Elementary, my dear Watson. The economy is going up because corporate profits are going up because they are paying less for workers who, if they live in this country, are making less (either under-inflation wage hikes or only low wage jobs available) while seeing those corporations getting rich as they themselves are working more hours and driving longer to get to those crappy jobs.
You add Iraq where now 64% don’t want to “stay the course,” the ridiculously low approval rating of 23% for the Republican led Congress and all the Dems have to do is not do anything stupid between now and the election to win in a few weeks. So what’s Bush doing to reverse the crash? In the wake of Foley, corruption scandals, the Kuo revelations and on and on with his party’s people, he’s declared this is National Character Counts Week. Yeah, that should do it.
Good Economic News Doesn’t Help GOP
Gas prices are down, the stock market is at a record high and 60 percent of Americans say the economy is in good shape. So why are Republicans in so much trouble?
But what about gas prices? Republican pollster David Winston has long thought they were a big source of Republican woes and if they came down Republicans would have an easier time of it. Cook feels gas prices seem to have “hurt Republicans when they were going up and helped when they were going down,” but that the phenomenon was “distinct from a broader economic concern that the Republicans were favoring the other economy that has been doing so well.” Democratic pollster Diane Feldman took it a step further. Her research has found that many voters “think the Republicans manipulate gas prices.” Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.
In an important book published this fall, “Applebee’s America,” the authors, […] throw cold water on the “Economy Drives the Vote” theory. In a chapter entitled “Values Trump the Economy,” they argue that people vote with their hearts not their heads and are hungry for a “gut value connection” with political leaders. Voters are searching for community and authenticity, and leaders who are able to persuade them that they care about voters and convince them that “we are all in this together” will be successful.
This time, it’s not just the economy, stupid!
I believe you give the American public too much credit. As a whole, they apathetic to who’s governing. Worse yet, vulnerable to this administrations tactics of using fear and division as a tool.
Let’s face it, all Karl Rove has to do is turn the fear knob just a tad, instruct Fox News to show some gay pride parade videos and have Bush visit the Pope.
IMHO, you are woefully underestimating the lengths this administration and it’s corporate supporters will go to stay in power.
This may apply to Congressional seats that are traditionally close races on partisan lines. It may serve as a warning to the RNC to force the Administration to announce an exit time line for Iraq. I live in a red state. People here fear higher taxes, environmental lunacy, liberal giveaways, terrorism, and Hilliary. By the way my wife’s family are die hard Republicans and they refer to me as the commie bastard. I take the high road, so I can drop rocks on their heads. 😉
The economy is going up because bush’s friends in the house of saud are keeping oil prices low until after the election.
I think the oil prices are just an artificial blip. They kept telling us how we could expect $100 a barrel oil prices. With all the other crap and lies being pinned on the Republicans, too many people are too skeptical to believe they will stay low.
#1, Dallas, you make a valid point, but are the same Americans that fell for Rove’s tricks in the past ready to fall for them again. I feel too much pent up anger against Bush, as well the the Republican led Congress, to think anything short of the second coming and a direct endorsement could change their attitudes.
anything short of the second coming and a direct endorsement could change their attitudes
It might not matter if they have enough voting machines rigged. Maybe Karl Rove has good reason to be optimistic about midterms.
whoa… easy there big fella… back up… beep… beep.. beep… you said “all the Dems have to do is not do anything stupid between now and the election”. you really think the dems can keep from stepping on a “gay marriage/ abortion/ birthcontrol for preschoolers” kind of debate landmine by then??? all that has to happen is for hillary to rear her head and bam! i personally think north korea is going to bail these boobs out … ppl dont like to change horses in the middle of a war.
faustus — that last sentence is the worst mixed metaphor I’ve seen in a long time. 🙂
faustus, it worked for Reagan and Iran…what if the Dems said, Bush is a waffling pansy so we’re going to North Korea and we’re going to kick their butts back to 1745…we’ll give them nukes, yes we will…
“The economy is going up because corporate profits are going up because they are paying less for workers who, if they live in this country, are making less (either under-inflation wage hikes or only low wage jobs available) while seeing those corporations getting rich as they themselves are working more hours and driving longer to get to those crappy jobs.”
Geez, you really ought to get your facts straight, John.
Real average weekly earnings rose by 1.0 percent from August to September after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This increase stemmed from a 0.2 percent rise in average hourly earnings and a 0.7 percent decline in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average weekly hours were unchanged.
Average weekly earnings rose by 4.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from September 2005 to September 2006. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly earnings increased by 2.2 percent.
The only problem with this blog is that you guys hate on republicans to much. Democrats arent perfect either. (im 16 btw)
“all the Dems have to do is not do anything stupid” — I’m a pretty liberal guy, but the Dems are famously stupid. I wouldn’t make book on this election either way.
I dunno, with the elections being fixed by Diebold, I think that there is a myth that there will ever be fair elections in this country. Not just Diebold, but other corporations’ best interests are in keeping the Republican dollars flowing to them, so it pays for them to fix the elections.
We shall see in November, but I am extremely pessimistic.
I’ve never seen so many frightened little girls cower at one man’s name before.
If Rove was half as powerful as you are afraid that he is, we’d be halfway through an openly declared war with another superpower just so he could get a republican house in 2006.
Hey, do you shake a little when you say his name?
