Although this report is very small and may have problems with it, there are indications that AIDS may be slowly mutating into a less deadly virus.
A team at the Institute of Tropical Medicine, in Antwerp, compared HIV-1 samples from 1986-89 and 2002-03.
They found the newer samples appeared not to multiply as well, and were more sensitive to drugs – some other studies argue they are becoming more resistant.
“Obviously this virus is still causing death, although it may be causing death at a slower rate of progression now. Maybe in another 50 to 60 years we might see this virus not causing death.”
Has there ever been a virus that got weaker?
The theory is that often diseases start off being particularly lethal (e.g., bird flu) and become less lethal over time. The idea is that a longer-lasting disease has more of a chance to spread than a quickly lethal disease, and so it is selected for. Eventually disease and host become relatively tolerant of each other.
Not being a doctor, I can’t be sure, but I think all do eventually. As it said in the article, they get weaker as they are passed from person to person. Think of the flu virus. In a sense you could say a particular flu virus mutates like that until it is different enough that it no longer passes to others, or is easily overcome by the body and can’t be passed on, etc.
I’d like to know where they got those samples from. There have been “superstrains” popping up in Africa and the US, which kill faster and are more resistant to drug therapies.
When it comes to science, EVERYTHING is possible. There are some things that are more possible, however, and those things generally happen more often, like the 40+ million people with HIV, the VAST majority of them in Africa, and the VAST majority slated to exhibit AIDS within 5-7 years of infection.
It’s cute that some try to make people a bit more hopeful, but doctor-directed marijuana therapy is much better and much more productive, especially with late-stage, full blown AIDS, and a handful of pills three times a day.
AB CD,
Yes – many viruses and bacteria. Small Pox comes to mind off the top of my head. Syphillus as well.
Viruses are like any other living things that want to survive. So it is in the best interest of the virus that the host lives longer. HIV-1 may be mutating into something that does not kill the host so quickly. I would not say that virus is getting weaker but instead the virus is trying to live longer.
To answer the question about if any viruses developed into weaker strains, smallpox has two forms, major and minor. The major form will cause death in 20 to 40 percent of the hosts while the minor is down to 1 percent death rate.
Maybe HIV-1 will have a couple of different forms. Some more deadly than others.
Its not the a Virus’s best survival to kill the host too fast. I agree with bac. Its not weaker, just slower.
Speaking of viruses… am I the only person who has absolutely no confidence in Bush & Co’s planning for the Avian Bird Flu virus?
Over in this part of the world, Bird Flu is making large bold headlines in the newspaper. Even fairly lax goverments are taking this seriously.
This could just be huge but I’m wondering if Bush is treating this risk the same way they delt with the New Orleans levees. .. just pretend like the risk doesn’t exist and hope it doesn’t break out on their watch.
Greg,
What do you want? They just bought 4 mil dollars worth of Tamiflu, (which has an expiration date on it)….although, I’m sure that there is an absolutely flawless plan to get it out of the warehouse….. if they remember where they put it, and it will get out to those who need it… if the right papers have their i’s dotted and t’s crossed, and is done in triplicate, with all the necessary approvals and required signatures and stamps affixed…….. assuming that, unlike in 1918 Switzerland, 80% of the government work force isn’t down with the flu. (Gee, and they only lost 50% of their population!)
Meetsy,
I want a safe vaccine and a totally vaccinated public. I’m just a layman but this seems like a reasonable thing for government to do.
(I’m sure four million dollars of Tamiflu would be helpful… but that must be a drop in the bucket for all 300 million Americans. And Tamiflu is after infection, right?)
Beyond that, I want my government to aggressively fight this plague at the source and to help other countries get vaccinated in a big way.
This is another case of being “pound wise” since it will cost us FAR MORE to have this deadly virus enter a vulnerable population.
The lowest death estimate I’ve heard for this virus is five million dead and the top is 150 million dead.
That’s MAJOR LEAGUE! And it deserves a MAJOR effort by our government. But, frankly, after Bush & Co’s bungling of the War on Terror, the tech sector crash and Katrina, I have no confidence in them to anticipate and respond to something of the magnitude.