Victim’s shoe at soccer field bombing, this week.
Warnings by top US generals of a growing threat of civil war in Iraq are confronting US policymakers with somber questions about the future of a costly three year old mission to stabilize the country.
Civil war would force the United States to choose between withdrawing its troops or take sides in what could become a wider regional conflict.
Senator John Warner, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, warned that if Iraq does descend into civil war the administration may have to seek a new mandate from the US Congress.
“If that were to come about, I think the American people would ask, ‘Well, which side are we going to fight on? Or do we fight both? And did we send our troops there to do that? We thought we sent them there to liberate the Iraqis, which we have done at a great sacrifice, 2,500-plus”…
“Unsettling though it may sound, the United States could end up with no alternative to pulling out of a country that had degenerated into chaos,” said Loren Thompson, director of the Lexington Institute, a Washington group that specializes in military analysis.
“It seems improbable but our role in Iraq is to build democracy so if the center doesn’t hold, there is nothing left to defend,” he said.
A withdrawal of US forces in the midst of a civil war would be “a huge defeat for American diplomacy, in fact possibly the greatest defeat ever,” he said.
“However, there is no point in sticking around to preside over a meltdown. If a country is going to divide along sectarian lines it would be very dubious strategy to try to prevent a natural process from unfolding,” he said.
Read the article. There are several more opinions — not a lot of choices.
The “choice” is a rhetorical question, of course. How much choice have we had in the decision, so far?
What happened to Colin Powell’s “Pottery Barn” rule?
Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld broke the beejeebies out of Iraq but they keep saying only the Iraqis can clean up the mess!
Colin Powell quit while he was ahead.
Powell QUIt because no-one was listening to HIM.
Iv forcasted either a civil war or Overwhelming incursions from ALL sides, sence Sadam was captured.
Give them ALL guns and tell them to SHOOT each other, or DEFEND their country, from the religious Zealots that WANt their country.
I’ve yet to hear a decent arugment as to why this problem doesn’t just “go aware” once the U.S. pulls out. Here’s the logic…
1. With only each other to fight, and no one to provoke them, cooler heads will prevail and rebuild the country. The country being rebuilt as a republic, under some sort of federal system, or three separate nations is meaningless… and will only be solved after fighting ends. The Iraqi people doesn’t need to be taught what democracy is, they already get it.
2. If Iran attempts to gain power they’ll be blocked by all three groups in Iraq (Suni, Shite, Kurd). While they may not like each other, they all like Iran, and the prospect of being under a dictatorship, less.
3. With the U.S. out, the powers that be in Saudia Arabia and other Arab states will be more inclined to pitch in with infrastructure rebuilding, because it will be seen as Arabs-helping-Arabs (something that rarely happens), it will increase oil production (to make more money, not to lower your gas price), and it will show Arabs succeeding where Christians (America) “failed”.
In the end the failure of Bush & Company won’t be seen as invading Iraqi, it will be seen as not letting an intelligent people solve their own problems.
Somebody should ask the Brits what it’s like keeping a Colonial presence between warring Arab/Persian factions. Doesn’t anyone in this administration read history, or do they think they’re immune from repeating historical follies? You couldn’t design a worse situation to put troops into. This is a no win scenario. Bush created a power vacuum, now it has to be filled. Damn it, now I got to take an Ativan and lie down.
James, and I mean this with all sincerity, your three short paragraphs are the most concise accurate statement of the issue I’ve seen.
I post something intelligent and misuse words in two places. Damn.
James, that’s wishful thinking, which is what put us in this situation to begin with. Iran is supporting the Shiites, and the current PM supports Iran. If we withdraw early, then Iran moves in.
First we need to make sure the president knows the difference between Sunnis and Shiites.
AB CD, under that logic we should stay in Iraq to build it as a proxy to fight Iran. Granted, that’s what we’re doing, but as a member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (C) I’m not allowed to discuss such things.
Unfortunetly the Kurds or the Shiites aren’t going for that…
…nor would the Kurds and the Sunnis go for Iran getting involved in Iraqi politics to any great degree. Saying the PM supports Iran doesn’t mean shit: A lot of Arabs, regardless of religion, support Iran because there is nothing to be gained by not supporting Iran.
Likewise, the thought that Iran moves in can’t be backed up because they’ve already moved in and are only fueling the insurgency. If we pull out the insurgency is more likely to end, so the country can begin rebuilding and the people can make (American help and influence free) money, than things breaking down into a civil war.
Granted, under this scenario there will be Iranian influence among the Shiites. So what? There’s nothing to be gained by there not being Iranian influence (in other words, Iran’s sphere of influence isn’t going to get larger or smaller).
Hey Stephen Colbert is right, the only person capable of fixing this mess and dealing with these crazy people is Saddam H himself, yeah! BringSaddamBack.com and let’s get some peace and quiet in that part of the world!
On another note can’t stop thinking about that compelling presentation by the old man Colin at the UN with satellite pictures of trucks delivering WMD from site to site in Irak – It should be aired on Sci-fi, don’t you think?
Finally, sad to say but the French were right – there is no shame in being wrong B&Co –
James Hill is absolutely correct. Too bad Bush’s masters
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/sa.html
won’t accept the loss of revenue.
