If we lose the Middle East to the extremists, will they be content to stop there?
In Iraq and Afghanistan, the coalitions` defeats continue slowly to unroll.
In Lebanon, it appears Hezbollah may win not only at the moral and mental, strategic and operational levels, but, astonishingly, at the physical and tactical levels as well. That outcome remains uncertain, but the fact that it is possible portends a revolutionary reassessment of what Fourth Generation War, or 4GW, forces can accomplish. If it actually happens, the walls of the temple that is the state system will be shaken world-wide.
In an interview this week with the BBC, Jordan`s King Abdullah II warned that the map of the Middle East was becoming unrecognizable and its future appeared ‘dim.’
Washington, which in its hubris ignores both its friends and its enemies, refusing to talk to the latter or listen to the former, does not grasp that if the flanks collapse, it is the end of our adventures in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Also, in the long term, Israel`s existence depends on arriving at some sort of modus vivendi with the region. The replacement of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the House of Saud with the Muslim Brotherhood would make that possibility fade.
To the region, America`s apparently unconditional and unbounded support for Israel and its occupation of Iraq are part of the same picture. For a military historian, the question arises: will history see Iraq as America`s Stalingrad?
The “map of the Middle East” is to a significant extent a creation of colonial powers. While a deal of natural and geopolitical boundaries were retained over the past century of colonial retreat — unwilling in most cases — regions and fiefdoms were often transformed into nation-states which everyone was supposed to respect.
The problem is, of course, the people who actually lived there for the past couple of millenia didn’t agree and don’t forget. So, protecting Xhristianity, oil rights and easy access to the Mediterannean for corporate shipping gave us Lebanon, Kuwait and other bits of gerrymandering that ignorant crusaders are now willing to have our young people fight and die for.
As for Stalingrad. Well, that was a heroic turning point in the war against fascism. I’m not especially confident about deciding whether our commander-in-chief is Stalin or Hitler.
See also Seymour Hersch’s recent article in which he reveals that even hawkish Rumsfeld may have had serious reservations concerning US support for Israel’s all out war against Lebanon:
A Western diplomat said that he understood that Rumsfeld did not know all the intricacies of the war plan. “He is angry and worried about his troops” in Iraq, the diplomat said. Rumsfeld served in the White House during the last year of the war in Vietnam, from which American troops withdrew in 1975, “and he did not want to see something like this having an impact in Iraq.” Rumsfeld’s concern, the diplomat added, was that an expansion of the war into Iran could put the American troops in Iraq at greater risk of attacks by pro-Iranian Shiite militias.
At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on August 3rd, Rumsfeld was less than enthusiastic about the war’s implications for the American troops in Iraq. Asked whether the Administration was mindful of the war’s impact on Iraq, he testified that, in his meetings with Bush and Condoleezza Rice, “there is a sensitivity to the desire to not have our country or our interests or our forces put at greater risk as a result of what’s taking place between Israel and Hezbollah. . . . There are a variety of risks that we face in that region, and it’s a difficult and delicate situation.”
Sounds like a perfect setting for the end of the world.
Moss,
Don’t forget Israel was created because of what happened in Europe. I’m still trying to figure out what the Palestinians did during WW2 that caused the world to try and push them out… If it’s to get the Jewish people a safe haven from Facism, shouldn’t they have taken a chunk out of Europe instead? But, that’s the good thing about colonies. You can always open another countries borders rather than your own…
And before anyone starts about Israel being given by g-d to the jews… The Israelies of 2000 years ago exist in as much fact as the Romans of 2000 years ago. A religious belief is different from a people of a nationstate.
Now, that being said, any middle easterner know that before WW1 and 2, Jews, Christians and Muslims lived in the middle east together PEACEFULLY for hundreds of years. Well, Sephardic jews anyway… The Ashkenazi’s (European Jews from Central Europe) are the newcomers…
This article points out a lot of bad news regarding the Middle East, but fails to mention what may be the worse news of all. We have no true internal ally in the general population in Iraq and and most of the rest of the Middle East. The President’s statement of “Mission Accomplished” illustrates just how poorly he understood diplomatic and military history. A more accurate statement at the time would have been, “we are here, take us to your leader. You don’t have one? Oh, crap…”.
The article points out, “Washington, which in its hubris ignores both its friends and its enemies”, but assumes it was just arrogance, and not a plain old lack of understanding of what they were attempting. The only two examples of a similar action resulting in even a temporary success would be British intervention in Palestine and Malaysia. In both of those cases, there were internal factions which held mutual interests with Britain and provided local stability to the new government. Iraq should never have been a military operation until the political and diplomatic groundwork was in place with a viable group to manage Iraq after Saddam was ousted. Ninety percent of the State Department and the Pentagon knew this. It was one of the reasons there was a constant call, during the planning stage, for more troops, and for Powell’s “Pottery Barn” comment. A stronger coalition might have helped, but the critical missing link was, and still is, knowing who the hell you are there to help. Iraq isn’t a military failure, it is political and diplomatic incompetence.