#9 HAR. I ought to get my facts straight? I didn’t even post this. Maybe YOU SHOULD get YOUR facts straight. Cripes.
wow, this joint is LOADED w/ liberal conspiracy theorists…quite amusing really
#9 #14 It’s all a big conspiracy.
un K le-D a V e — and
john-c-D V ora K
see, they’ve got the same letters in their names, except the unpronouncable R in Dvorak, and we all know where THAT comes from. Probably descended from the secret lovechild of Sylvia Pankhurst and J.S. Woodsworth. Comrade Pankhurst and Reverend Woodsworth. A Brit and a Canadian. They’re everywhere. Brothers in arms.
Grin.
OOOO scarey….. Liberal conspiracy theorists…
I’m content with 6 out of 8 years of Republican leadership, if they still control the House & Senate after November that is even better, but if not oh well everbody misses once and a while. I’m curious to see what the Democrats will do, because it seems to me that the die has already been cast.
#10 – The only problem with this blog is that you guys hate on republicans to much. Democrats arent perfect either. (im 16 btw)
Comment by Scott — 10/18/2006 @ 7:25 am
Then you should study harder in school. “Hate on” is an embarrassing butchery of English. Further, we “hate on” Republicans “too” much, not “to” much. By the way, Republican is a proper noun. Just because they are evil doesn’t mean we give them lowercase letters. We show respect to our adversaries.
#18, I’m curious to see what the Democrats will do, because it seems to me that the die has already been cast.
Comment by mxpwr03 — 10/18/2006 @ 10:44 am
With the new Congress in January, I expect to see some very disturbing clashes between the White House and Congress. Hearings will be held asking some very hard questions and the answers won’t be willingly forthcoming. Records will be subpoenaed and Bush will fight them all the way to the Supreme Court.
By the time 2008 rolls around, any Republican that once affiliated himself with Bush will be crawling under a rock to hide from the fallout. The 2008 Presidential candidates will never have even heard of some guy named shrub.
Sounds like typical domestic politics, but I would hope that if the Democrats win that they would legislate rather than denigrate. As a side note, that comment was directed at foreign policy not domestic.
BREAKING NEWS: (from The New York Times, 10/18/06, 4pm)
Dow Jones Briefly Passes 12,000, a First
The Republicans AND the Democrats serve only one God, and that God is The Market. No ifs, ands, or buts.
The big difference is that Democrats do it with higher ethics and more inclusion of the common people than the Republicans do.
What do you mean by common people?
#3. I think most reputable people agree that it was the commodities speculators who drove up the price of oil last year. And with the repeat of last years hurricane season that never materialized along with a worldwide slowing of oil consumption and the end to the peak summer season in the US and finally with current NOAA predictions of a mild winter; oil prices had nowhere to go but down.
Corporate tax revenue is way up. Isn’t that a good thing? Yay capitalism!
#24I think most reputable people agree that it was the commodities speculators who drove up the price of oil last year.
…
Comment by Mike — 10/18/2006 @ 1:05 pm
Most reputable people blame the oil companies. They are the ones who jacked up the price and profited from the high cost. Most normal people see the oil prices coming down because their good buddies, the Republicans, are in deep doo doo.
Why are the oil companies to blame? Blame the exogenous market forces if anything! Are you in favor of a price ceiling to stop them from raising the cost?
Oil companies are like any other profit-making company, they maximize profits by setting marginal revenue=marginal cost in the short-term. If an exogenous force, an increase in demand (from China/India), disrupts the equilibrium causing the price to increase. This out-of-equilibrium Q*,P* production formula causes MR>MC in the short-term generating a large profit. Mike was correct in his analysis because he correctly pointed out that speculators incorrectly thought there would be a decrease in supply, causing prices to go even higher.
Oh and as a smart forward looking investor, one should have seen this coming years back and invested in these companies to get capital back from those excess profits.
I love how people talk about speculators as if they are somehow separate from big oil! You set up some offshore unit at bank-in-a-box and speculate on your own oil of course. As the producer you are in the best position to do it! And then there’s the large blocks of stock owned by producing countries. Conflict of interest laws in Saudi Arabia? I don’t think so!
A plausible scenario but how much of a percentage of global supply would these “speculators” control, as you seem to imply. I would estimate it to be negligible at best. The fact that China and India are steadily increasing their consumption of oil would seem to contribute stronger evidence towards the relative price rise over the past six years.
For the first time this year, I can actually see the Republicans losing the House. I figure maybe 16 to 21 seat pick up by the Democrats. But I still wouldn’t bet the farm on it, the Democrats are to famous for screwing up a sure thing, combine that with events taking place in N.Korea and Iran and the Economy, and I can see the Republicans saving their ass by a seat or two.
The Senate is probably going to be 51 Republicans, maybe 52.
For Roc and the others who think all is controlled by the evil corps and the Republicans, you guys need to get out of the 60’s, in fact you just need to get out more period. The evil Corps. and the Republicans AND the Democrats control everything. There isn’t a whole lot of difference in the amounts given to politicians of both parties by the big Corps. Of course more goes to the party in control, if the Dems. win the House next month, they will start getting bigger donations, thats just the way it is.
As for 2008……since 2 years in politics is like a million in geological time, anything can happen, but as it now stands, you can look foreward to another Republican President. And I still say it will be John McCain. He has the creditials, and he has the balls to stand up to Bush when he feels it’s right to do so and the public likes it.