Letter from China: Is the U.S. plunging into ‘historical error’? – Asia – Pacific – International Herald Tribune — Dvorak Uncensored has added the International Herald Tribune daily international news feed to the sidebar. In the process readers should note that some excellent editorials appear in the publication as exemplified by the one linked here.
SHANGHAI Once upon a time, there was a superpower jealous of the unrelenting modernization of its rival. Desperate to maintain some kind of parity, it spent and spent on its military – so much so that other needs went neglected, and it collapsed.
It may be time to update this tale, which like many fables has a strong element of truth to it, for today we could be reliving this story, albeit in surprisingly reconfigured terms.
For the next decade or two there will continue to be only one superpower in the world, the United States. China’s rise to superpower status seems all but inevitable, but what is remarkable is that China is the country whose modernization is unrelenting, while the United States, not even seriously challenged yet, appears tempted to follow the Soviet example.
Put another way, unless things are thought through more clearly, the United States could let insecurity undermine its self-confidence, plunging toward what the Chinese are fond of calling “a historical error.”
It goes on. Here I should add a personal comment. Often and especially on talk radio you hear a lot of chit-chat about China from one blowhard after another who has never been to China. I would say that in a lifetime of travelling there is more BS about China than any single place on earth. Going to China is fun and cheap (more cheap than anything). I’d advise anyone who can take some time off to make a trip to China to go there to get a clue. Shanghai right now is probably the most modern and most interesting ‘hotspot” in the world. It’s jumpin’. But you have to experience it to understand what’s really going on. Please go! You will not regret it.
That said, when I talk with Chinese friends about the great time I have in China someone invariably says, “Yeah, because you are not Chinese.” Hm.
One of the ways to stay in touch with what’s going on in China is CCTV9 [US designation]. It’s especially interesting because it is the English-language service for China. So, you also realize what the Chinese government wants to communicate to their own citizens.
If you’re receiving Hi-Def broadcasts from DirecTV, the P3 dish gives you the feed on channel 455 at no extra charge. It’s available on a number of other services — if you look for it.
My wife and I have favorite programs — especially Travelogue, Biz News, Dialogue and Rediscovering China. I’ve never seen their English as a 2nd language contest; but, they award scholarships to students who best learn to speak “American” English.
I’ve suggested they invite John to their Dialogue program. I think they could survive a visit from our leading Cranky Geek.
Yeah just like the Soviets, except for the capitalism here which keeps the system from collapsing. Military spending is relatively low.
John,
I just went down the list of 15 headlines -checking on the “registration required” screen I got with Maureen Dowd’s column, yesterday.
It only repeats on Thomas Friedman’s column – today – so they appear to limit “reg req’d” to editorials, not their own headlines.
Makes sense, now that I know it isn’t “random”.
Thanks for adding the links.
Whatever just another propaganda letter to help them start a revolution or somin in china
China has historically been the victims of civil war, and foreign invasions. The Chinese culture has been a peaceful culture. Unlike many “industrial countries”, it has no history of invading another country for the sake of “expansion”, “maintaining stability” or “becoming a world police”. Perhaps “opium war”, “the rape of Nanking” would be a starter for those who may try to gain an understanding of China. Did you know the British museum possess the largest amount of ancient Chinese treasure and artifacts in the world, outside of China? They also possessed numerous collections from other countries/cultures. How many British colonies are there in the world? Did you know Britain attacked China because she refused to buy opium from Britain?
Fear is derived from ignorance. For those who travel to China, don’t just go to the eastern developing cities. Try to visit other parts of the country such as the North West regions. You can be sure that the term superpower is over-used. The living standard of vast major of Chinese is still sub-standard. The unemployment rate and illiteracy rate in those regions are relatively high.
Would a government be focusing on military power when it’s citizens are struggling with the basic necessary of life: shelter, food, education, etc? I think not. The only rationale for maintaining a military force is for “national security”. Any country who has been victimized would naturally develop a “national security” program. Have we seen that before?
The priority for a developing country is to provide adequate resources and needs to its citizen through education, employment, effective national programs.
Fear comes from insecurity of oneself. If you’ve never been to China, don’t jump to conclusion just yet. May be a vacation there would open your eyes and mind.
The US has a system that is flexible enough to change. China will only get so far and hit the dictatorship wall. They may reform but it will be bloody. If they don’t, they will be like Japan: stuck at just-short-of-greatness.
Sorry, but this pro-China stuff is starting to sound too much like the pro-Japanese crap from the 80’s.