>satellite pictures of trucks delivering WMD from site to site in Irak
Are you saying Powell never made such a presentation, or do you think the pictures were faked? Or do you think they’re real and that it was just a coincidence that trucks were being loaded up while the inspectors were coming?
So you agree Iran is fueling the insurgency, but think they’ll stop if the US pulls out? You think all the other groups will accept rule by Iran or their proxies? Perhaps it would just be like Lebanon with Shiite militias controlling some parts of the country.
I think we need to let them hold the worlds largest cage match. We seal the borders (like we should have done to begin with) and let them fight it out.
ab cd, as usual, managed to miss the live coverage about the WMD trucks. Dude, either your TV only receives Fox Snooze — or there’s a disconnect when the talking head says something like, “today in Iraq, American forces found the trucks that Colin Powell mistakenly identified as carrying WMD”.
Even Powell has apologized for that one. And, NO, you’ll have to GOOGLE it, yourself. As I’ve said, before — someone commenting online and purporting to be an adult who can find his keyboard and mouse on his own — can point-and-click at more than one result in a search engine.
Just leave out RNC as a requirement for the search.
James Hill. As I read your post #4, I was thinking that this is very well thought out and presented. I don’t agree entirely (I’m just back with a new cast on my foot so I’m real ornery), but I will give you credit. That is one of the most persuasive arguments I have seen on this blog. A tip of the hat.
But you are full of crap because …
🙂
James Hill. As I read your post #4, I was thinking that this is very well thought out and presented. I don’t agree entirely (I’m just back with a new cast on my foot so I’m real ornery), but I will give you credit. That is one of the most persuasive arguments I have seen on this blog. A tip of the hat.
But you are full of crap because …
🙂
16, I would love to see them SEAl the borders, and should have done YEARS ago.
but its to late. to many are already in the country to cause desention.
While the civil war runs, other groups will join in, and try to gain rulership, keep the fighting going until 1 side wins, and take over.
well america face it thers no way you can win no one really like
the american in iraq the rather eat dirt then see america rule in the region
who you think fund the so call terrorist you guess right yours truly the good old us maybe you too young it all start it in the 80 with the russians
in Afghanistan everything comes back.
#21, eddie, I have no idea what on earth you are trying to say. Take some more of the little pink and blue capsules and get back to us.
Great post James Hill……echoing some points that I made a week or 2 ago in another of the Iraq topics here.
To the ones who worry about Iran taking over……not going to happen in the Kurd controlled areas. These areas have been functioning well since the first gulf war and wouldn’t have a problem with going it alone.
We need to tell the P.M. that either he disarms the militias or we go in 4 months. He won’t, and we should. Pull our troops into Kuwait and the Kurdish controlled areas, and offer aid to both places to upgrade their military to ward off Iran.
By February 1980, the Washington Post reported that the mujahideen was receiving arms coming from the U.S. government.
I’m really starting to think that AB CD is either Bush, Cheney or Rummie in disguise.
ok….I can’t get this comment to go through…says the page is gone….so now I KNOW he is one of them.
The mujahideen were significantly financed, armed, and trained by the United States (during the Carter and Reagan administrations) and by Pakistan (during the Zia-ul-Haq military regime), the People’s Republic of China, and Saudi Arabia. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was the interagent used in the majority of these activities to disguise the sources of support for the resistance.
Ronald Reagan praised them as freedom fighters, and the 1988 Rambo III, portrayed them as heroic. This connection is ironic, in light of the future turn of events in which many of the same men would end up as a major threat to the United States. This sort of blowback, in which a state helped to create a force to fight another state, only to have that force turn against them, was seen earlier in the 20th century, e.g., the German support for the Bolshevik underground in Russia which led to a Soviet Union and the eventual occupation of East Germany by the Red Army.
you want more info
Is there any connection between the Shiites in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Syria? If the USA is back some Shiites, does that mean the USA is also backing Hezbollah? If the USA backs Israel in fighting Hezbollah, does that mean the Shiites in Iraq will not be too pleased with USA?
The USA hopes:
Shiites in Iraq help form a nice government.
Shiites in Iran do not get nuclear power.
Shiites in Hezbollah stop being terrorist.
Can the USA talk out of both ends and stradle the fence to create peace in the middle east?
Moss, I don’t see anything relevant to the point I was making. I checked out Powell’s presentation, and the case was even stronger than I thouht. It wasn’t just satellite photos of trucks at places where such activity was unusual, but also audiotapes. Here’s one example: We have this modified vehicle. What do we say if one of them sees it? What is their concern? Their concern is that it’s something they should not have, something that should not be seen.
The general was incredulous: “You didn’t get it modified. You don’t have one of those, do you?”
“I have one.”
“Which? From where?”
“From the workshop. From the Al-Kindi Company.”
“What?”
“From Al-Kindi.”
“I’ll come to see you in the morning. I’m worried you all have something left.”
“We evacuated everything. We don’t have anything left.”
Large parts of Powell;s case turned out to be wrong, but I don’t see why the innocent explanation should be believed for all this, especially given what has been learned from Project Harmony.
My brief comments: We should never have went, we should leave, right now.
28. The US also dearly hopes that the Shiite government we helped set up (and our soldiers are being killed and wounded to sustain) does not decide to start supporting Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. Given the Iraqi PM’s comments a few weeks ago, that is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.
whee! Nation-building is FUN!!