh never mind.
#4
Fully agreed, Mike. When it’s the U.S. supporting a terrorist organization, they’re Freedom Fighters, but if the enemy is supporting a terrorist organization, they’re called Terrorists. In either case, the civilians are the ones to suffer…
Geez….I guess the last 75 years of stupis mistakes by all western nations in the Middle East had nothing to do with the present situation there. Bush and his war is just the latest. The Arabs and Muslims thrive on discension and tribal war, they have for 2100 years and will for the next 2100 years.
All these doom and gloom predictions are worth the paper they are written on, if that. Every author or pundit in the world makes them and when he or she is wrong, just blithly go on to the next one.
Is there going to democracy in Iraq….hell no.
Is there going to be peace in the Middle East…hell no.
Is anti-American hatred going to increase, how can it?
Will there be anti_whomever is the next big power by Muslims…..hell yes
Muslim countries regularly call the U.S. the devil, criminals etc., etc…..but who in the hell do they scream for when they need help? If we are so hated…..why do all the major Muslim countries want the U.S. to broker peace in Palistine, or any number of places?
Sorry….Bush is an idiot, his policy’s are a joke, but when push comes to shove, it’s the good ole USA that gets the call to spend it’s money, time and young peoples lives to bail all of these a-holes out.
I guess I’m just fed up with hearing from people all over the place what a bunch of militeristic sob’s we Americans are, when I know for a fact that most Americans are good people, who would do anything to help others in need and go back for more when the needy kick us in the teeth.
STILL
Looks like a KKK meeting..
The new Middle East is different from the Middle East of the 1950s.
There was trouble enough and war but not like now. The slow and steady decline of the Middle East is reaching out to effect the world. In 1951 only a handful of people cared a fig about Sunni and Shiite and Iran/Iraq/Arabia ect. Israel was also notthat pressing an issue here in the USA and Europe.
An American President Eisenhower was welcomed in Afghanistan with flowers and cheering crowds in an open car without the capitol being on lock down.
The recent Middle East is not secure for American and European interests. It is also not secure for the people of the region without outside influence anymore. All the leaders are fearful and engaged in anti-democratic practices. Our allies as well as our enemies are acting in ways that Americans and Europeans would not like at home.
Iraq? Well what can we say?
The New Middle East can drift into being more of a mess. If it is to be better and thus less of a problem for everyone else, the people there have to do a better job on their own to grow up and get competitive rather than fight each other. The outside nations the USA and Europe among these, could do the best help by not sending in more weapons to any side.
The international trade in arms from China and Russia and the USA and France and England has created this decline in large part. No?
The international power and oil money politics supplied the religious fanatics of the Middle East, including Israel, with the means to not seek peace. Outside money and arms have allowed local Middle Eastern religious fanatics access to influence and war making ability.
The situation now is not military, it is more like the subtle and dangerous act of dismantling a bomb. Ending our dependence on oil for energy is part of taking that bomb apart. End oil dependence and the power supply wire of that bomb is cut.
Because of decades of power politics and oil dependence the bomb will remain packed with power and danger for more decades. But it could dwindle away over time if outside forces made the people of the Middle East deal with their own issues without resort to bombs and guns and torture.
How do we safely remove our hand once we have stuck it in there? It cannot be on the basis of political bullshit meant for TV sound bites. The situation is not ours it is theirs over in the Middle East, though we have claimed it.
To help the situation we have to be careful. The idea that we can nuke the region or occupy Iraq or manage and bribe the people there for more decades is not going to work. We do not have a steady enough hand to have a decent consistent policy over decades.
At least this is my stupid opinion.