What’s happened to Japan? Their high tax rate has made it prohibitive for someone in the middle class to gain more goods and services, while our middle class is beginning to enjoy luxuries reserved for the rich (example: How many middle class families had maids in the 50s, as opposed to today?)
The catch? The Japanese had a choice in the matter… they’re a democracy.
As an aisde, a number of the people on my team at work are located in our Beijing office. They’re nice people, work hard, and are greatful for what they have. Hopefully our two countries can continue to work together for the betterment of both.
James, this is different. For one thing nobody is saying we should be “more like China” the way it was with japan. What I’m trying to say is that we need to be honest about China if we are to work/deal/compete with them effectively.
Yeah just like the Soviets, except for the capitalism here which keeps the system from collapsing.
Except we didn’t have Dell, Apple, et. al. building computers in the USSR. We didn’t have Walmart buying goods from USSR suppliers…
We went toe-to-toe with the USSR, and got them to over-extend themselves to the point they couldn’t pay their own military, or retirees…
We are now over-extending ourselves – with mounting deficts – knowing full-well that we haven’t solved the Social Security / Medicare funding problems…
We have bugets submitted without costs for the War on Terror – which are submitted in a separate bill – so that our bugets don’t look quite as bad…
Are we ready to go toe-to-toe with the PRC – Taiwan, North Korea, South China Sea – while we are on the wrong end of the capitalist money-train connecting our two countries??
For those trying to understand where the USA is headed, maybe it’s time to take a good look at the following text:
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Edward Gibbon — available at any Internet bookseller.
I think Djibouti, Africa would be a contender with China for the prize in its level of filth. But at least plastic bags grow on trees in the “suburbs”, which is pretty cool.
A friend of mine spent a couple of months over there installing equipment in a new chip fab.
I heard similar stories from co-workers at a semiconductor equipment supplier – but those stories were related to me in the mid/late 90’s.
They weren’t so much about “filth” as they were about the scary lack of environmental protections. Wafer fabs use a lot of nasty chemicals & poisons – and my co-workers were scared when they saw residues & process exhausts were just being dumped/piped outside…
Is that still going on, 10-years later???
China is advancing.
china is importing at Inflated prices from Everyone.
From metals, to Trees.
They are rebuilding their country, and jumping on the band wagon, ALL at once.
they are under cutting other countries with Manufactouring and exports.
Even Taiwan is complaining.
We give China a Favored status, even tho their human rights are a Sham.
they are cornering the market on Major goods and materials, and exporting them and charging US/we for the bill.. And the companies HERE dont see whats happening.
“I have a friend who saw…” then, plug in whatever snippet of bigotry, adulation, crappola or praise you like. What does a sentence like that have to do with reality? It’s not even the first-person level of apocrypha we’d expect from a tourist much less a journalist like John.
I’ve worked with American firms that built start-ups in Japan, Taiwan and China. The best of them worked to maintain internationally-accepted standards. The worst bribed locals to get away with whatever they could do — to maximize profits.
From reading tech articles and trades, it appears Western firms like Applied Materials have been in China for a couple of decades. It would be likely that those firms building fabs 10 years ago were probably American — especially if they hired American construction supervisors. Same thing, this year. It’s not like a Chinese-owned firm or a Taiwan-owned firm especially needs American advisors around any longer.
The Chinese make it clearer than anyone they have a long way to go to achieve the best standards of ecology the world targets. Standards our own government tries to revoke! Moving one country forward from the Dark Ages to the 19th Century to the 21st Century is one hell of a task…especially when often ideologically opposed by a superpower trying to move the rest of the world back to the 19th Century.
JCD, fair point, but being honest about communist nations hasn’t exactly been the United States’ strong point. Don’t we come out looking like hypocrits when embracing China’s capitalist moves while ignoring their communist system?
Nevertheless, I agree that we need to be open and honest about working with them. For example, when working with those on my team in Beijing, I need to constantly reiterate that it’s OK to ask questions. What’s considered a sign of stupidity in their culture is something that has to happen for them to understand what I want them to do on a daily basis.
In contrast, while getting them to open up is a challenge, getting people here (in Utah) to work effectivly with them is equally difficult. At my office there are a number of people who bitch about the process, and many simply don’t do it.
Do you see the misinformation many in the US have about China being the same as the misunderstandings many had about the USSR in the 80s?
It’s the oldest towns and cities that have the really dangerous crud — like from the 19th Century, Mike. Tanneries, plating works, etc.. Scarey stuff in the ground and groundwater. All exempt from responsibility of modern cleanups regardless of what they knew.