No, Iraq is not a Stalingrad. Rreasons: 1.) true military might has not be used; 2.) Iraq will not stop Globalization, it just might confirm it’s Islamic outcome; 3.) Iraq can be militarily handled, if we are willing to accept the world wide condemnation, WW2 Germany did everything possible to destroy and conquer Stalingrad we haven’t; 4.) The best view would be France’s Alegeria experiance, except we haven’t gone to such political and militarily extents.
No Iraq is not a Stalingrad, it’s a step towards a unified Middle East with Iran at it’s head. With Europe, Africa, SE Asia and the Middle East under Muslim control, their next true target will be North America
Stalingrad?
I thought that movie was about a titanic struggle between desperate industrial powers, with mother nature finally intervening in the form of ice and snow. This situation seems considerably more lopsided than that one.
They didn’t have satellite TV back then, either, so that the losers could attempt to tell the world that they really “won” the battle, simply by preaching to their various choirs how brave they were.
But then again, maybe m.n. will intervene again this time, saying, “Sorry, the long-stored fossil energy’s all gone. Party’s over.”
But then still again, maybe there’s a silver lining in that… No more global warming!!
“Peace cannot be kept by force, only achieved through understanding”
– Einstein
(and such understanding must surely come from all sides, or else forget it)
On post 6. I agree that Iraqi was used effectively in re-electing Bush. Unfortunately, until not that long ago Republicans were doing enough right and the Dems doing enough wrong to insure that result. The Republicans still may not have screwed up badly enough in the eyes of the average voter to be tossed wholesale in the next elections. Personally, I would like to see a lot of the fringe elements single agenda jerks on both sides have their clocks cleaned on election day. Sending Cynthia McKinney home and not letting Ralph Reed in, was a good start.
I thought that movie was about …
Yeah, it was just a movie…
When all you know about the history and political situation of the world comes from movies and infotainment cable news channels, it’s no wonder you had no idea what you were getting yourself into…
The maps of the Middle East will not define their true borders until redrawn by local yokel cartographers. So lets burn all the oil out, forcing the white man to find other ways to drive his toys and cool his heated brow, and leave these folks to devise their own destinies.
“Jordan`s King Abdullah II warned that the map of the Middle East was becoming unrecognizable and its future appeared ‘dim.’”
The only leaders in the Middle East deeply worried with the current situation are the ones with the most power and the biggest borders. They owe their power to the ‘colonial’ history that has drawn the various borders over the centuries. Signficant changes to power, influence and reach potentially take them out of power.
The population remains under the heavy influence of the local religious leaders who are extending radicalism into every facet of life for the common folk. Political leaders in this region only influence the Western political leaders.
Before these borders were drawn, the local imams ruled. And it appears to be headed that way soon again. The current “rulers” of these countries must be very concerned as so many factions increase their influence.
for those who want to have a winner and a loser in the Israeli/Hezbollah fighting….this article would be good reading.
I have to agree with 95% of what it says, and if you follow with an open mind Middle Eastern politics, I think you will agree with most of it as well.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1070-2311756,00.html
As to Iraq….I honestly used to believe that we weren’t getting all the facts about all the good things we have done there…..I still believe there are many, many things good that our guys have done. But, I’m afraid this experiment in democracy is over….we need to give the present goverment 4 or 5 months tops to get it together and then we need to pull our troops out to Kuwait and the Kurdish areas. Mainly to keep Iran from charging into the country immediatly after we leave.
Or…we need to go after Muqtar Al Sadar and his militia as hard as we can, and tell Maliki that he has to weed them out of the goverment or we are gone….
#13. The fact that we were not getting more news about successful humanitarian efforts in Iraq actually reveals a deeper truth about the situation – reporters could not get out and see it without putting their lives at risk. some of the more hilarious Orwellian moments have been when war propenents have complained about reporters or war critics not going into the hinterlands and seeing school construction, etc. With a good lather going they say, “They should just drive around and see …” And then they realize that they are setting themselves up for having to say “in an armored convoy” and, in essence, conceding that the situation is as bad as their critics have maintained.
but yes, this experiment in bestowing democracy on others is over.
To #10:
I am unable to have any TV where I live… no cable (too many trees), and the only broadcast signal I can get is the Pat Robertson channel
As a result the place is crammed with books, many of them history ones, and some of those are about WWII (which for some reason continues to fascinate me a lot).
I was just trying to make a joke about the movie poster graphic, which didn’t come across very well…gotta watch that, I guess.
(the movie Stalingrad of a few years ago was sort of interesting, I thought, although probably a little colored by the politics of the Germans who made it).
15,
TREES???
Neet…
Run a wire to the top of one, and get ALL the signal you want..
Or
Top a tree 40′ up, and install a antenna..
MAKE sure to add a ground wire, as lightnining ISNT particular WHAt it hits..