Mike you made the point. We DO have Dell, Apple, WalMart etc. How much did the Soviets spend on military hardware, and waht percent is the US spending. Medicare and Social Security could become disasters, but that has nothing to with the military. Even the deficit is fairly low, for now.
18,
dont forget Trojan plant.
When the Power comapny wanted(and probably did) pass the decom charges to the User fees, insted of letting the stock holders take it in the shorts.
6. China “has no history of invading another country for the sake of “expansion”, “maintaining stability” or “becoming a world police”.
It does have a history of advancing into Central Asia. Imperial China was doing it at the same time Tsarist Russia was.
Past performance is not a prediction of the future, however.
And comparisons of the US to the USSR are inapt. The latter was spending like 30% of its GDP on the military towards the end. The US is nowhere close. As the population ages, the US is looking at serious degradation of its competitiveness unless it gets health care costs under control, and free-market ideology is no help in that regard, since traditional market economics does not work in that arena.
Social Security could rather easily be fixed by moving the cap on taxed earnings up somewhat, and I imagine as the boomers continue to retire, their electoral clout will make that happen.
And the US’s current imbroglio overseas is actually fairly small-scale, compared to Korea or Vietnam, so I have trouble seeing that as actual imperial overstretch.
Structurally, the big problem is that weath is becoming more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer hands. Right now, the top 1% make as much as the bottom 35%, and it looks to only get worse.
22,
tibet, mongolia, Koria…..And I think there are a few others…
#20 Medicare and Social Security could become disasters, but that has nothing to with the military. Even the deficit is fairly low, for now.
Nothing to do with the military?
How will we maintain, let alone raise, the military buget when even with the surplus income from SS taxes we are still running a deficit? Once the surplus SS income is gone, will we just raise SS taxes and/or tell all the people who have been paying them all their adult lives: “You F’d-up, you trusted us!”?
It bothers me that percent of GDP is always quoted, when we have so many drains on our economy.
Our trade deficit is funneling our money overseas.
Immigrants [legal or otherwise] are sending vast sums of money to Mexico, Cuba, etc – enough to account for a significant share of those countries GDP… e.g.
Immigrants in the USA sent $40 billion to their relatives and friends in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2005, according to the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2006-04-11-immigrants-payments-home_x.htm
The CBO’s outlook for 2007 – 2016 demonstrates we know the ride is going to be bumpy:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdoc.cfm?index=7027&type=1
Page 15: Over the longer term, the aging of the U.S. population
combined with rapidly rising health care costs will put
significant strains on the federal budget, which begin to
be evident within the projection period.
I just wish I saw more evidence we were planning on doing something about it…
It’s easy to criticize others but fail to look at our own backyard. On one hand some may think of China’s cheap goods are cornering the market, one the other hand, who are the companies that build factories in China? Could it be the multi-national companies? Can you name American companies (e.g. Coco Cola, Walmart, GM), European companies (e.g. Nokia, SAP)?
Have you ever heard of an economic concept called “competitive advantage”? How about “economy of scale”?
How can we enjoy, as consumers in North America, inexpensive goods and at the same time complaint about China’s cheap labour?
China is a developing country with many social, economic, health, environmental, educational challenges and issues. It takes political will to make progressive changes which require time. A country which undergoes rapid and drastic changes could have undesirable and disastrous result. An example of which is the former USSR. I think it’s reasonable to say that each countries have their problems and it would take time, polical will and some ingenuity to derive resolutions. How long have we had a health reform, if it’s not already overdue?
Since the 1980’s I’ve travelled to China on numerous personal and business occasions. Everytime I discovered something new and unique. I’ve made many friends who prefered to stay in China because they believe opportunities are abundant. They also believe that the Chinese government policies are changing and adapting to market demand. It is a delicate balance for the government. From an outsider, we would never understand the kind of challenges, resistance, bureaucratic world they face governing over 1 billion people. However after learning about their culture and some of their languages, I begin to realize that it is a peaceful culture which is adapting to the western ideas. It is not easy to understand a culture if you have not lived or visit the country. I share with you my perspective about China because I’ve travelled, lived and made friends there.
Through understanding of one another, and working as partners, I am certain there is hope in developing a mutually beneficial relationship. One which is based on trust and good faith.
“Our mind is like a parachute…it works when it’s open”
24,
I wonder…
would you accept a NEW policy on Imports, then the tarriff system…
How about a MAX retail, insted of a tarriff..
ALl imports that are resold, are sold at 10-1000 times there price, including the tarriff…
If we imposed a MAX price resale on the goods, then profit mongering Corps couldnt make the profits “THEY THINK” they need, and could curtail price gouging, as well as corps seeing products that THEY CANT make money on(anymore).